Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.55). With a claiming rider up the record reads 6% (159 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 373 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceMlle Lea Bails: 6.7% from 135Claiming riders: 5.7%
The read
The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.15 and −108.20 to a £1 stake over 170 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mlle Lea Bails rides 36% of the entries and edges the yard's average (6.7% vs 2.9%, A/E 1.29) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.8%−1.1
n=170 · A/E 0.15 · £1 −108.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
1.6%−1.3
n=64 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.9
n=37 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.9
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.9
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +43.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.7%+2.8
n=159 · A/E 1.04 · £1 +131.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.9
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Mlle Lea Bails6.7% vs 2.9% · n=135
With claiming riders up5.7% vs 2.9% · n=159
Off a 15-30-day break5.2% vs 2.9% · n=96
With debutants0% vs 2.9% · n=37
With first-time headgear0% vs 2.9% · n=32
With C&D winners4.9% vs 2.9% · n=41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat367102.7%−90.10
Chase3133.3%+45.00
Hurdle300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)16742.4%−29.80
Good to Soft7911.3%−75.00
Soft7111.4%−37.10
Heavy28310.7%+35.80
Good2528%+58.00
Good to Firm300%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)13443%−79.80
Longchamp (FR)7422.7%−23.20
Chantilly (FR)5811.7%+33.00
Saint-Cloud4924.1%+18.90
Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR)600%−6.00
Dieppe (FR)500%−5.00
Chateaubriant (FR)500%−5.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)500%−5.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)300%−3.00
Saint-Malo (FR)300%−3.00
Clairefontaine (FR)300%−3.00
Angers (FR)300%−3.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)200%−2.00
Durtal (FR)200%—
Auteuil (FR)200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 42100%−21.00
Class 1500%−5.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5120%0.00+43.00
2nd–3rd fav2428.3%0.68−8.20
4th–6th fav5623.6%0.46−37.70
7th+ in betting27551.8%0.62−45.20
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f12454%+10.00
1m – 1m1f11932.5%−72.10
1m5f – 2m7111.4%+24.00
6f – 7f4312.3%−42.00
2m1f – 2m4f1516.7%+33.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2010100%−1.00
2011500%−5.00
20125120%−4.00
2013100%−1.00
2014400%−4.00
2015900%−7.00
20161119.1%+37.00
20171300%−13.00
2018300%−3.00
20191915.3%+26.00
20203525.7%+14.10
20214500%−39.00
20225235.8%+78.10
20236323.2%−47.20
20242613.8%+1.90
20252600%−26.00
20265500%−55.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps27682.9%−19.90
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners21362.8%−84.90
11-13 runners6911.4%+28.00
17+ runners4924.1%−1.20
8-10 runners3412.9%+16.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners2150%—
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 101 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from P Monfort (9) and H-A Pantall (4); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 58 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 7
Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
050676030033
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,175 runs since 2017 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 258. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.7% from 146.
Progeny have won 6.1% of 461 runs since 2019 (66 horses).
Galileo (IRE)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,201 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.
Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,237 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 961.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 373 · newest first
The latest 50 of 373 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 December 2010 to 9 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is S Gouyette's strike rate?
S Gouyette has won 11 of 373 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does S Gouyette do best at?
Saint-Cloud by strike rate: 2 wins from 49 runners (4.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for S Gouyette?
Mlle Lea Bails, with 135 runners since 2008 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (6.7%).
Is S Gouyette in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is S Gouyette's Fair A/E?
0.55, from 359 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
S Gouyette·SR 2.9%·A/E 0.55
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy