7:15 Kempton (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over 7f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of 13 limited performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The top five are separated by just nine points on the KTB scale, with Virtue Patience heading the numbers on 59 as the selection while Portman Blue sits right behind on 58. Most of the field carries recent placed form or course experience, yet the lack of any standout class edge makes this a race where run-style, draw and the first-time headgear on several runners could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around the two-furlong marker. The key question is whether any horse can overcome the traffic problems that often arise in such races at Kempton or whether the first-time headgear on the top two will help them quicken sufficiently to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Virtue Patience KTB Selection59/100
Virtue Patience arrives with a KTB Fit of 59 and is the clear selection. A limited performer, she has been placed on both starts on standard to slow ground and produced her best effort at this track when second over a mile. Dropping back to 7f is a positive as she has already won at the trip, and she is dropping in class. First-time headgear is now fitted while trainer Amanda Perrett strikes at a steady 12% rate at Kempton from a large sample and Pat Dobbs has an 11% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up, she will be looking to produce her effort late from a favourable draw in stall three.
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2Portman Blue58/100
Portman Blue is rated just a point behind on KTB Fit of 58. This modest performer has shown some spark at this track and trip, having been placed on his only visit to Kempton and placed twice at 7f, including once on standard to slow going. He has failed to win in ten starts overall but first-time headgear is now tried. The yard holds a solid 14% strike rate at the venue and jockey David Egan has a 12% strike rate at Kempton. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be coming from off the pace.
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3Twitch54/100
Twitch carries a KTB Fit of 54. A limited performer who has been in and out of form this year, he showed his best when winning a similar race at this trip last time. He has placed once from two runs here on standard to slow ground and his trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Kempton from a small sample. The draw in stall two should help, yet he remains vulnerable to anything better on the day. Usually held up with high confidence, the 9-year-old is ridden by Georgia Dobie who partners the yard with a 14% strike rate combined.
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4Kondratiev Wave50/100
Kondratiev Wave is next on a KTB Fit of 50. This limited performer has been around a long time and remains consistent at this level, placing in four of his last six starts. He has shown up well at Kempton in the past with a second from three runs here and acts on standard to slow ground where he has been competitive without winning. The wide draw in stall 12 is a negative on a track where the inside is often favoured. Usually held up with high confidence, he is trained by Tony Carroll who has an 8% strike rate at the venue.
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5Addictive50/100
Addictive completes the principals with a KTB Fit of 50. A limited performer who has shown very little in four starts this year, he looks out of his depth in most races. This is his first run at Kempton and he steps up markedly in trip from 5f, both of which ask fresh questions. Trainer Craig Benton has a solid 14% strike-rate here from 14 runs, though jockey Olivia Tubb is still seeking her first Kempton winner. Usually held up, he will need to improve markedly to feature.
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6Pickering Castle48/100
Pickering Castle is a limited performer who has won once at this trip but is 0-14 since and has struggled to land a blow in recent runs. Only one previous visit to Kempton produced a modest sixth and the yard's 12% strike rate from 913 runs at the track is below par, though he has placed once from two starts on standard to slow going.
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7Wildfell46/100
Wildfell is a limited performer who has won once from two starts at Kempton and holds a win on today's standard to slow surface. Dropping back to 7f having last run over a mile, he owns a solid three wins from seven starts at the trip, though the trainer is 0-5 at the track.
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8Camera Shy46/100
Camera Shy is a limited performer who has failed to win in 23 starts this year and looks no better than modest on recent form. He has won over today's trip but showed little at Kempton on his only previous run here and is unconvincing on standard to slow ground from one run; the trainer has a 10% strike rate from 20 runs at the track.
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9Ararat45/100
Ararat is a limited performer who has been beaten a long way on both previous starts at Kempton. He has won three times at this trip but his recent form is poor and the yard has a zero percent strike rate from 50 runs here, though the draw in stall one is a small plus on a track where the rail can be an advantage.
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10Fort Augustus45/100
Fort Augustus is a limited performer who has been in and out this year and looks no better than fair on his recent form figures. He has placed once from five runs at Kempton without winning and is 1 from 4 on standard to slow ground while stepping up to 7f today having won at the trip in the past, but the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track is a negative.
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11Ajrad44/100
Ajrad is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent Class 6 races without looking like winning. He has shown little at this track in four runs and has failed to place in four starts on standard to slow going, though dropping back to 7f is a plus as he has won at the trip before.
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12Maury42/100
Maury is a limited performer who has been struggling for form all year and finished no better than seventh on his last six starts. He has won over today's trip in the past but showed little when tenth on his only previous run here and has been unplaced on his sole start on standard to slow ground.
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13Ashford Hill35/100
Ashford Hill is a limited performer who has been running to form without winning lately. He has placed once from five starts at this track and shown some competitiveness on standard to slow ground, though he has never won on it and the yard's modest 6% strike rate at Kempton adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Virtue Patience is the KTB Selection. She has been placed on both starts on standard to slow ground, showed her best effort at Kempton when second over a mile, and drops back to a trip at which she has already won while also dropping in class. First-time headgear may help her produce her effort late from a good draw. The main dangers are Portman Blue, who has shown spark at the track and trip with first-time headgear now applied, and Twitch, who won a similar race last time and benefits from a low draw, while Kondratiev Wave's consistency and course placed form cannot be ignored despite the wide stall.
KTB Selection Virtue Patience
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear significant for the top two in the betting?
Both Virtue Patience and Portman Blue are tried in first-time headgear, an unknown factor for the selection and a possible help for the modest performer who has failed to win in ten starts.
How does the draw influence the principals?
Stalls two and three occupied by Twitch and Virtue Patience should help on a track where the inside is often favoured, while Kondratiev Wave in stall 12 faces a negative.
What does the pace shape suggest for race tactics?
Lacking a leader, the race is likely to be steadily-run and tactical, with being handy paying and late runners such as the held-up principals needing a clear run.
Which trainer has the strongest recent record at Kempton among those represented?
Craig Benton has a 14% strike rate at Kempton from 14 runs and holds the joint-strongest small-sample record alongside his own 14% with the trainer-jockey combination for Twitch.
Which horse has the most course experience in the field?
Fort Augustus has run five times at Kempton, placing once, while Ashford Hill has five runs here with one placing; no horse has more starts at the venue.
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