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Trainer profile

William J McLernon

149 runners in the lifetime window · 22 individual horses
As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 180 days ago 94% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
3–149
Wins / Runs
2%
Strike rate
n=149
14 (9%)
Placed
0.61
Fair A/E
n=149 · 0.47 incl. margin
−58.50
£1 level stake
n=149 at SP · −39.3%
£40,715
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.61).

Deterministic profile computed from 149 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 2.4% Claiming riders: 3%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.4%+0.4
n=42 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −27.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
5.3%+3.3
n=19 · A/E 2.91 · £1 +48.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.0
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3%+1.0
n=66 · A/E 1.02 · £1 +16.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 4.1% vs 2% · n=49
Off a 15-30-day break 0% vs 2% · n=48
With a new jockey booking 3.3% vs 2% · n=92 · A/E 1.32
In Hurdle races 1% vs 2% · n=100 · A/E 0.31
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 82.6% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 100 1 1% −91.50
Chase 22 1 4.5% −7.00
NH Flat 18 1 5.6% +49.00
Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 71 2 2.8% +11.00
Good 26 0 0% −26.00
Heavy 24 1 4.2% −15.50
Good to Soft 21 0 0% −21.00
Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00
Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 19 0 0% −19.00
Fairyhouse 15 0 0% −15.00
Down Royal 12 1 8.3% +3.00
Naas 12 0 0% −12.00
Navan 11 0 0% −11.00
Cork 9 0 0% −9.00
Thurles 9 1 11.1% −0.50
Ballinrobe 6 0 0% −6.00
Wexford 6 0 0% −6.00
Limerick 6 0 0% −6.00
Sligo 5 0 0% −5.00
Tipperary 5 0 0% −5.00
Galway 4 1 25% +63.00
Clonmel 4 0 0% −4.00
Wexford 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 7 0 0% 0.00 −7.00
4th–6th fav 28 2 7.1% 0.99 −4.50
7th+ in betting 113 1 0.9% 0.51 −46.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81.1% completed · 122 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 22 59.1% 1 0 8 0 0
Hurdle 100 86% 1 1 11 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE) 23 2 8 29 Apr 26
Acclaimed Piper (IRE)from M J Grassick 21 0 1 24 Oct 13
The Mull (IRE) 16 1 2 4 Nov 14
Mr Cosmos (IRE) 12 0 0 5 Apr 21
Ode To Joy (IRE) 10 0 3 13 May 26
Lauro Lady (GB) 9 0 0 24 Jul 25
Semper Fidelis (GB) 9 0 0 30 Aug 21
She'sournightmare (IRE) 8 0 0 3 May 16
Banrion Na Speire (IRE) 6 0 0 30 Aug 19
Gerrymandering (IRE) 5 0 0 16 Apr 26
Mystic Red (IRE)from B P Galvin 5 0 0 10 Jul 15
Corus Girl (IRE) 4 0 0 6 Feb 20
All 22 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 22 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 20 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
706000000800
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Mark Bolger 15 0 0% −15.00
Jody McGarvey 10 0 0% −10.00
Conor Maxwell 9 0 0% −9.00
Robbie Colgan 7 0 0% −7.00
Caragh Monaghan 7 0 0% −7.00
Gavin Brouder 7 0 0% −7.00
Miss A B O'Connor 6 1 16.7% +61.00
Patrick M O'Brien 5 0 0% −5.00
Mr C Cully 5 1 20% +10.00
Roger Loughran 4 0 0% −4.00
Liam McKenna 4 0 0% −4.00
Mr J T Carroll 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
3
Archived wins
£40,715
Prize money
2026
Best season · 1 win
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE) — Front Door 4-y-o Fillies (pro/am) Flat Race Galway · Oct 2022
£6,200
Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE) — Killinan Handicap Hurdle (0-100) Thurles · Jan 2026
£5,900
The Mull (IRE) — Daily Mirror Hunters Chase Down Royal · Mar 2012
£4,830
Notable horses
Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE) The Mull (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Milan (GB) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,884 runs since 2008 (1,464 horses).
Acclamation (GB) 0% · 0–21
Progeny have won 10% of 19,716 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.
Darnay (GB) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 4.1% of 666 runs since 2008 (97 horses).
Lauro (GER) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 9.5% of 549 runs since 2014 (88 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16% from 150. Weakest on Soft going: 5.6% from 196. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.5% from 172. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 221.
Mr Dinos (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 7.3% of 409 runs since 2011 (33 horses).
Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 7.6% of 3,155 runs since 2015 (317 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 10.7% from 383.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 150 · newest first

The latest 50 of 150 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 December 2007 to 13 May 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
13 May 26 Punchestown Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 10th 10/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE)J: Caragh Monaghan Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 24 ran 10th 50/1
18 Apr 26 Bellewstown Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Tony Marmion Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 16 ran 3rd 9/1
16 Apr 26 Limerick Gerrymandering (IRE)J: Caragh Monaghan Professor Maria Hinfelaar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 5th 66/1
05 Apr 26 Fairyhouse Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Cawley Furniture Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Yielding To Soft · 20 ran PU 22/1
02 Apr 26 Clonmel Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder KEP Italia Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Soft · 16 ran 5th 8/1
26 Mar 26 Clonmel Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Glenary Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)19f · Soft · 15 ran 3rd 17/2
04 Mar 26 Naas Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Soft To Heavy · 17 ran 4th 50/1
18 Feb 26 Punchestown Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder Matchbook 50:50 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 250/1
08 Feb 26 Navan Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Ryan's Cleaning Apple's Jade Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed)20f · Heavy · 7 ran 4th 22/1
29 Jan 26 Thurles Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE)J: Jack Kennedy Killinan Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Heavy · 16 ran 1st 15/2
29 Jan 26 Thurles Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Gavin Brouder ThurlesRaces.ie Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 18 ran 13th 200/1
20 Jan 26 Down Royal Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE)J: Liam McKenna Coors Mares Handicap Hurdle17f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 10/1
14 Jan 26 Fairyhouse Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Liam McKenna Download The Tote App Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 250/1
12 Jan 26 Punchestown Gerrymandering (IRE)J: Liam McKenna Matchbook 50:50 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 13th 200/1
01 Jan 26 Fairyhouse Mi Lucky Cailin (IRE)J: Liam McKenna TheTravelShop.ie Handicap Hurdle20f · Yielding · 24 ran 14th 40/1
26 Dec 25 Leopardstown Gerrymandering (IRE)J: Simon Torrens Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 22 ran 21st 150/1
09 Nov 25 Naas Mighty Moments (GB)J: Mr D Doyle Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 11th 28/1
09 Nov 25 Naas Ode To Joy (IRE)J: Caragh Monaghan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 10th 100/1
24 Jul 25 Wexford Lauro Lady (GB)J: Simon Torrens WTW Willis Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)16.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is William J McLernon's strike rate?
William J McLernon has won 3 of 149 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is William J McLernon's Fair A/E?
0.61, from 149 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 9 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).