4:48 Ripon
This Class 5 handicap over a mile at Ripon on soft ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers, several of whom arrive in reasonable form but with questions to answer about the trip, the surface or their ability to handle a strongly-run race. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Donna Nook heading the list on 60, closely followed by Paroda Diva on 58 and then a cluster around the mid-50s. Overall the numbers point to a race that will be decided by how the prominent runners cope with the expected strong pace and which of the unproven stayers can handle the softened ground.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present and the confidence in that assessment is high. Donna Nook and Garden Oasis both tend to make the running or race prominently, while Penny Ghent is another who likes to go forward; that early speed should ensure a genuine gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable late on. The shape therefore poses the key question of whether any of the hold-up performers, of which there are several including Paroda Diva, Zermatt Star and most of the remainder of the field, can time their challenge to pick up the pieces when the pace collapses.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Donna Nook KTB Selection60/100
Donna Nook is the KTB Selection. A modest performer, she has won once from only one run at Ripon and her recent form of 414443 reflects consistent placed efforts without adding to her tally. The yard's 15% strike rate from 791 runs at the track is respectable, while Daniel Tudhope brings a 21% strike rate at Ripon from 483 rides. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could be a double-edged sword given the strong pace expected. Untried on soft ground and with only one win from 17 starts at this trip, she remains the pick on balance of her course record and consistency.
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2Paroda Diva58/100
Paroda Diva is a modest performer who has shown enough at this trip to win once from three attempts and finished a solid second when tried here on her only visit. Patrick Neville has an excellent 60% strike rate from his small sample at Ripon while Andrew Mullen is a regular rider at the track. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, which could be ideal if the strong pace collapses. Still unproven on soft ground and drawn wide today, she nevertheless enters calculations as one of the more interesting contenders on her course-and-distance placed effort.
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3G'Emmethegreenlite55/100
G'Emmethegreenlite is a modest performer who has struggled since a couple of placed efforts on debut. The step up to 1m is a fresh question having last run over 7f. Seb Spencer has an 18% strike rate from 11 runs at Ripon, with Dale Swift taking the ride. Usually held up, though with only limited evidence, he is another who could benefit if the race falls apart late. No course form on record and unproven on soft ground add to the unknowns surrounding this three-year-old.
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4Zermatt Star55/100
Zermatt Star is a modest performer who has shown very little in five starts this year and remains winless. He has tried today's trip five times without success and first-time headgear is now reached for. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Ripon from 39 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited by the strong pace. Unproven on soft ground and with no course form on record, he needs a revival to figure.
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5Garden Oasis53/100
Garden Oasis is a modest 11-year-old who has won four times at this track from 22 runs and has also won at today's trip. Recent form of 854233 is respectable for the grade, though he is 0-3 on soft ground and that raises a question today. Dropping in class, he tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, which will put him right in the firing line given the expected strong gallop. Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate from 2418 runs at Ripon while David Allan is aboard.
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6Catton Lady53/100
Catton Lady is a modest performer who has been in decent form of late with a win and two placed efforts from her last four starts. She has shown some ability on this track but is yet to place here from two runs and steps up in trip today having won once at 1m in the past. The yard have a 10% strike rate at Ripon while she has won once from seven starts on soft ground.
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7Kiss Me My Love52/100
Kiss Me My Love is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little at this track on either start. Kevin Stott rides and the yard has a 10% strike rate here from a big sample. Suited by soft ground with a win and two places from three starts, and has won at this trip.
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8Hopeful Joy52/100
Hopeful Joy is a modest performer who has shown some consistency at this track, finishing placed on two of three starts here including a second last time. Has been out of form on his last two runs though and remains winless after six starts. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Ripon from a big sample.
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9Penny Ghent51/100
Penny Ghent is a limited performer who has won once at this track from three runs and also scored at today's trip. Recent form is patchy with a string of mid-pack finishes after two quick wins earlier this year. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate at Ripon is close to expectations while the jockey is unproven here.
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10Milford Grange51/100
Milford Grange is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing second three times from eight starts including when runner-up on his only previous visit to Ripon. Steps up to 1m for the first time today having looked stretched at 7f last time, though he has already placed once at this trip. Trainer holds a 10% strike rate at the track from 98 runs while the horse has shown he handles soft ground.
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11Thornaby Annie51/100
Thornaby Annie is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes a win at this trip from four attempts. First run at Ripon and no experience on soft ground both leave questions to answer today. Trainer has a 7% strike rate from 91 runs at the track.
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12Bellasio48/100
Bellasio is a modest performer who has dropped in the weights after a string of ordinary efforts. Has won on soft ground and at this trip but was well held when he tried Ripon on his only visit. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample.
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13Gunalt Wavelength47/100
Gunalt Wavelength is a modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Ripon and has placed twice from three starts on soft ground. Recent form of 21146 shows he can be competitive at this level yet he has failed to win in four runs since his last success. Steps up to 1m for the first time today having been beaten on his sole previous attempt at the trip.
KTB verdict
Donna Nook is the KTB Selection. Her record at Ripon stands out and she has been consistently placed of late, factors that give her solid claims if she can cope with the soft ground and the demands of making the running in a strongly-run race. The main dangers are likely to come from those who can benefit from the pace shape, with Paroda Diva the most obvious threat on the back of her placed effort here and her hold-up style. Garden Oasis cannot be entirely dismissed given his course record and front-running tendencies, while any of the other hold-up types such as Zermatt Star or Milford Grange could capitalise if the leaders fold late.
KTB Selection Donna Nook
This is the narrative read of the 4:48 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ripon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are unproven on soft ground?
Donna Nook, Paroda Diva, G'Emmethegreenlite, Zermatt Star, Hopeful Joy and Thornaby Annie have no runs on soft.
Who are the habitual front-runners in the field?
Donna Nook, Garden Oasis and Penny Ghent tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Ripon?
Patrick Neville has a 60% strike rate at Ripon from 5 runs with Paroda Diva.
How many horses have course form at Ripon?
Donna Nook, Paroda Diva, Garden Oasis, Catton Lady, Kiss Me My Love, Hopeful Joy, Penny Ghent, Milford Grange, Bellasio and Gunalt Wavelength have all run at the track before.
Which runners are stepping up or dropping in class?
Garden Oasis is dropping in class, while Catton Lady, Penny Ghent and Gunalt Wavelength are stepping up in class.
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