What is Timmy Murphy's strike rate?

Timmy Murphy has won 350 of 2,935 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Timmy Murphy do best at?

Perth by strike rate: 12 wins from 70 rides (17.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Timmy Murphy ride most for?

David Pipe, with 281 rides since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 57 (20.3%).

What is Timmy Murphy's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 2,926 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Timmy Murphy

2,935 rides in the lifetime window · 1,470 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2019

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

350–2,935

Wins / Runs

11.9%

Strike rate

n=2,935

845 (29%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=2,926 · 0.90 incl. margin

−609.22

£1 level stake

n=2,935 at SP · −20.8%

£5.28m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 240 times a season, across both codes, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 22% (374 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,935 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Oct–Dec 32.9% when favourite David Pipe: 20.3% from 281 LTO winners: 21.7% Rode the favourite in 11% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 21.7% (n=374, Fair A/E 1.15), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 7.9% (n=669, Fair A/E 0.99). David Pipe supplied 10% of the rides and beats the rider's average (20.3% vs 11.9%, A/E 1.35) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 37 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Grand National Chase Grade 3 at Aintree (Apr 2008, £450,640). The standout partner of the record was Ashkazar (FR) — 8 wins from 22 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Oct–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.2%−0.7

n=1,358 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −236.70

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

21.7%+9.8

n=374 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −15.03

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

11.8%−0.1

n=661 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −126.35

When favourite

32.9%

n=331 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −36.70

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.9%−4.0

n=669 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −195.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

13.5%+1.6

n=133 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −8.54

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 21.7% vs 11.9% · n=374

With Andrew Parker 27% vs 11.9% · n=37

With Pauline Robson 24.2% vs 11.9% · n=66

With Paul Nicholls 25.6% vs 11.9% · n=39

With David Pipe 20.3% vs 11.9% · n=281

With Alan Fleming 23.6% vs 11.9% · n=55

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,067 81 7.6% −252.47

Hurdle 1,012 118 11.7% −358.61

Chase 658 121 18.4% +18.74

NH Flat 198 30 15.2% −16.88

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 776 93 12% −247.91

Good to Soft 606 74 12.2% −112.86

Standard (AW) 584 48 8.2% −133.85

Soft 474 63 13.3% −131.72

Good to Firm 325 47 14.5% +28.29

Heavy 144 22 15.3% +2.63

Firm 26 3 11.5% −13.80

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 177 18 10.2% −53.08

Wolverhampton (AW) 163 14 8.6% −93.80

Kempton (AW) 159 12 7.5% −55.00

Lingfield (AW) 120 8 6.7% −31.63

Chepstow 110 16 14.5% +31.83

Newbury 109 12 11% −12.66

Chelmsford (AW) 92 7 7.6% +25.88

Wincanton 83 13 15.7% −27.39

Ascot 80 9 11.3% −26.40

Uttoxeter 76 9 11.8% −34.00

Sandown 72 12 16.7% −7.60

Huntingdon 72 7 9.7% −6.00

Taunton 71 10 14.1% +1.23

Perth 70 12 17.1% −18.16

Bath 68 6 8.8% −21.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 863 121 14% −202.66

Class 5 645 52 8.1% −217.52

Class 3 468 65 13.9% −2.25

Class 6 442 49 11.1% −77.84

Class 1 289 33 11.4% −78.08

Class 2 194 28 14.4% −4.17

Class 7 19 2 10.5% −11.70

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 392 124 31.6% 1.02 −35.49

2nd–3rd fav 697 123 17.6% 1.09 −75.23

4th–6th fav 880 74 8.4% 1.11 −133.50

7th+ in betting 966 29 3% 0.86 −365.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Ashkazar (FR) 21 8 9 18 Apr 13

The Package (GB) 18 2 10 12 Mar 13

Merigo (FR) 15 4 6 9 Mar 13

Great Endeavour (IRE) 15 4 7 15 Mar 12

Camdora (IRE) 14 2 6 2 Feb 17

Vertige Dore (FR) 13 2 5 30 Oct 12

Chapoturgeon (FR) 13 4 5 29 Jan 11

Rival D'estruval (FR) 12 3 8 4 Nov 12

Raslan (GB) 12 0 1 19 Oct 12

Seven Is My Number (IRE) 12 4 6 10 Apr 10

Rahmah (IRE) 11 1 3 4 May 18

Suitsus (GB) 11 2 5 25 Jan 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,470 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1213914111210410141415

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid Pipe

10% of all rides
20.3% SR · A/E 1.35

TrainerRWSR£1

David Pipe 281 57 20.3% +20.63

Jamie Osborne 218 22 10.1% −64.12

Geoffrey Deacon 88 6 6.8% −36.00

Fergal O'Brien 85 14 16.5% +30.88

Pauline Robson 66 16 24.2% +29.46

Donald McCain 66 10 15.2% −26.16

P Monteith 64 9 14.1% −1.92

Alan Fleming 55 13 23.6% −8.49

Richard Hannon 55 12 21.8% +38.28

Liam Corcoran 53 6 11.3% −26.87

Jim Best 51 2 3.9% −29.50

James Evans 50 6 12% −0.42

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

637

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£10.1m

Prize money

2005

Best season · 112 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Comply Or Die (IRE) — John Smith's Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Aintree · Apr 2008 · Class 1

£450,640

Our Vic (IRE) — Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2008 · Class 1

£114,040

Merigo (FR) — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Ayr · Apr 2010 · Class 1

£114,020

Notable horses

Ashkazar (FR) Diamond Harry (GB) Our Vic (IRE) Abragante (IRE) Harris Bay (GB) Standin Obligation (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 13% · 9–69

Progeny have won 11% of 20,050 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Old Vic (GB) 17.8% · 8–45

Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 11.4% · 5–44

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,744 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Pistolet Bleu (IRE) 20.9% · 9–43

Progeny have won 11.2% of 1,371 runs since 2008 (131 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 4.8% · 2–42

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Oscar (IRE) 14.3% · 6–42

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,701 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,701 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 11 September 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

11 Sep 19 Doncaster Ascot Week (USA)T: John Quinn Mondialiste Leger Legends Classified StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 5th 20/1

12 Sep 18 Doncaster Cheeky Rascal (IRE)T: Richard Hannon Clipper Logistics Leger Legends Classified Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 8th 3/1F

15 May 18 Chepstow Happy Escape (GB)T: Neil Mulholland Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 1st 10/1

14 May 18 Catterick Costa Percy (GB)T: Jennie Candlish Go Racing In Yorkshire HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 7/2

11 May 18 Ascot Zalshah (GB)T: Richard Hannon Dingley's Promise Handicap (Str)Class 4 · 8f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 10th 50/1

04 May 18 Chepstow Rahmah (IRE)T: Geoffrey Deacon Network Productions HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 6/1

04 May 18 Chepstow Champagne Freddie (GB)T: John O'Shea Select Security Novice StakesClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 66/1

03 May 18 Lingfield (AW) Southern States (GB)T: Lydia Richards Read Silvestre De Sousa At 188Bet HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 11/2

16 Feb 18 Lingfield (AW) New Street (IRE)T: Suzi Best Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 8/1

10 Feb 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Warofindependence (USA)T: John O'Shea Betway Casino HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 20/1

09 Feb 18 Chelmsford City (AW) Red Alert (GB)T: Tony Carroll Totescoop6 Rollover This Saturday HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 20/1

09 Feb 18 Chelmsford City (AW) Echo Brava (GB)T: Suzi Best Toteswinger Two In The First Three HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 33/1

07 Feb 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Living Leader (GB)T: Grace Harris sunbets.co.uk Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 16/1

03 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Austin Friars (GB)T: Suzi Best 100% Profit Boost At 32redsport.com HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 33/1

03 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Motown Mick (IRE)T: Richard Hannon 32red HandicapClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 4 ran 2nd 7/2

03 Feb 18 Lingfield (AW) Faheem (GB)T: Lydia Richards Betway Live Casino Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 66/1

02 Feb 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Silver Quay (IRE)T: Jimmy Frost Betway HandicapClass 4 · 16.5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 80/1

01 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Rahmah (IRE)T: Geoffrey Deacon Smarter Bets With Matchbook HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 14/1

01 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Bazooka (IRE)T: David Flood Matchbook Casino Handicap (Qualifier)Class 4 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 40/1

01 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Hollywood Dream (GB)T: Neil Mulholland Theodore And Lexie Payne HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 6 ran 4th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Timmy Murphy's strike rate?: Timmy Murphy has won 350 of 2,935 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Timmy Murphy do best at?: Perth by strike rate: 12 wins from 70 rides (17.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Timmy Murphy ride most for?: David Pipe, with 281 rides since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 57 (20.3%).
What is Timmy Murphy's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 2,926 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.