2:45 Killarney
This 18-runner Killarney Student Raceday Handicap over 1m0f30y on yielding to soft ground features a field of largely limited performers, with official ratings clustered tightly between 40 and 59. The KTB Fit Scores are headed by Big Bill on 61, closely followed by Jasmine Affanalis on 60 and Cisterna on 58, indicating a race where margins are likely to be small and several runners enter with questions to answer. Overall the numbers point to a competitive but modest contest in which course experience, ground suitability and the ability to race handily could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, the pace is expected to be modest early on. Prominent runners such as Big Bill should be able to secure a good position from their wide draw, while the majority of the field are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether those racing prominently can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of a strong closer in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Big Bill KTB Selection61/100
Big Bill is a limited sort who showed a bit more when winning a modest 1m maiden last time, his only attempt at today's trip. Drawn widest of all in a field of 18 and still has plenty to find on the balance of his form. He usually races handily, on or close to the lead, which should be an asset in a race lacking an obvious front-runner. The trainer has no Killarney record from 18 runs overall, though the jockey boasts a 50% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.18 from just two rides. This yielding to soft ground represents only his second attempt on such a surface, where he has yet to win or place, and he has no previous course form.
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2Jasmine Affanalis60/100
Jasmine Affanalis is a limited performer who has been placed on all three starts at Killarney without winning. She has shown she can be competitive on yielding to soft ground and at this trip but has failed to land a race in 17 career runs. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair. The trainer's 9% strike rate at Killarney from 161 runs is modest, but this is offset by the jockey's strong 21% record at the track with an A/E of 1.53 from 14 rides. Her course form reads 2-2-2, underlining her liking for the venue.
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3Cisterna58/100
Cisterna is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and shown little spark in recent starts. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate from 164 runs at Killarney. This is the horse's first visit to the track and it steps up in trip having failed to make the frame in three previous tries at a mile. Usually held up and producing its effort late, Cisterna will need the race to develop favourably. It remains unproven on yielding to soft ground, adding a further layer of uncertainty.
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4Nibras Rainbow55/100
Nibras Rainbow is a limited performer who has won both starts at this track. He has a solid record on yielding to soft ground and has won twice at today's trip though he arrives from a longer distance last time out. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he possesses strong course form with two wins from two runs here. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate here from 102 runs is a negative while the jockey has no recorded rides at Killarney. His two wins from two starts on yielding to soft ground mark him out as one suited by the conditions.
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5Racing Royalty52/100
Racing Royalty is a limited performer who has struggled for consistency this year and arrives off the back of three modest efforts. It steps up in trip for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge in three previous tries at a mile, while the yard's 7% strike rate at Killarney from 28 runs offers little encouragement. Usually held up, this first run at the track and only one previous start on yielding to soft ground add to the unknowns. The trainer and jockey combination has a 25% strike rate from eight runs together.
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6Micasso52/100
Micasso is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives here with a recent string of poor efforts. It steps up in trip having won over this distance in the past but is unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate at Killarney while the jockey is operating below his usual level at the track with a 9% strike rate.
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7Oppenheimer48/100
Oppenheimer is a limited horse who has struggled for form this year with a string of poor efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time today having looked short of stamina over shorter, and his sole run on yielding to soft ground brought no encouragement. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 26 runs at Killarney.
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8Concaire48/100
Concaire is a limited performer who has shown occasional flashes without winning in eight starts. It drops back to a trip where he has placed once from two attempts, though he is unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at Killarney while the jockey is operating at 11%.
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9Tickle The Cat48/100
Tickle The Cat is a limited performer who has struggled in five starts to date and showed no improvement when seventh of 12 last time. Dropping back to 1m today asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 12 is another negative. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 26 runs at Killarney and the jockey is operating at 6% from 181 rides here.
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10My Mate Tony43/100
My Mate Tony is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives with a string of five duck eggs. It drops back sharply from 2m2f to 1m for the first time in first-time headgear while making its debut at Killarney. The trainer has yet to register a winner from 25 runs at this track and the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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11Sayonara43/100
Sayonara is a limited sort who has shown little spark in recent runs and now tries first-time headgear. It is placed once at this trip but steps up in distance for the first time today while unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer and jockey both have established but modest records at Killarney.
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12Mags42/100
Mags is a limited horse who has struggled badly of late with a string of heavy defeats. She did win over this trip earlier in her career but has shown nothing since and is unproven on this sort of ground. The trainer and jockey both have a 0% strike rate at Killarney from decent-sized samples.
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13Steppinoncats40/100
Steppinoncats has shown very little in three starts to date and carries the limited tag. Dropping back to an untried 1m poses a fresh question while the yard has no previous runners at Killarney. The jockey's modest 3% strike-rate from 60 rides at the track adds little encouragement.
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14One Cool County38/100
One Cool County is a limited performer who has shown very little in four starts to date. It has one run at this track when finishing sixth and is dropping back in trip today to a distance it has never tried. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Killarney is a negative while the jockey's 13% record here offers some compensation.
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15Draiocht37/100
Draiocht is a limited performer who has won once in two runs at Killarney. It steps up in trip today having last run over 7f, though it has won at a mile previously. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate from a large sample at the track is a negative, while the jockey has a solid 12% record here. It remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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16Rampage35/100
Rampage is a limited horse who has been running to a similar level for a while without winning. It drops back to a trip it has won at before though its recent efforts suggest it is vulnerable again from stall 2. The trainer and jockey both sit on a 4% strike rate at Killarney from decent sample sizes. It has placed once from one run on yielding to soft ground.
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17Lily's Magic35/100
Lily's Magic is a limited performer who has shown little in four starts to date. It has been tried over today's trip twice without success and now tries first-time headgear. The trainer is 0-6 at the track while the jockey has a solid 10% strike rate here from 20 rides. It remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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18Ochtar Againn35/100
Ochtar Againn is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a best recent effort of second at Listowel over further. It drops back to 1m today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at the trip. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at Killarney while the jockey is still seeking a first winner here. It remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
KTB verdict
Big Bill is the KTB Selection. He showed more when landing a modest 1m maiden last time, his only try at the trip, and his prominent run-style looks ideally suited to a steadily-run race that lacks an obvious leader. While he has plenty to find on balance and is drawn wide, the combination of recent progress and the jockey's excellent track record offers encouragement. The main dangers are Jasmine Affanalis, who has been placed on all three previous visits to Killarney and handles the ground, and Nibras Rainbow, who boasts a perfect record at the track and a good record on yielding to soft ground.
KTB Selection Big Bill
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Big Bill | 5/1 | Bet Victor |
| Jasmine Affanalis | 8/1 | Bet Victor |
| Cisterna | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Nibras Rainbow | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Racing Royalty | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
| Micasso | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Oppenheimer | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Concaire | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Tickle The Cat | 28/1 | Bet Victor |
| My Mate Tony | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Sayonara | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Mags | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Steppinoncats | 40/1 | Bet Victor |
| One Cool County | 40/1 | Bet Victor |
| Draiocht | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Rampage | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Lily's Magic | 40/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ochtar Againn | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Killarney results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Killarney?
Nibras Rainbow has won both of its two starts at the track.
How many runners are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Ten runners have no runs on yielding to soft ground and are therefore unproven.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Killarney among those with rides in this race?
Reese Holohan has a 50% strike rate at Killarney from two rides.
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a recent longer-distance run?
Nibras Rainbow arrives from a longer distance last time out.
How many principals are usually held up in running?
Four of the five principals are usually held up and produce their effort late.
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