1:15 Doncaster
This Class 2 British Stallion Studs 'Carrie Red' EBF Fillies' Nursery Handicap over 6f 111y at Doncaster on good to soft ground brings together a dozen two-year-olds, several of whom already have winning form at or around today's trip. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Sexy Chick just heading the numbers on 52, followed closely by Roosike on 51 and Angel Sense on 49. Overall the figures point to a competitive heat where class, draw and the ability to handle a strong pace will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strongly positive for a contested lead, and the early fractions are expected to be brisk. Art Of Life, Roosike, Kodi Bear Light and Downonmainstreet are all likely to be prominent or making the running, which raises the strong possibility of the pace collapsing in the final furlong. That scenario would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Sexy Chick, Angel Sense and Bymiddaytomorrow, making the ability to come from off the speed the key question the race poses.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sexy Chick KTB Selection52/100
Sexy Chick is a useful performer who has already won once over today's 6½f trip. Recent form has been patchy with a win followed by three modest efforts, though the return to this distance looks a positive. The Richard Spencer yard shows a modest 5% strike rate at Doncaster from 88 runs, which is a concern, while Oisin Murphy brings a 16% strike rate at the track from 308 rides. This represents a drop in class from her most recent outings. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is well suited by the expected strong pace that could collapse late on good to soft ground where she has had one unplaced run.
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2Roosike51/100
Roosike is a fair 2-year-old who has shown consistent placed form this year before a disappointing effort last time. He drops back to 6½f having already won at the trip, though the wide draw in stall 13 adds a negative. The Richard Hughes yard records an 8% strike rate from 39 runs at Doncaster while the going remains an unknown on only four starts. Joe Leavy takes the ride and brings a 19% strike rate at the track from a small sample of 16 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, Roosike will be right up there early in a race where the strong pace could fold late.
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3Angel Sense49/100
Angel Sense is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and three placings from five runs. She steps up to 6½f today having already won at the trip, though the wide draw in stall 12 is a clear negative. Trainer Marco Botti has a solid 12% strike rate from 300 runs at Doncaster and the yard's record with jockey Marco Ghiani reads 19% from 391 runs. This represents a step up in class. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses on ground on which she remains unproven.
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4Art Of Life48/100
Art Of Life is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form in three starts, finishing second twice including over today's 6½f trip. Dropping back from 7f now looks a sensible move given that placed effort at the distance. Clive Cox has an 11% strike rate at Doncaster from 312 runs and Rossa Ryan's record at the track reads 13% from 210 rides. This represents a step up in class. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, Art Of Life will be prominent in a race where the strong pace could fold late on ground on which she remains unproven.
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5Bymiddaytomorrow47/100
Bymiddaytomorrow is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from six starts and now drops back from 7f. Recent form of 658117 shows clear ability mixed with some lesser efforts, while the wide draw in stall 11 adds a negative. Trainer Ed Walker has an 11% strike rate from 199 runs at Doncaster and jockey Ashley Lewis has a 0% strike rate at the track from 10 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the expected strong pace that could collapse late. She has had two runs on good to soft, though without winning or placing.
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6Kodi Bear Light45/100
Kodi Bear Light is a fair 2-year-old with a solid recent record of 21601 that includes a win at today's trip. Dropping back from 7f looks a sensible move given the 1-from-1 record at 6½f. The Burke yard posts a 9% strike rate at Doncaster from a big sample while Jack Nicholls has limited course experience. This represents a step up in class and she remains unproven on good to soft. Tending to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence, she will be forward in a strongly-run race.
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7Speed of Sound44/100
Speed of Sound is a fair 2-year-old with solid recent form of 3213 and a win at today's trip from four starts. He steps up from 6f today having already shown he can handle the extra distance. The yard's modest 5% strike rate from 88 runs at Doncaster is a negative while Saffie Osborne brings a 10% strike rate at the track from 70 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he has been placed once from one run on good to soft.
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8Wondervision43/100
Wondervision is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in three starts this year, finishing no worse than third. She steps up to 6½f having won at the trip on her previous attempt, though this represents a rise in class. Trainer Jack Channon has a solid 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 47 runs while jockey Nicola Currie has limited experience here. Usually held up on limited evidence, she remains unproven on good to soft.
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9Angel In My Heart43/100
Angel In My Heart is a modest performer with three runs behind her and a win at this trip from two attempts. Dropping back from 7f should suit on that evidence though the latest effort was nothing special. Trainer has an 11% strike rate from 62 runs at Doncaster while Luke Morris is aboard. Usually held up on limited evidence, she remains unproven on good to soft and this is a step up in class.
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10Downonmainstreet42/100
Downonmainstreet is a fair performer who has improved with each run and arrives in form after two quick wins. She steps up to 6½f today having already won at the trip, though the extra yardage asks a fresh question. Trainer has an 11% strike rate at Doncaster from 477 runs. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she remains unproven on good to soft and this is a step up in class.
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11Rollthedicebaby41/100
Rollthedicebaby is a fair performer who has shown decent form mixed with some lesser efforts in five runs. She steps up in trip today having already won once at this distance from three attempts and the extra yardage could suit. Trainer has a solid 13 percent strike rate at Doncaster from a big sample while the jockey also knows the track well. Usually held up, she has had one unplaced run on good to soft.
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12Leucothea40/100
Leucothea is a modest performer who has been placed at today's trip without winning. Recent form has been patchy with a string of runs without success and she now steps up in trip again from a low draw. Trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 650 runs at Doncaster. Usually held up, she remains unproven on good to soft.
KTB verdict
Sexy Chick is the KTB Selection. She is a useful performer who has already won over today's trip, and the return to 6½f after some patchy recent efforts looks a positive, while her hold-up style is perfectly suited to the strong pace that is likely to collapse late. The main dangers are the prominent runners Roosike and Art Of Life, both of whom have shown placed form at the trip and could take advantage if the leaders overdo things early. Angel Sense and Bymiddaytomorrow are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be ruled out if the race develops as expected.
KTB Selection Sexy Chick
This is the narrative read of the 1:15 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are likely to set or contest the strong pace?
Roosike, Art Of Life, Kodi Bear Light and Downonmainstreet are all noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horses are suited by the expected strong pace that could collapse late?
Sexy Chick, Angel Sense and Bymiddaytomorrow are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Doncaster among the principals?
Marco Botti has a 12% strike rate at Doncaster from 300 runs with Angel Sense.
Which runners are dropping back in trip to 6½f?
Sexy Chick, Roosike, Art Of Life, Bymiddaytomorrow, Kodi Bear Light and Angel In My Heart are all dropping back in trip.
Which horses are stepping up in class?
Angel Sense, Art Of Life, Kodi Bear Light, Wondervision, Angel In My Heart and Downonmainstreet are all stepping up in class.
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