3:21 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 1m2f1y on good ground brings together a field of ten modest performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The top five are separated by just seven points on the figures, underlining how little separates them on paper in a race that lacks any standout ability. With no obvious front-runner in a steadily-run, tactical contest, positioning and timing from off the pace are likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run affair where being handy on the turn could pay dividends. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a tactical sprint for the line in the straight. The key question is which of these patiently-ridden runners can best negotiate the steady gallop and deliver their challenge at the right moment without leaving themselves too much to do.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Chesneys Charm60/100
Chesneys Charm is a modest performer who has shown some consistency at this track, finishing placed on one of three visits to Redcar and placing once from four starts at this trip. His recent form has been patchy, with a best of third on his penultimate start, though he is now 0-24 for the year. The trainer records a steady 9% strike rate at the track while Hector Crouch brings a strong 31% record from his 16 rides here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and should be suited by the steadily-run nature of this contest from draw 9. He has one win from six starts on good ground and three placed efforts at the trip overall.
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2Talitha Rouge KTB Selection60/100
Talitha Rouge is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. Dropping back from 1m4f to a trip where she has already been placed once looks a sensible move and the yard and jockey both have solid records here. Her course third on her only visit adds a bit of local knowledge though the small overall sample means plenty remains to be proven. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Redcar while Mark Winn boasts a 20% record from 66 rides at the track. Usually held up with medium confidence, she should be well suited by the tactical pace shape in this steadily-run affair from her draw of 7.
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3Phantom Shadow59/100
Phantom Shadow is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this season with a win and two placings from his last six starts. He has already won over today's trip but has failed to place in three runs on good ground. The yard has a solid record here while the jockey's long-term strike rate at the track is more modest. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to produce his effort late in what is expected to be a steadily-run race. From draw 6 he has the right sort of run style to capitalise if the leaders go steady early.
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4Promethean58/100
Promethean is a modest performer who has struggled for form lately with a string of poor efforts including a laboured return this season. He drops back from 2m1f to a trip he has tried six times without success though he has been competitive on good ground in the past. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from 28 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first Redcar winner from five rides. Usually held up, he should appreciate the steadily-run tempo from a handy draw of 3. This represents a drop in class which could help him return to some form.
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5Woodleigh53/100
Woodleigh is a limited horse who has run 40 times in the last year yet retains ability on his day. Three course wins from five runs here is a big plus and the yard's solid 14% strike-rate at Redcar adds confidence. He drops back from 1m3f to a trip he has won three times from five starts while the good ground record is only fair. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be ridden for a late effort in a race where the steady pace should suit. Stepping up in class is a concern but his record at this venue cannot be ignored.
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6Port Darwin51/100
Port Darwin is a modest performer who has been busy this year and shown a mixed bag of results. He has won over today's trip and on this ground though the bare form suggests he is vulnerable in most races at this level. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Redcar while the jockey is less prolific here.
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7Bay Dream Believer48/100
Bay Dream Believer is a modest performer who has been placed on three of four starts at this track without winning. He has a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 28 attempts and acts on good ground. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate here is a negative but the jockey is operating close to expectations at the course.
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8Kartini41/100
Kartini is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year after a couple of placed efforts last season. She has a placed effort at today's trip but was well held over course and distance on her only previous visit here. The trainer's poor record at Redcar is a further negative.
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9Forever Perfect38/100
Forever Perfect is a limited performer on the balance of her 11 runs and recent form that has gone 122300. She drops back in trip to 1m2f today having last run over 1m4½f so this is a fresh question. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 120 runs at Redcar while the jockey is 8% from 24 rides here.
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10Lightning Galaxy34/100
Lightning Galaxy is a limited performer on the balance of his 14 runs and recent form figures of 995948. He drops back in trip having failed to trouble the judge in one previous try at this distance and has never placed from six starts on good ground. The first-time headgear is an unknown and both trainer and jockey have modest records at Redcar.
KTB verdict
The steadily-run nature of this race should suit the patient types that dominate the field, and the KTB numbers point to a tight contest at the top of the handicap. Talitha Rouge is the selection as her drop back to a trip where she has already placed looks logical, she has shown consistent form in modest company, and the yard and jockey both have solid records at the track. Her course third on her only visit here adds some local confidence. The main dangers are Chesneys Charm, who has shown consistency at Redcar, and Phantom Shadow, who brings a recent win over the trip, while Woodleigh's strong course record means he cannot be dismissed despite stepping up in class.
KTB Selection Talitha Rouge
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 9 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Chesneys Charm | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Talitha Rouge | 11/4 | 7Bet |
| Phantom Shadow | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Promethean | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Woodleigh | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Port Darwin | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| Bay Dream Believer | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Kartini | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Forever Perfect | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Lightning Galaxy | 16/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:21 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Talitha Rouge the KTB Selection?
Dropping back from 1m4f to a trip where she has already been placed once looks a sensible move and the yard and jockey both have solid records here. Her course third on her only visit adds a bit of local knowledge.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, suiting the many held-up runners who produce their effort late.
What is Woodleigh's strongest asset at Redcar?
Three course wins from five runs here is a big plus and the yard's solid 14% strike-rate at Redcar adds confidence.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Promethean is dropping in class while Forever Perfect and Lightning Galaxy are both stepping up in class.
What is the significance of the first-time headgear on Lightning Galaxy?
The first-time headgear is an unknown on a limited performer who has never placed from six starts on good ground.
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