What is Paddy Brennan's strike rate?

Paddy Brennan has won 137 of 581 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 23.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paddy Brennan do best at?

Huntingdon by strike rate: 13 wins from 38 rides (34.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paddy Brennan ride most for?

Fergal O'Brien, with 545 rides since 2022 — 94% of the total. That pairing has won 126 (23.1%).

What is Paddy Brennan's Fair A/E?

1.12, from 581 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paddy Brennan

581 rides in the last 5 seasons · 202 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Apr 2024 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

137–581

Wins / Runs

23.6%

Strike rate

n=581

256 (44%)

Placed

1.12

Fair A/E

n=581 · 0.98 incl. margin

−43.90

£1 level stake

n=581 at SP · −7.6%

£1.70m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

22.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 120 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 24% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.12). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 29% (141 rides). Rides mostly for Fergal O'Brien — 94% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 581 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jul Fresh horses: 24.7% 45.6% when favourite Fergal O'Brien: 23.1% from 545 LTO winners: 29.1% Rides the favourite in 28% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Huntingdon (34.2%, n=38), clear of the rider's 23.6% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (12.3% over 57 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 29.1% (n=141, Fair A/E 1.14), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 14.4% (n=90, Fair A/E 1.21). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 22.9% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.16 and +2.78 to a £1 stake over 118 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Fergal O'Brien supplies 94% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (23.1%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 12% over 75 rides, 11.6pts below the baseline. 66 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 2010, £270,798). The standout partner of the record: Pigeon Island (GB) — 8 wins from 32 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires May–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 23.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

22.9%−0.7

n=118 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +2.78

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

29.1%+5.5

n=141 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −18.99

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

24.7%+1.1

n=170 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −11.91

When favourite

45.6%

n=160 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +1.13

Big fields · 14+ runners

14.4%−9.2

n=90 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +2.85

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

14.5%−9.1

n=62 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −4.17

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 23.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 1 12% vs 23.6% · n=75

At Cheltenham 12.3% vs 23.6% · n=57

In Class 2 13.5% vs 23.6% · n=74

At Huntingdon 34.2% vs 23.6% · n=38

In Group / Graded races 14.5% vs 23.6% · n=62

With C&D winners 32.1% vs 23.6% · n=53

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 361 89 24.7% −1.07

Chase 134 34 25.4% −17.23

NH Flat 85 14 16.5% −24.60

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 270 76 28.1% +39.58

Good to Soft 146 29 19.9% −20.95

Soft 118 20 16.9% −63.90

Heavy 36 8 22.2% −4.64

Good to Firm 8 3 37.5% +0.51

Standard (AW) 3 1 33.3% +5.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 57 7 12.3% −17.29

Huntingdon 38 13 34.2% +14.53

Uttoxeter 38 10 26.3% +22.11

Chepstow 34 9 26.5% +4.77

Worcester 34 10 29.4% −2.89

Ludlow 31 9 29% −4.49

Newbury 30 5 16.7% −4.52

Market Rasen 27 6 22.2% −9.38

Warwick 27 5 18.5% −6.45

Southwell 22 6 27.3% −2.58

Taunton 22 3 13.6% −11.88

Newton Abbot 17 4 23.5% −8.89

Aintree 17 4 23.5% +10.73

Stratford 17 4 23.5% −6.90

Doncaster 15 5 33.3% +9.86

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 232 66 28.4% +12.36

Class 3 104 31 29.8% −22.20

Class 5 96 21 21.9% −3.12

Class 1 75 9 12% −17.17

Class 2 74 10 13.5% −13.77

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 174 77 44.3% 1.18 −0.74

2nd–3rd fav 212 42 19.8% 0.98 −41.16

4th–6th fav 134 15 11.2% 1.29 +19.00

7th+ in betting 61 3 4.9% 1.18 −21.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

87.9% completed · 495 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 134 77.6% 5 4 21 0 0

Hurdle 361 91.7% 2 4 22 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Accidental Legend (IRE) 14 4 6 6 Apr 24

Mortlach (GB) 12 5 7 19 Feb 23

School Days Over (IRE) 10 2 6 15 Jan 24

Peking Rose (GB) 8 2 4 4 Feb 24

Punctuation (GB) 8 4 4 27 Jan 24

Poetic Music (GB) 8 3 4 26 Oct 23

Great Heart'jac (FR) 8 2 2 14 May 23

Bonttay (IRE) 7 2 5 7 Feb 24

Young Buster (IRE) 7 4 4 27 Jan 24

Manothepeople (IRE) 6 4 4 17 Apr 24

Kamsinas (FR) 6 3 4 17 Apr 24

Go To War (IRE) 6 3 4 21 Mar 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 202 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

172420212627302420282823

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardFergal O'Brien

94% of all rides
23.1% SR · A/E 1.09

TrainerRWSR£1

Fergal O'Brien 545 126 23.1% −61.41

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,442

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£18.9m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 112 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Imperial Commander (IRE) — totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2010 · Class 1

£270,798

Inglis Drever (GB) — Ladbroke World Hurdle (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2007 · Class 1

£149,027

Imperial Commander (IRE) — Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2009 · Class 1

£125,422

Notable horses

Pigeon Island (GB) God's Own (IRE) Parsnip Pete (GB) Perfect Candidate (IRE) Kilbree Kid (IRE) Owen Na View (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Yeats (IRE) 43.8% · 14–32

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,844 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Kayf Tara (GB) 46.2% · 12–26

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,756 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Westerner (GB) 20.8% · 5–24

Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,858 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Shirocco (GER) 23.5% · 4–17

Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,185 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Ocovango (GB) 18.8% · 3–16

Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,013 runs since 2019 (308 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.8% from 196.

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 20% · 3–15

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,880 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 9,235 · newest first

The latest 50 of 9,235 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 17 April 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Apr 24 Cheltenham Manothepeople (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Weatherite Air Conditioning Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 26f · Good · 14 ran 1st 9/1

17 Apr 24 Cheltenham Moon D'orange (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien Safran Landing Systems Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 14 ran 13th 4/1F

17 Apr 24 Cheltenham Kamsinas (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien Kingston Stud Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20.5f · Good · 15 ran 14th 5/1

16 Apr 24 Ffos Las Denemethy (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien bettingsites.ltd.uk New Betting Sites Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 7 ran 6th 4/1

13 Apr 24 Aintree Tripoli Flyer (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 2nd 13/2

08 Apr 24 Wincanton Northern Air (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Golf Membership On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 5/1

06 Apr 24 Uttoxeter Accidental Legend (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Try The Racing App This Afternoon Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 23.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 1st 3/1

05 Apr 24 Musselburgh Teorie (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Go North Grey Bomber Juvenile Hurdle Series Final (Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 17.5f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 7/1

01 Apr 24 Huntingdon Gwash (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Follow Us On X At BetRhino Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 7th 15/2

27 Mar 24 Wincanton Plaisir Des Flos (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien Shares From 45 At racingclub.com Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 5/2J

27 Mar 24 Wincanton Denemethy (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Blackmore Vale Hurdle 1867 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 15f · Soft · 10 ran 1st 9/2

26 Mar 24 Taunton Ryan's Rocket (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Chetwood Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 13 ran 1st 8/13F

23 Mar 24 Newbury Endless Supply (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien British EBF BetVictor 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran PU 20/1

21 Mar 24 Ludlow Go To War (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Balfours LLP And Lycetts Insurance Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 7 ran 1st 4/7F

19 Mar 24 Wetherby Oak Grove (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Thank You Wetherby Groundstaff Groundsweek Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 6/4F

16 Mar 24 Uttoxeter Autonomous Cloud (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien bet365 Midlands Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 34f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 11/2

16 Mar 24 Uttoxeter Alaphilippe (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 23.5f · Heavy · 17 ran 11th 33/1

12 Mar 24 Cheltenham Teorie (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Premier Handicap) (GBB race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Heavy · 22 ran 10th 40/1

12 Mar 24 Cheltenham Highland Hunter (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 25f · Heavy · 21 ran PU 50/1

02 Mar 24 Newbury Northern Air (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Stewart Wright Memorial Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 11/4

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paddy Brennan's strike rate?: Paddy Brennan has won 137 of 581 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 23.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paddy Brennan do best at?: Huntingdon by strike rate: 13 wins from 38 rides (34.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paddy Brennan ride most for?: Fergal O'Brien, with 545 rides since 2022 — 94% of the total. That pairing has won 126 (23.1%).
What is Paddy Brennan's Fair A/E?: 1.12, from 581 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.