3:59 Nottingham
This Class 4 handicap division at Nottingham over 1m2f50y on good ground features a field of 13 three- and four-year-olds along with a couple of older horses. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Get Outta Here, Mythological Star and Medway Queen all rated in the low 60s, suggesting a competitive renewal where the principals are separated by very little. The race is run on good ground that several hold solid placed form on, though a few remain unproven.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Norman Invasion is the only front-runner in the field. He is likely to be allowed an uncontested lead from his draw in stall five. Most of the principals, including the selection Get Outta Here, Mythological Star, Medway Queen and Percival, are held-up types who will be produced late. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate terms and prove hard for the closers to peg back in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Get Outta Here KTB Selection62/100
Get Outta Here is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on good ground, landing one win and three seconds from eight starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him, though his placed efforts suggest he should stay. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.04 from 74 runs while the jockey posts a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 0.88 from 137 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. His placed record of three from three on good ground confirms he is competitive on this surface although he is yet to win on it. The wide draw in stall 12 is the main negative.
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2Mythological Star61/100
Mythological Star is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two places from his last four starts. He has already won on this trip and on good ground, recording one win from three runs on the surface with another placed effort. The yard holds a 17% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.14 from 30 runs and the jockey is operating at 16% with an A/E of 1.12 from 56 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall two which looks no disadvantage. He comes into this race with strong recent form figures of 331138.
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3Medway Queen60/100
Medway Queen is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form, finishing second in four of her five starts including over C&D on her latest outing. She steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow when tried at this distance previously. The trainer holds a strong 21% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 2.03 from 42 runs while the jockey records a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 1.2 from 179 rides. Usually held up, she has been placed on both starts on good ground without winning. She has course form to her name, having finished second here on her only previous visit.
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4Sudu57/100
Sudu is a fair performer who showed useful form when winning a 1m4f handicap last year but has been below that level on both starts this season. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.93 from 272 runs while the jockey is operating at 16% with an A/E of 1.07 from 114 rides. He typically settles in midfield. He has one win from four runs on good ground along with another placed effort and is dropping in class.
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5Percival53/100
Percival is a fair performer who has already won once at this trip from four attempts. He has been consistent enough without landing a recent blow and holds a solid course connection through his trainer who operates at a 17% strike rate here from 46 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no runs on good ground so remains unproven on the surface. His recent form reads 063456 and the small overall career sample leaves his exact level open to question. The jockey is operating at an 8% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.39 from 12 rides.
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6Norman Invasion53/100
Norman Invasion is a fair performer who showed his best when winning a 1m maiden at Sandown last time. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, which poses a fresh question. The trainer has an 18% strike rate from 154 runs at Nottingham while the jockey posts a strong 31% strike rate from 13 rides here. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and remains unproven on good ground while stepping up in class.
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7Princess Rascal52/100
Princess Rascal is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and now steps up in trip with first-time headgear. She has won twice at this distance in the past and is 1-1 on good ground, though the wide draw in stall 11 adds difficulty. The trainer has only one run at Nottingham so that remains an unknown while the jockey holds a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.84 from 217 rides.
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8Borjina52/100
Borjina is a modest performer who has shown a mix of promise and disappointment across seven runs. Nottingham suits the yard well with a solid 22% strike-rate and the jockey is equally at home here at 15%. Good ground looks fine and the wide draw in stall 13 is the main concern at a trip he has yet to prove himself over.
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9Brighton View51/100
Brighton View is a fair performer who has been busy this year with a solid recent record of 102134. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won at before and has already shown he handles good ground. The trainer and jockey both have established but modest strike rates at Nottingham while he is dropping in class.
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10Orchard47/100
Orchard is a fair performer who has won once over today's trip and arrives in decent form after a recent win. He showed only a modest effort when fourth on his sole visit to Nottingham and the yard's record here is also ordinary. First-time headgear is now applied and he has been placed once from two runs on good ground.
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11Impierious47/100
Impierious has shown consistent fair form, finishing no worse than third in four of his five starts, though he failed to build on that when seventh last time. He drops back in trip today having already tried this distance once without success and the small sample makes the going an unknown. The yard holds a modest 7% strike-rate at Nottingham from 56 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 32 rides here and he is dropping in class.
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12City of Kings46/100
City of Kings is a modest performer who has struggled since winning on debut as a 3-year-old, with recent form reading 16/009. He steps up in trip today to 1m2¼f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 269 runs at Nottingham while the jockey holds a 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.98 from 119 rides and he has one win from two runs on good ground.
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13Kasgani41/100
Kasgani is a modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning. He has placed once in two runs at Nottingham and has also placed at today's trip, though he remains winless in four attempts at this distance. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution while he has been placed once from three runs on good ground.
KTB verdict
Get Outtta Here is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent placed form on good ground and his efforts suggest he should stay the new trip, while both trainer and jockey have solid records at Nottingham. The wide draw is the main negative but he still looks to hold the best chance in a race where many are closely matched on the KTB numbers. Mythological Star is a danger having already won over the trip on good ground with a favourable draw, while Medway Queen brings C&D placed form and a strong trainer record at the track. Sudu and Percival are next in the KTB Fit Scores and cannot be ruled out if they handle the respective questions asked of them.
KTB Selection Get Outta Here
This is the narrative read of the 3:59 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Norman Invasion, as the only front-runner in the field and with the pace shape indicating a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals – Get Outta Here, Mythological Star, Medway Queen and Percival – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Nottingham according to the supplied data?
Medway Queen’s trainer with a 21% strike rate and A/E of 2.03 from 42 runs.
Which runner is making its first start in first-time headgear?
Princess Rascal and Orchard are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has course and distance form at Nottingham?
Medway Queen, who has finished second over C&D on her latest outing.
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