7:45 Kempton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap over 7f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together an eleven-strong field of three-year-olds, most of whom are modest performers yet to make a significant mark. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Creciente heading the numbers on 58, followed closely by Arc La Shari on 55 and Who Is Alice on 54, underlining a race where ability is limited across the board. Several runners are unproven on the surface and at the track, adding layers of uncertainty to a contest that looks winnable for one of the better-treated principals if the expected strong pace materialises.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the field, notably Who Is Alice from stall 1 and Poetic Grace. This shape is likely to stretch the field early and increase the chance of the leaders coming back to the pack late on. Hold-up performers such as Creciente, Arc La Shari and Bessie Wallis are therefore well positioned to capitalise if the pace collapses. The key question is whether the prominent runners can get away with it or if the race will be won from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Creciente KTB Selection58/100
Creciente is the KTB Selection. A limited performer who has been in and out of form this year, he now drops back to 7f after his last run over a mile. He has won at today's trip but is unproven on standard to slow going and makes his first start at Kempton. The yard operates at a 10% strike rate here from a big sample of 730 runs. David Egan takes the ride with a 12% strike rate at the track from 577 rides, while the trainer and jockey combination shows a 7/48 record with an A/E of 1.32. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7 and arrives off an OR of 54 with recent form figures of 461238.
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2Arc La Shari55/100
Arc La Shari is a limited performer on what he has shown in five runs to date and his recent form has been poor. He drops back to 7f today having failed to make the frame at that trip on his first three starts. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 182 runs at Kempton. Oisin Orr takes the mount and boasts a 25% strike rate at the track from a small sample of eight rides with an A/E of 1.88. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 8, he is unproven on standard to slow ground, has no course form and carries an OR of 55 with recent form figures of 36-070.
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3Who Is Alice54/100
Who Is Alice is a limited horse who has been largely out of her depth this year and has now been dropped to the bottom grade. She has won over today's trip but is unproven on standard to slow going and makes her first appearance at Kempton. The trainer records a 7% strike rate here from 107 runs. George Bass is in the saddle with a 6% strike rate at the venue from 130 rides and an A/E of 0.8. Tending to make the running or race on the pace from the inside draw in stall 1, she carries an OR of 53 with recent form figures of 655305.
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4Bessie Wallis47/100
Bessie Wallis is a limited filly who has shown only modest form across ten runs. She has been beaten a long way on all three starts here and has failed to place in two runs on this surface. The yard's poor record at the track adds to the negatives. Kieren Fox rides for a trainer and jockey combination that shows 25/451 with an A/E of 0.78. Usually held up and producing her effort late from stall 6, she is rated OR 55 with recent form figures of 554487. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Kempton from 988 runs while the jockey shows 9% from 577 rides.
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5Mokata46/100
Mokata is a limited performer who has shown little in eight starts and looks no better than modest on recent evidence. He drops back to 7f today having failed to make an impact at that trip earlier in the year and is unproven on standard to slow ground. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Kempton from a small sample of eight runs. Charles Bishop takes the ride with a 7% strike rate at the track from 832 rides. Typically settling in midfield from stall 2, he carries an OR of 43 with recent form figures of 059767. The trainer and jockey partnership shows 5/29 with an A/E of 1.28.
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6Ridger46/100
Ridger is limited on ability but has shown some spark at this trip, winning one of four starts and finishing a close second on his most recent outing. Drawn wide in stall 10 which is no help on a sharp track like Kempton, while the trainer's modest 8% strike rate from 129 runs here adds little confidence. Usually held up with limited evidence, he is unproven on standard to slow ground and carries an OR of 47 with recent form figures of 997231.
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7Squashy Berry44/100
Squashy Berry has shown very little in four starts to date and sits right at the bottom of the handicap as a limited performer. He was well held on his only previous visit to Kempton and has failed to trouble the judge in both runs at this trip. First-time headgear is now fitted while the trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample. Usually held up with limited evidence, he carries an OR of 46 with recent form figures of 0870.
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8Poetic Grace41/100
Poetic Grace has shown only limited ability across ten runs and arrives in modest form having failed to finish in the first three on her last four starts. She drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip earlier in the year, though she is unproven on standard to slow going and makes her first appearance at Kempton. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate here from 190 runs. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she carries an OR of 43 with recent form figures of 435564.
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9Lady V41/100
Lady V is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts and now drops back to 7f after failing over a mile last time. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Kempton offers no encouragement while the jockey also records a low strike rate here. Recent form of 6-8698 underlines a horse still struggling to make an impact at this level. Usually held up with limited evidence, she carries an OR of 47.
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10Leia Antilles37/100
Leia Antilles is a limited performer who has failed to land a blow in six runs this year and looks up against it from stall 9. She drops back to 7f having looked stretched by 1m last time but remains unproven on standard to slow going. Henry Candy has a 10% strike rate at Kempton while Nicola Currie is making her first ride at the track. Typically settling in midfield, she carries an OR of 40 with recent form figures of 874567.
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11Miss Gold31/100
Miss Gold is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts and looks up against it from a modest handicap mark. She steps up to 7f for the first time today after failing to make any impression over 6f last time. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 124 runs while the jockey has a 0% strike rate at Kempton from six rides. She carries an OR of 38 with recent form figures of -09988.
KTB verdict
Creciente is the KTB Selection in a race where the standard of opposition is modest. His ability to produce an effort late from a hold-up position aligns well with the strong pace that is expected, and he has already shown he can win over this trip. The drop back from a mile looks a positive move given his recent form figures of 461238. Main dangers are likely to come from Arc La Shari and Who Is Alice, both of whom share similar unproven elements on the surface and at the track but sit close behind on the KTB Fit Scores.
KTB Selection Creciente
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven to have won over today's 7f trip?
Creciente and Who Is Alice have both won over today's trip.
How many runners are unproven on standard to slow going?
Eight runners have no runs on standard to slow going and are therefore unproven on the ground.
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Who Is Alice tends to make the running or race on the pace and Poetic Grace also tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Kempton according to the supplied data?
Adam Kirby has a 13% strike rate at Kempton from a small sample of eight runs.
Which jockey has recorded the highest strike rate at Kempton in the field?
Oisin Orr has a 25% strike rate at Kempton from eight rides.
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