3:09 Down Royal
This 7f26y Madrí Excepcional Maiden at Down Royal on good ground brings together a field of ten three-year-olds, most of whom arrive with limited experience or modest form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 58 and 39, underlining the open nature of the race and the number of unknowns around trip, ground and course. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, positioning and the ability to quicken off a modest gallop are likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Several runners prefer to settle in mid-division or be held up, so the early fractions are unlikely to be strong. The key question is which horse can produce the most effective turn of foot when the tempo lifts inside the final two furlongs, particularly from a favourable draw or racing position.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mac An Luais KTB Selection58/100
Mac An Luais is the KTB Selection. This lightly raced three-year-old has only a single run behind him, when he finished seventh on debut. The small sample makes it impossible to judge his ability or how he will handle this trip, the ground or the track. Luke McAteer rides, and the jockey has an 11% strike rate from 44 rides at Down Royal. Trainer Patrick T Foley has a 25% strike rate at the track from a small sample of four runs, though the overall trainer-jockey combination shows 8/94 (9%) with an A/E of 0.89. Mac An Luais typically settles in mid-division and is drawn in stall six.
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2Monty Bear50/100
Monty Bear has shown little in three starts to date and was beaten a long way on each occasion. He steps up from 6f to 7f today having already tried the trip twice without success. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Down Royal from 36 runs yet this remains a very low-confidence profile given the poor form and small overall sample. Reese Holohan takes the ride with a 14% strike rate at the track from seven rides. The trainer-jockey record stands at 2/47 (4%) with an A/E of 0.42. Monty Bear is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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3Keogie49/100
Keogie is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. Dropping back from 1m looks a sensible move given his placed effort over 7f on his only attempt at the distance. Trainer Noel Meade has a 16% strike rate at Down Royal from a large sample of 852 runs while the small going sample means conditions remain an unknown. Adam Caffrey rides with a 4% strike rate at the track from 57 rides. The trainer-jockey record is 6/80 (8%) with an A/E of 0.98. Keogie is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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4Blooming Rose47/100
Blooming Rose showed promise when third on debut over this trip. The lightly-raced filly has only one piece of form to go on so any improvement will be hard to weigh up. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at Down Royal from 241 runs while jockey J M Sheridan operates at 11% from 63 rides at the track. The trainer-jockey record stands at 41/243 (17%) with an A/E of 1.04. Blooming Rose typically settles in mid-division on what little evidence there is.
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5Notahairoutofplace46/100
Notahairoutofplace has only three career runs and steps back sharply from 2m1f to an untried 7f, so this is very much an unknown quantity. The yard's record at Down Royal is modest with a 3% strike rate from 250 runs. Data confidence is low and the assessment should be read with caution given the small sample. James Ryan takes the ride with an 11% strike rate at the track from 38 rides. Notahairoutofplace typically settles in mid-division on the limited evidence available.
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6Daring Heart45/100
Daring Heart showed promise when second on her second start after an ordinary debut. She now drops back to 7f for the first time in first-time headgear while drawn in stall 2. The trainer has a 15% strike rate from 276 runs at Down Royal.
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7Orellana43/100
Orellana has shown fair form in three runs, finishing second on her latest start at this trip. She was only fourth when tried here on her penultimate outing though and the yard's 4% strike rate from 227 runs at Down Royal offers little encouragement. Siobhan Rutledge has a 5% strike rate from 56 rides at the track.
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8Caption This42/100
Caption This has only two runs on the board and both were poor, leaving very little to go on. The yard records a modest 7% strike-rate at Down Royal from 45 runs. Dropping back from 1m to 7f asks a fresh question of a horse whose ability remains largely unknown.
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9Freddiesadienray42/100
Freddiesadienray is a lightly raced 3-year-old with just one run on the board so any assessment has to be tentative. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Down Royal from a big sample suggests the yard is not in its strongest form here. Trip looks suitable on paper but the small sample gives no real clues yet.
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10Monmouth39/100
Monmouth is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on his two most recent starts, finishing third on the second of those over this trip. Stall one could be a help but first-time headgear is an unknown and the small sample makes it hard to be sure how the good ground will suit. Aidan O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at the track from 147 runs.
KTB verdict
Mac An Luais is the KTB Selection in a race where so many runners come with limited or modest form. His debut seventh provides a starting point and the trainer's 25% strike rate at Down Royal from a small sample is encouraging, while the jockey's record at the track adds further interest. The steadily-run pace should suit a horse that settles in mid-division. Main dangers include Blooming Rose, who showed promise on debut, Keogie with his consistent placed form at the trip, and the unexposed Daring Heart in first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Mac An Luais
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Mac An Luais | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Monty Bear | 150/1 | Bet365 |
| Keogie | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Blooming Rose | 10/3 | Bet Victor |
| Notahairoutofplace | 150/1 | Bet365 |
| Daring Heart | 5/4 | BetTom |
| Orellana | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Caption This | 150/1 | Bet365 |
| Freddiesadienray | 150/1 | Bet365 |
| Monmouth | 10/3 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:09 Down Royal. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Down Royal racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Down Royal results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Mac An Luais rated the selection despite only one run?
His lightly raced profile and the 25% trainer strike rate at Down Royal from a small sample give him the edge in a race full of unknowns.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Down Royal?
Noel Meade has a 16% strike rate at Down Royal from 852 runs.
What is the significance of first-time headgear for Daring Heart and Monmouth?
Both wear first-time headgear, which is an unknown for each.
Why is the trip a question for Notahairoutofplace?
He steps back sharply from 2m1f to an untried 7f.
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