4:02 Bath
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at Bath on good to firm ground brings together a field of 12 where the KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but not especially deep event. The top five in the KTB order are separated by just nine points, suggesting little between them on pure numbers, while the race lacks any obvious pace influence up front. With the selection Toolatetonegotiate heading the KTB Fit list on 65, the race shapes as one where proven course performers and those with strong recent handicap form should hold the key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical sprint in which being handy to the pace is likely to pay dividends. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB order, are held-up types who produce their effort late, which could leave the race vulnerable to a prominent runner stealing an uncontested advantage. The key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough without overdoing it on a track where a steadily-run affair often favours those with a turn of foot from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Toolatetonegotiate KTB Selection65/100
Toolatetonegotiate is a fair performer who has won at this track and over today's trip. She has a solid recent record on good to firm ground and holds a course win from seven runs here. The trainer's modest strike rate at Bath is offset by the jockey's 5 lb claim. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the way this race is likely to unfold given the absence of an obvious leader. Her recent form figures of 321082 show consistency at this level and the combination of yard and jockey carries an A/E of 1.79 with positive LSP.
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2South Shore60/100
South Shore is a fair handicapper in good heart with recent form of 112221 and a solid course record that includes a placing here. He has won four times at this trip and acts on good to firm ground, though his record on it is modest with just two wins from 14 starts. The yard has an 18 percent strike rate at Bath from 114 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps up in class here but looks sure to be competitive if the steadily-run nature of the race plays to his strengths. Tom Marquand takes the ride on a horse with an excellent recent sequence.
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3Aces Wild59/100
Aces Wild is a fair performer who has won at this trip seven times from 31 starts and has a solid record here with one victory from five runs at Bath. He has shown good form on good to firm ground with a win and three places from five attempts, though his recent form of 611310 suggests he can be inconsistent. The trainer holds a 15% strike rate from 278 runs at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he drops in class which could bring out further improvement. The jockey's record at the track is modest but the horse's course-and-distance prowess cannot be ignored.
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4Brave Nation56/100
Brave Nation is a fair sort who has won four times at this trip and handles good to firm ground well with three wins from 13 starts. He arrives in decent form after a win and a close third in his last two runs and is drawn in stall five. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Bath from 163 runs. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, he has no course form on record but his recent efforts suggest he remains a live contender. The combination of yard and jockey shows a modest A/E yet the horse himself brings strong recent handicap form.
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5Jax Edge56/100
Jax Edge is a fair handicapper who has won three times at this track from nine runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 18 attempts. He has won twice on good to firm but that is from 18 starts on the surface so the ground is not a guaranteed plus. The yard posts a 10 percent strike rate at Bath from 168 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has course-and-distance wins to his name and recent form of 617823 that keeps him in the picture. Gina Mangan takes the ride for a yard with a positive A/E at the track.
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6Alondra54/100
Alondra is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a recent win at this trip. She has won once from nine starts on good to firm and has four wins from 15 runs at today's distance, though the trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 45 runs at Bath is a negative. Usually held up, she has no course form on record.
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7Maharajas Express53/100
Maharajas Express is a modest performer who has won at this trip and at this track from just three runs here. Consistent of late with two seconds from his last three starts and he has placed twice on good to firm ground without winning. Ian Williams has a solid 12% strike rate at Bath from a big sample while David Probert is aboard. Usually held up, he has a course win to his name.
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8Forager52/100
Forager is a fair performer with a solid record on this ground, including three wins from eight starts on good to firm. He has also won four times at today's trip from 15 attempts and brings recent form that includes a win earlier this year. The yard has a 0% strike rate from six runs at Bath while this is the horse's first visit to the track. Usually held up with medium confidence.
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9Correspondence50/100
Correspondence is a modest performer who has run well here without winning, finishing placed on both visits to Bath. Consistent rather than progressive this year with a string of mid-division finishes, though he has won on this ground and at today's trip. Trainer has a solid record at the track while Rossa Ryan is a positive booking. Usually held up.
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10Coyy49/100
Coyy is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has looked limited at it in recent runs. Dropping back from 6f is a positive on paper given his two wins at 5f, and he acts on good to firm with two wins and three places from five starts. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Bath from a big sample, though the horse himself was well beaten on his only previous run here. Usually held up.
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11Carefree Dream44/100
Carefree Dream is a modest performer who has won once over this trip and once at Bath from just two runs here. Recent form is ordinary at best and he has failed to place in three runs on good to firm ground. Trainer's modest record at the track adds no encouragement. Usually held up while stepping up in class.
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12Kodicall41/100
Kodicall is a limited performer who has shown some ability, finishing second over this course and trip on his penultimate start before a modest effort dropped to 5f last time. He now drops back in trip again having been placed once at the distance without winning. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 544 runs at Bath. The only prominent runner in the field.
KTB verdict
Toolatetonegotiate is the KTB Selection and looks to hold all the right credentials for this steadily-run Bath sprint. A fair performer with a course win to her name and a solid record on good to firm, she is well treated by the 5 lb claimer and the trainer-jockey combination has produced positive returns. The race is likely to be decided in the final furlong given the preponderance of held-up runners and she is expected to come home strongly. South Shore and Aces Wild head the list of dangers, both bringing strong recent form and course knowledge, while Jax Edge's three course wins make him another to consider in what looks a typically trappy Class 4.
KTB Selection Toolatetonegotiate
This is the narrative read of the 4:02 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Bath?
Toolatetonegotiate and Jax Edge both have course wins, with Jax Edge recording three from nine runs while Toolatetonegotiate has one from seven.
How many of the field are usually held up?
Eleven of the twelve runners are described as usually held up, with only Kodicall racing prominently.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Bath among those represented?
Robert Cowell has an 18% strike rate at Bath from 114 runs.
What does the pace shape suggest for race tactics?
The race lacks a leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horses are stepping up or down in class?
South Shore is stepping up in class, while Aces Wild, Carefree Dream and Kodicall are dropping in class.
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