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Trainer profile

Paul Hennessy

268 runners in the lifetime window · 34 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 36 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
19–268
Wins / Runs
7.1%
Strike rate
n=268
56 (21%)
Placed
1.09
Fair A/E
n=268 · 0.86 incl. margin
+20.70
£1 level stake
n=268 at SP · +7.7%
£363k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.09). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 10% off breaks of two months or more (52 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 268 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 9.6% Danny Mullins: 4.9% from 61 Claiming riders: 8.7%
The read

It is weakest at Dundalk (AW) (3.5% over 57 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 8.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.48 and +61.50 to a £1 stake over 126 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Danny Mullins rides 23% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (4.9% vs 7.1%, A/E 0.47). The yard also reads well off a 61-180-day break (13.3%, n=30) and on Heavy going (12.1%, n=33). The market has also underrated the yard off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 1.55 across 74 runners (10.8% strike, +23.50 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly on Good going — 1.9% over 52 runners, 5.2pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown (Feb 2021, £59,000). The stable star of the record: Heaven Help Us (IRE) — 5 wins from 29 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.6%+2.5
n=52 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +45.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
9.5%+2.4
n=21 · A/E 2.04 · £1 +2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.1
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
20%+12.9
n=10 · A/E 4.35 · £1 +22.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
14.3%+7.2
n=14 · A/E 2.78 · £1 +16.00
When favourite
10%
n=10 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −7.80
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.7%+1.6
n=126 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +61.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
6.5%−0.6
n=31 · A/E 1.03 · £1 +20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 61-180-day break 13.3% vs 7.1% · n=30
On Good going 1.9% vs 7.1% · n=52
Off a 8-14-day break 2.1% vs 7.1% · n=48
On Heavy going 12.1% vs 7.1% · n=33
Off a 15-30-day break 10.8% vs 7.1% · n=74
At Dundalk (AW) 3.5% vs 7.1% · n=57
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 28.2% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 112 5 4.5% −49.00
Hurdle 103 9 8.7% +68.20
NH Flat 30 2 6.7% −3.00
Chase 23 3 13% +4.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 79 8 10.1% +30.50
Standard (AW) 57 2 3.5% −31.00
Good 52 1 1.9% −49.80
Good to Soft 35 3 8.6% +41.00
Heavy 33 4 12.1% +35.00
Good to Firm 12 1 8.3% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 57 2 3.5% −31.00
Gowran Park 27 2 7.4% −1.00
Punchestown 23 3 13% +43.00
Fairyhouse 19 1 5.3% −15.00
Leopardstown 13 1 7.7% +4.00
Kilbeggan 12 2 16.7% +0.50
Cheltenham 10 2 20% +58.00
Cork 9 1 11.1% +4.00
Navan 9 1 11.1% +3.00
Naas 9 0 0% −9.00
Wexford 9 0 0% −9.00
Clonmel 9 1 11.1% +1.00
Curragh 8 0 0% −8.00
Limerick 8 1 12.5% +7.00
Ballinrobe 8 1 12.5% −5.80

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 33 2 6.1% +18.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 1 1 100% +33.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 13 1 7.7% 0.30 −10.80
2nd–3rd fav 32 3 9.4% 0.67 −15.50
4th–6th fav 70 5 7.1% 0.90 −15.00
7th+ in betting 153 10 6.5% 2.46 +62.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
First Friday (IRE)from Anthony Mullins · then Anthony Mullins 44 3 15 16 Aug 14
Heaven Help Us (IRE) 29 5 11 19 Nov 22
Jacovec Cavern (GB)from Mick Channon 26 2 8 3 Oct 26
Falcon Park (IRE)then John Joseph Hanlon 25 2 4 23 Jan 25
Thywillbedone (IRE) 14 1 1 20 Apr 16
Pillard (FR)from Jonjo O'Neill 12 0 2 6 Nov 18
Cheers Buddy (IRE)from Anthony Mullins · then John Joseph Hanlon 11 2 3 28 Oct 11
Ocean Of Mercy (IRE) 10 2 6 2 Oct 25
Faithful Follower (IRE) 9 1 1 19 Jun 26
Douman (USA)from Ed Dunlop 7 0 0 16 Jan 15
Miss Mitigate (GB)from Andrew Balding 7 0 0 19 Dec 14
Merciful Hour (IRE) 7 0 0 3 May 13
All 34 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 34 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W P Mullins (5) and Anthony Mullins (2); 16 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard, most often for John Joseph Hanlon (2); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
71167470146698
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDanny Mullins
23% of all rides
4.9% SR · A/E 0.47
RiderRWSR£1
Danny Mullins 61 3 4.9% −9.80
Niall Prendergast 57 5 8.8% −5.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
19
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£363k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 5 wins
Heaven Help Us (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) Leopardstown · Feb 2021 · Grade B
£59,000
Heaven Help Us (IRE) — Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2021 · Grade 3
£42,203
Jacovec Cavern (GB) — Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle Punchestown · Apr 2026
£17,670
Notable horses
Heaven Help Us (IRE) First Friday (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB) Falcon Park (IRE) Cheers Buddy (IRE) Ocean Of Mercy (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
High Chaparral (IRE) 6.8% · 3–44
Progeny have won 10.3% of 8,730 runs since 2008 (682 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 419.
Yeats (IRE) 15.2% · 5–33
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,849 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Sixties Icon (GB) 7.7% · 2–26
Progeny have won 10% of 5,684 runs since 2012 (338 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.4% from 1,338.
Arcadio (GER) 8% · 2–25
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,981 runs since 2011 (375 horses).
Policy Maker (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 9% of 1,251 runs since 2010 (144 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.5% from 200. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.7% from 127.
Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,886 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 268 · newest first

The latest 50 of 268 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 April 2011 to 3 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
03 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 4th 14/1
24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 14 ran PU 9/2
08 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Steeplechase25f · Good · 7 ran 6th 17/2
17 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Lee Strand Handicap Hurdle23f · Good · 16 ran PU 7/1
17 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Daily Devotion (IRE)J: Richard Condon Killarney Grand Mares Maiden Hurdle23f · Good · 15 ran PU 300/1
19 Jun 26 Limerick Faithful Follower (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan McMahons Builders Providers Maiden12.5f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 100/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Paul & Carmel Fay Memorial Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 3rd 3/1F
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Maximillian Lady (IRE)J: Richard Condon Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Mares Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran PU 6/1
25 May 26 Ballinrobe Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon McHale Mayo Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 7/1
13 May 26 Punchestown Daily Devotion (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Ladbrokes (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 13th 50/1
05 May 26 Gowran Park Faithful Follower (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Thomastown Maiden8f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 15th 250/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Maximillian Lady (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Weatherbys General Stud Book Irish EBF Mares Flat Race (Grade 3)16.5f · Yielding · 16 ran 12th 16/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Race & Stay At Punchestown Champion I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 1)16.5f · Yielding · 10 ran 10th 66/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 24 ran 1st 33/1
11 Apr 26 Bellewstown Faithful Follower (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan David McKeown A1 Generators Maiden11.5f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 100/1
11 Mar 26 Cheltenham Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Richard Condon Weatherbys Champion Bumper (In Memory Of Sir Johnny Weatherby) (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 21 ran 21st 150/1
07 Mar 26 Gowran Park Daily Devotion (IRE)J: Ms C Horgan 'Doc's Bumper' Flat Race18f · Heavy · 9 ran 8th 40/1
14 Feb 26 Gowran Park Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series At Punchestown Festival 2026 Qualifier Handicap Hurdle20f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 13/2
10 Feb 26 Limerick Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Mr P W Mullins Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction (Pro/Am) Flat Race15.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 1st 14/1
25 Jan 26 Naas Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Clinton Higgins Chartered Accountants Novice Handicap Chase20f · Heavy · 11 ran 10th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Hennessy's strike rate?
Paul Hennessy has won 19 of 268 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Hennessy do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 57 runners (3.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Hennessy?
Danny Mullins, with 61 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (4.9%).
What is Paul Hennessy's Fair A/E?
1.09, from 268 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).