2:51 Redcar
This Class 4 handicap over 1m2f1y at Redcar on good ground features an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Nepal and Lucky Hero both sit on an identical 64/100 rating, with three others on 56, pointing to a competitive renewal in which recent form, course records and the strong-pace shape will be key. The numbers suggest a race that could be decided late given the anticipated pace collapse.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared and the pace shape rated strong with high confidence, the early fractions are likely to be genuine. Nepal, Percy's Daydream, Golden Redemption, Sea The Power and Lillie Margot all tend to race prominently or make the running, which sets up a test that could see the pace collapse in the final furlong. That scenario would play into the hands of the hold-up performers such as Lucky Hero, Yafreh, Fox Avatar, Thunder Wonder, Per Contra and Farasi Lane, making the ability to produce a finishing kick from off the pace the central question.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Nepal KTB Selection64/100
Nepal is a fair performer who has shown enough at this trip to win once from six attempts and remains competitive on good ground. He ran respectably when fourth here on his only visit to Redcar and his recent form includes an 8th and a 4th that fit the level. The trainer operates at a modest 9% strike rate at the track while the jockey has a strong 31% record from limited rides here. As a front-runner he is sure to be prominent in a race where the pace is expected to be strong, which could test his ability to see it out if the leaders fold late. His KTB Fit score of 64 matches the top rating in the field and he is the KTB Selection.
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2Lucky Hero64/100
Lucky Hero is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes three wins in his last six starts. He has won both starts at Redcar and is 2 from 3 at today's trip, while the trainer holds a 15% strike-rate here from a large sample. The jockey's 17% strike-rate from 12 rides at the track is respectable, though the horse has only placed once in five runs on good ground and is yet to win on it. Stepping up in class, his hold-up style looks ideally suited to the strong pace that is anticipated, allowing him to come from off the speed if the front-runners pay for their exertions. The 64 KTB Fit score places him right alongside the selection.
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3Percy's Daydream56/100
Percy's Daydream is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning since landing a 1m2f success earlier this year. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip where he is 3-7, with a solid record on good ground that includes one win and two places from seven starts. The yard has a 15% strike-rate at Redcar from a large sample while Kevin Stott posts a 14% record here. As another front-runner he will be involved in the early battle in what is set to be a strongly-run race, which could leave him vulnerable to closers if the pace tells late. His KTB Fit of 56 makes him one of the main principals.
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4Golden Redemption56/100
Golden Redemption is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, placing in three of his last four starts on good ground. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 7f, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a solid 9% strike rate from 224 runs at Redcar while jockey posts 12% from 51 rides here. His front-running tendencies will see him contest the lead in a race with a strong pace shape, potentially leaving him exposed if the tempo proves too hot. The 56 KTB Fit score keeps him in the mix among the leading contenders.
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5Yafreh56/100
Yafreh is a fair 3-year-old with consistent placed form at this level, finishing second twice from his last three starts. He drops back in trip from 1m4f to 1m2f having failed to trouble the judge on his only previous try at today's distance. The Fahey yard posts a solid 19% strike rate at Redcar while apprentice Warren Fentiman has a 16% record here from 37 rides. His hold-up run-style should be favoured by the expected strong pace, giving him every chance to pounce late if the leaders come back to him. Rated 56 on KTB Fit, he is the last of the five principals.
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6Fox Avatar55/100
Fox Avatar is a fair performer who has won twice including at this trip. Looks to have been given a break since a respectable third on good ground last time out and is 1-1 on this surface. Trainer has a solid 26% strike-rate at Redcar though the jockey is operating closer to expectations with a 10% record here. His hold-up style aligns with the race's strong pace shape.
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7Thunder Wonder54/100
Thunder Wonder is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the frame on three of his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to score in three previous tries at this distance, though he has won twice from ten runs on good ground. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Redcar from 74 runs while the jockey sits on 10% from 21 rides here. Another hold-up type who could benefit if the pace collapses.
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8Per Contra48/100
Per Contra is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time and arrives here in ordinary form. He has won over today's trip but is 0-8 on good ground with only placed efforts to show, and his sole run at Redcar was modest. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. His high-confidence hold-up style fits the anticipated strong pace.
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9Sea The Power45/100
Sea The Power is a fair 3-year-old who has shown mixed form, winning once over shorter last season before two modest efforts this year. He steps up in trip for the first time today having failed to make an impact on his only previous try at this distance, while his sole run here produced a fifth-place finish. Trainer Seb Spencer has an 11% strike rate from 44 runs at Redcar and jockey Dale Swift is 9% from 188 rides at the track. Front-running style will put him right into the expected strong early pace.
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10Lillie Margot43/100
Lillie Margot is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the frame on three of her last four starts including a win on this ground. Steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of her. The yard and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate here at Redcar. As a front-runner she will be prominent in what looks a strongly-run affair.
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11Farasi Lane41/100
Farasi Lane is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and arrives in reasonable form off the back of a placed effort at this trip. He handles good ground but his record at the distance is modest with just one placing from five runs. The yard has a modest 7% strike-rate at Redcar while the jockey is even quieter at 3%. His hold-up run-style should suit the race's strong pace shape.
KTB verdict
Nepal is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with proven form at the trip, a respectable fourth on his sole Redcar visit and the ability to race prominently in a race where the pace is set to be strong, he has the right profile to capitalise if the leaders pay late. The case is strengthened by Hector Crouch's 31% strike-rate at the track. Main dangers are headed by Lucky Hero, whose course record, recent winning form and hold-up style look tailor-made for the shape, while Percy's Daydream, Golden Redemption and Yafreh all have credible claims on the supplied KTB ratings and yard stats.
KTB Selection Nepal
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 9 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Nepal | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Lucky Hero | 5/2 | William Hill |
| Percy's Daydream | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Golden Redemption | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Yafreh | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Fox Avatar | 5/1 | William Hill |
| Thunder Wonder | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Per Contra | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Sea The Power | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Lillie Margot | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Farasi Lane | 18/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 2:51 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Nepal, Percy's Daydream, Golden Redemption, Sea The Power and Lillie Margot all tend to make the running or race prominently.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The pace shape is rated strong with high confidence due to two or more habitual front-runners, which could cause the pace to collapse late.
How many wins has Lucky Hero recorded at Redcar?
Lucky Hero has won both starts at Redcar.
What is the KTB Fit score of the selection Nepal?
Nepal has a KTB Fit score of 64/100.
Which trainer has the highest strike-rate at Redcar among those represented?
Richard & Peter Fahey have a 19% strike rate at Redcar from 21 runs.
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