4:29 Nottingham
This Class 4 handicap division at Nottingham over 1m2f50y on good ground features a field of 12 where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Edwin Hubble heads the ratings on 61, closely followed by Amancio on 60, Porth Eilian on 59, Marhaba The Champ on 58 and Great Blasket on 56, suggesting a competitive race in which several hold-up performers could be favoured. The overall numbers point to a contest where course knowledge, trip suitability and the ability to handle a strong pace will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is likely to be strong and the early fractions could be testing. Amancio and Del Corso are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, which sets up the possibility of the pace collapsing in the final furlong. That scenario would play into the hands of the numerous hold-up horses, with the key question being which of the patient runners can time their late effort best once the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Edwin Hubble KTB Selection61/100
Edwin Hubble is a fair three-year-old who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts at this trip. He acts on good ground having been placed twice from three starts on it and the yard have a solid record here. The jockey also knows the track well though this is the colt's first visit to Nottingham. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that style looks well suited to the anticipated strong pace. His recent form of 725133 underlines his reliability at this level and he arrives with a KTB Fit of 61 as the selection.
-
2Amancio60/100
Amancio is a fair performer who has been consistent at this trip, placing four times from seven starts without winning. He has shown some liking for good ground with two wins and seven places from 11 runs, though his sole visit to Nottingham resulted in an eighth-place finish. The trainer holds a strong 40% strike rate here from a small sample, while the jockey's modest 5% record from 331 rides tempers expectations. His tendency to make the running or race on the pace could see him set a strong gallop that may ultimately play into the hands of those coming from off the pace. With a KTB Fit of 60 he remains a solid player on his best days.
-
3Porth Eilian59/100
Porth Eilian is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with three wins from nine runs and a solid placed effort here last time. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him, while the wide draw in stall 12 adds another complication. Trainer strikes at 22% here and the jockey is 15% from plenty of rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his style aligns with the race's likely strong pace. Recent form of 131382 shows his competitiveness and with a KTB Fit of 59 he enters calculations despite the unknowns.
-
4Marhaba The Champ58/100
Marhaba The Champ is a fair performer who has won at this trip in the past but has been well below form on his last three starts and was well beaten when he tried this track as a 7-year-old. He drops back from 2m2f today which should suit him better and the yard's record here is respectable. Jockey has had too few rides at Nottingham to judge and the horse remains winless on good ground from 11 attempts. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that could be an asset if the strong pace takes its toll. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 58, he needs to show more than of late to figure prominently.
-
5Great Blasket56/100
Great Blasket is a fair performer who knows his way around Nottingham, having won two of four starts here. Consistent of late with three consecutive placed efforts and acts well on good ground, where he has six wins from 13 starts. Yet to score over today's trip from four attempts though he has placed three times at it. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his run-style fits the expected shape well. Stepping up in class with recent form of 761332 and a KTB Fit of 56, his course record gives him a clear angle.
-
6Kokoluna55/100
Kokoluna is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and on this ground. Has course experience on her side having won here from her only start at Nottingham. Trainer and jockey both operate at a steady 13% strike rate at the track. Stepping up in class and usually held up, she has a KTB Fit of 55.
-
7Del Corso49/100
Del Corso is a modest performer who has shown a good level of consistency this year with form figures of 421132. He has won twice at this trip and twice at Nottingham from four visits, including a recent success here, while he has also placed on good ground. The yard and jockey both have solid records at the track. His front-running style will set the pace in a race expected to be strongly run and he carries a KTB Fit of 49.
-
8Sapphire Steps48/100
Sapphire Steps is a fair performer who has not won in nine starts and has struggled to make an impact of late with form figures of 58406. Drops in class but steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 7f which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Nottingham while jockey records 11%. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 48.
-
9Double Red47/100
Double Red is a modest performer who has won twice here from three runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with three wins from 14 attempts. He has shown consistent form this year without quite landing a big one lately and acts on good ground. Trainer Henry Candy has a 13% strike rate from 312 runs at Nottingham while David Probert sits on 9% from 275 rides here. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 47.
-
10Patrol47/100
Patrol is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 363231 and has been competitive on good ground without winning. He drops back in trip today having placed twice at this distance from six attempts while last time out he ran over 1m4f. The trainer holds a strong 17% strike-rate at Nottingham but the jockey is operating at just 6% here from 32 rides. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 47 and stepping up in class.
-
11Sigliosa45/100
Sigliosa is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. Drops back from 1m4½f to an untried 1m2¼f today which asks a fresh question of her. Jason Watson has a solid 17% strike rate from 87 rides at Nottingham while the yard has no recorded runs here. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 45.
-
12Plan C42/100
Plan C is a fair performer who has shown some ability on his better days but has been below form on his last two starts. Has tried this trip three times without success and is drawn wide today. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Nottingham though the yard's strike-rate here is modest. Usually held up with a KTB Fit of 42.
KTB verdict
Edwin Hubble is the KTB Selection. A fair three-year-old with a win and two placed efforts at this trip this year, he acts on good ground and comes from a yard with a solid record at Nottingham. His hold-up style is well suited to a race in which the strong pace is expected to collapse late, allowing him to produce his effort at the right time. The main dangers are Amancio, whose front-running role could set things up perfectly if he stays on, and Porth Eilian, who showed a good placed effort here last time despite the wide draw and trip rise. Great Blasket's course record and recent consistency also make him a respected contender in a race where several hold-up types should be to the fore.
KTB Selection Edwin Hubble
This is the narrative read of the 4:29 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Porth Eilian steps up in trip for the first time today.
How many wins has Great Blasket recorded at Nottingham?
Great Blasket has won two of his four starts at Nottingham.
Which runners are expected to set a strong pace?
Amancio and Del Corso both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the course record of Double Red at Nottingham?
Double Red has won twice here from three runs.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Nottingham in the field?
Amancio's trainer holds a 40% strike rate at Nottingham from a small sample of five runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies