4:35 Bath
This Class 6 nursery handicap over Bath's extended 5f looks a modest affair for juveniles, with the KTB Fit scores reflecting a lack of standout quality across the 12-runner field. The numbers point to a race where consistency and track familiarity will matter more than raw ability, and the high-confidence lone-leader pace shape suggests an uncontested front-runner could prove difficult to reel in late. Several runners have shown minor placings without winning, and with first-time headgear on a few, there is scope for some to improve on what are largely modest official ratings.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to get an easy time up front according to the pace shape, the race should unfold with one horse dictating from the front while the remainder settle in behind. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, which raises the key question of whether any closer can bridge the gap if the leader is allowed to get away. The wide-open draw across stalls one to twelve adds another layer, as those on the outside may struggle to get into the race early enough on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Polly The Sniper55/100
Polly The Sniper has shown consistent modest form, finishing second here over this trip on her penultimate start and placing once in four runs at the distance overall. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Bath from a large sample and the filly has already placed on this track. First-time headgear is now added to a lightly-raced profile where the going remains an unknown. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the race to fall right if the uncontested leader gets first run. Her placed effort on this course gives her a foothold in the race, though the good-to-firm ground is still to be fully proven.
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2Past Passion KTB Selection55/100
Past Passion is a modest performer who has shown consistency in recent runs with a string of minor placings. She has already placed at today's trip and has the benefit of a low draw, though she was well held when tried here previously. The Portman yard posts a solid 12% strike rate at Bath while Rob Hornby has a respectable record at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy lead. Placed once from two runs on good to firm, she brings a level of reliability that few others can match at this level.
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3Snow On The Beach52/100
Snow On The Beach has shown only modest form in three runs at this trip and looks no better than fair at this level. The yard has a solid 17 percent strike-rate at Bath and Rossa Ryan is a positive booking, but the colt was only sixth on his sole visit here and the wide draw in stall 10 adds another negative. Data confidence remains medium at best given the small sample. Usually held up, though with limited evidence, he will need to find extra if the leader is not for catching. Dropping in class is a plus, yet the lack of experience on good to firm adds to the unknowns.
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4Last Dandelion51/100
Last Dandelion is a limited performer who has shown occasional spark but remains winless after nine starts. He has a placed effort over today's trip and another on this ground, though the recent form of 045320 suggests consistency is still an issue. Trainer Stuart Williams holds a solid 16% strike rate at Bath from 87 runs while the 5f160y course experience produced only a modest fourth on the one visit. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be among those trying to close late. Dropping in class may help, but his overall profile points to him needing everything to go his way.
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5Good Fighter48/100
Good Fighter has shown only limited ability in five starts to date with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact in two previous tries at this distance. The yard has no runners recorded at Bath. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he could be the one to take advantage of the lone-leader shape and set the fractions. With no course form on record and no win or place from three runs on good to firm, he remains vulnerable to anything that can travel and finish strongly.
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6Hemustbeanangel48/100
Hemustbeanangel is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on three of his four starts, finishing third twice including over this trip. He drops back from 7f today which looks a sensible move given his placed effort at this distance. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Bath from a decent-sized sample. Usually held up with limited evidence, he brings some placed form but remains short of the principals on KTB ratings.
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7Premium Seat47/100
Premium Seat is a modest performer who has shown little in three runs at this trip. The yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Bath from a huge sample suggests this is no easy spot for a lightly-raced juvenile. Trip looks about right on what has been seen so far. Dropping in class and racing from mid-division, he has yet to prove himself on good to firm.
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8It's A Dream47/100
It's A Dream has shown only modest form in three starts to date and is officially rated as limited. Dropping back from 7f to around 6f is an unknown at this stage while the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal on a sharp track. The yard's modest record at Bath adds no encouragement. Tending to make the running with limited evidence, he could go forward but has plenty to find.
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9Foxsbrush44/100
Foxsbrush is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion. Stall one could be some help but the yard's modest record here offers little encouragement. Trip looks about right on what has been seen so far. Dropping in class, he remains towards the bottom of the KTB Fit ratings.
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10Courseyoudo43/100
Courseyoudo is a modest 2-year-old who has shown little in five runs to date and now tries first-time headgear. He steps up to 5¾f having failed to make an impact at this trip last time. Trainer has only two runs at Bath so the sample is too small to judge. Usually held up, he has considerable ground to make up on the principals.
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11Devon Angel42/100
Devon Angel is a limited filly who has shown bits of ability in six runs this year yet remains winless and has failed to place in three starts at this track. She has handled this trip okay without winning and the first-time headgear is now reached for after a string of placed efforts. Millman has a solid 10% strike rate here from a big sample while de Sousa is riding. Usually held up with high confidence, she brings placed form but has not convinced at this venue.
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12So Tempting39/100
So Tempting is a limited performer who has shown just one placing in six starts, most recently finishing fifth of eight at this track. First-time headgear is now applied in a bid to sharpen her up. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Bath offers little encouragement. Usually held up, she looks up against it on the ratings.
KTB verdict
Past Passion stands out as the KTB Selection in a race where most runners are modest and largely unproven winners. She brings a string of minor placings, has already shown she can handle the trip, and benefits from a low draw that should help her get a good position from off the pace in a race with a clear leader. The Portman yard's solid record at Bath adds to her claims, and she has the profile to capitalise if the leader comes back to the field. Her main dangers are Polly The Sniper, who has already placed over course and distance and now tries first-time headgear, and Snow On The Beach, who drops in class with Rossa Ryan booked despite the wide draw. Last Dandelion and Good Fighter, who could go forward, round out the main threats in what looks an open nursery.
KTB Selection Past Passion
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Good Fighter or It's A Dream, as both are noted as tending to make the running or race prominently in a race with a lone-leader pace shape.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Four: Polly The Sniper, Courseyoudo, Devon Angel and So Tempting.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Bath?
Polly The Sniper, who finished second here over this trip on her penultimate start.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Bath according to the supplied data?
Alice Bond with a 75% strike rate from four rides.
Why might the race be difficult for held-up horses?
The high-confidence lone-leader pace shape means one clear front-runner is likely to get an easy lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
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