3:22 Epsom
This Class 4 handicap for professional jump jockeys over 1m4f at Epsom on good ground features a field of 13, with the KTB numbers highlighting a competitive but open-looking race. Gordon Grey tops the Fit ratings on 69 and is the selection, while Marnier, Fox Avatar, Nibras Gold and Flash Man complete the principals, all rated in the low-to-mid 60s or just below. The pace shape points to a strong gallop that could set things up for those coming from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a solid clip from early on. Gordon Grey, Nibras Gold and Flash Man are all likely to be prominent or making the running, while several hold-up performers such as Marnier, Fox Avatar and most of the remainder will be positioned further back. The key question is whether the pace collapses in the latter stages, which would play into the hands of the hold-up horses coming from off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Gordon Grey KTB Selection69/100
Gordon Grey is a fair performer who knows his way around Epsom having won three times from seven starts here. He has a solid record on good ground and at this trip but his recent form has been patchy with a string of mid-field finishes. The six-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence from draw 5. Trainer George Baker has an 11% strike rate at Epsom from 125 runs with an A/E of 0.9 while jockey Tom Cannon boasts a 29% strike rate at the track from just seven rides with an A/E of 3.44. The pair hold a combined trainer-jockey record of 3/11 with an A/E of 3.42 and positive LSP of +£57.50.
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2Marnier67/100
Marnier is a fair performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won over and acts on good ground with one win and three places from five runs. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence from draw 10, making him well suited to the anticipated strong pace. Trainer Gary & Josh Moore have a 15% strike rate at Epsom from 62 runs with an A/E of 0.89, while jockey Caoilin Quinn is a perfect 1-1 at the track with an A/E of 2. The yard's trainer-jockey combination reads 64/379 with an A/E of 0.92 and this represents a drop in class.
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3Fox Avatar62/100
Fox Avatar is a fair performer who won over this trip on his penultimate start and has a solid 1-2 record on good ground from just three attempts. He steps up from 1m2f today while making his first visit to Epsom from a wide draw of 12. The five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, which could be ideal given the expected strong pace. Trainer Roger Varian has a strong 23% strike rate at Epsom from 115 runs with an A/E of 1.07 and jockey Brendan Powell holds a 13% strike rate at the track from eight rides with an A/E of 1.43.
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4Nibras Gold60/100
Nibras Gold is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last three starts. He has a good record at today's trip and has handled good ground well enough in the past with three wins and 11 places from 19 runs. The eight-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence from draw 3, which will see him prominently placed in a race with a strong pace likely. Trainer James Owen has a 19% strike rate at Epsom from 16 runs with an A/E of 1.12 while the trainer-jockey record with Jonathan Burke reads 18/76 with an A/E of 1.05.
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5Flash Man55/100
Flash Man is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. He drops back from 2m3f having already recorded a win on good ground from limited attempts with one win and four places from four runs. The four-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence from draw 4. Trainer Toby Lawes has no established record at Epsom overall running at 13% from 67 runs and jockey Kevin Brogan is 0-3 at the track. The yard's trainer-jockey record stands at 23/163 with an A/E of 0.91.
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6Damascus Steel54/100
Damascus Steel is a fair performer who has won once from two starts at Epsom and also has a win at this trip on his record. He has shown solid form on good ground with one win and a placing from four runs though his recent efforts have been mixed. The trainer has a 20% strike rate from five runs at the track while Brian Hughes takes the ride.
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7Tiger53/100
Tiger is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 642128 and holds solid claims on ratings. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while having been placed once at this distance without winning while he also has a win and two places from five runs on good ground. The yard has a 12% strike rate at Epsom from 123 runs and this is a drop in class.
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8Oneforthegutter52/100
Oneforthegutter is a fair sort who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He has run just once at Epsom finishing sixth and is dropping back in trip today having won twice at this distance earlier in his career. Trainer Ian Williams has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 123 runs and this represents a drop in class.
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9Hengest50/100
Hengest is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at Epsom without winning. He has run well over shorter trips here and steps up to 1m4f for the first time today, a move that asks a fresh question of him. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate at the track from 31 runs.
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10Oasis Sunrise49/100
Oasis Sunrise is a modest performer who has been running over shorter trips and now steps up to 1m4f where he has won once from five starts. He has a win and three places from nine runs on good ground so the surface is no problem. This is his first run at Epsom and the trainer has only had two runners here so both are unknowns. This is a step up in class.
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11Seeking Charles48/100
Seeking Charles is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from his only visit. He arrives in decent form with a solid string of placed efforts and the yard has a respectable record here. He has not shone on good ground in two previous attempts though.
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12Taritino43/100
Taritino is a fair sort who has been in and out of form this year with recent runs reading 114464. He drops back from 1m6f to a trip he has won at four times from nine starts and acts on good ground with four wins from 21 starts. Trainer Joe Tickle has only two runs at Epsom which is too small a sample to judge and this is the horse's first appearance here. This is a drop in class.
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13Zarakerjack40/100
Zarakerjack is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He ran a solid race when second over course and distance on his only visit here and has a good record on good ground. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Epsom but this looks a stiffer task stepping up in trip for the first time.
KTB verdict
Gordon Grey looks the one to beat in a race where the strong pace could cause problems for those up front. The selection knows the track inside out with three wins from seven runs here, possesses a solid record on good ground and at the trip, and benefits from the positive trainer-jockey combination at Epsom. Marnier is the obvious danger as a hold-up performer suited to the shape, while Fox Avatar, Nibras Gold and Flash Man all bring strong claims on recent form and trip suitability.
KTB Selection Gordon Grey
This is the narrative read of the 3:22 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Epsom?
Gordon Grey has won three times from seven starts here.
How does the strong pace shape affect the race?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Epsom in this field?
Roger Varian has a 23% strike rate from 115 runs, Gihan Arnolda 20% from five runs, Grace Harris 20% from two runs, and James Owen 19% from 16 runs.
Which jockeys hold positive A/E figures at Epsom?
Tom Cannon has an A/E of 3.44 from seven rides, Caoilin Quinn an A/E of 2 from one ride, and Brendan Powell an A/E of 1.43 from eight rides.
Who are the habitual front-runners or prominent runners?
Gordon Grey, Nibras Gold and Flash Man tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Taritino is usually prominent.
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