Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 60 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). With a claiming rider up the record reads 12% (196 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 324 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceMr Robbie David: 14.2% from 127Claiming riders: 12.2%
The read
Mr Robbie David rides 39% of the entries and edges the yard's average (14.2% vs 9.3%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Soft going (14.7%, n=34) and on Good to Soft going (14%, n=50).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.5%−1.8
n=40 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −22.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.7%−1.6
n=26 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +3.75
Debutants · first career start
0%−9.3
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−9.3
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.3
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
When favourite
30.4%
n=23 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +1.24
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.2%+2.9
n=196 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −1.76
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Mr Robbie David14.2% vs 9.3% · n=127
On Soft going14.7% vs 9.3% · n=34
On Good to Soft going14% vs 9.3% · n=50
With Harry Reed5.1% vs 9.3% · n=79
With a new jockey booking5.3% vs 9.3% · n=94
With claiming riders up12.2% vs 9.3% · n=196
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle167159%−36.95
Flat8389.6%−17.25
Chase61711.5%−19.31
NH Flat1300%−13.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good152117.2%−83.70
Good to Soft50714%+50.50
Standard (AW)39410.3%−7.75
Soft34514.7%−16.31
Good to Firm3026.7%−20.25
Heavy1516.7%−5.00
Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot4648.7%−25.45
Stratford29517.2%−1.00
Wincanton26311.5%+15.00
Exeter2428.3%−16.25
Taunton2414.2%−18.50
Worcester2114.8%−6.00
Bath19210.5%−4.50
Lingfield (AW)14321.4%+5.25
Fontwell1218.3%+14.00
Kempton (AW)1100%−11.00
Newbury1000%−10.00
Southwell9111.1%−7.56
Huntingdon900%−9.00
Wolverhampton (AW)800%−8.00
Chepstow800%−8.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 51491711.4%+3.69
Class 412797.1%−78.20
Class 622313.6%+5.00
Class 31516.7%−6.00
Class 2600%−6.00
Class 1500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite25728%1.00−0.76
2nd–3rd fav681014.7%0.76−20.25
4th–6th fav11897.6%1.08−31.50
7th+ in betting11343.5%1.32−34.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f11198.1%−43.00
1m5f – 2m7867.7%−21.06
2m5f – 3m54713%−16.00
Under 6f36411.1%−10.25
1m2f – 1m4f15213.3%+5.00
6f – 7f1100%−11.00
1m – 1m1f1000%−10.00
Over 3m9222.2%+19.80
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202412686.3%−49.25
20251101210.9%−14.95
2026881011.4%−22.31
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2452811.4%−17.51
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners12586.4%−84.00
5-7 runners881112.5%−20.95
11-13 runners69710.1%+23.50
14-16 runners2514%−20.50
17+ runners9111.1%+17.00
2-4 runners8225%−1.56
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 40 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 40 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Brian Barr (5) and Eoin Doyle (2); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
7 have since run for another yard; 33 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
31715814338101309
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,533 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.3% from 408.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,127 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 142.
Kalanisi (IRE)15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,742 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 324 · newest first
The latest 50 of 324 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 March 2024 to 17 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Daisy Hitchins's strike rate?
Daisy Hitchins has won 30 of 324 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Daisy Hitchins do best at?
Newton Abbot by strike rate: 4 wins from 46 runners (8.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Daisy Hitchins?
Mr Robbie David, with 127 runners since 2022 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (14.2%).
Is Daisy Hitchins in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Daisy Hitchins's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 323 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Daisy Hitchins·SR 9.3%·A/E 0.96
KTB
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