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Trainer profile

Dan Horsford

104 runners in the last 5 seasons · 23 individual horses
As at 24 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2022
14–104
Wins / Runs
13.5%
Strike rate
n=104
43 (41%)
Placed
1.10
Fair A/E
n=104 · 0.93 incl. margin
−10.89
£1 level stake
n=104 at SP · −10.5%
£141k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.10).

Deterministic profile computed from 104 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 6.5% (n=31, Fair A/E 0.65). The yard also reads well in Class 5 (17.1%, n=41). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 6.7% over 30 runners, 6.8pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.5%−7.0
n=31 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −13.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.3%−7.2
n=16 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
14.3%+0.8
n=7 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−13.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+36.5
n=4 · A/E 4.60 · £1 +16.00
When favourite
30.8%
n=13 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −0.89
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
20%+6.5
n=15 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −4.09
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−13.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 6.7% vs 13.5% · n=30
On Standard (AW) going 7.5% vs 13.5% · n=40
In Class 5 17.1% vs 13.5% · n=41
With a new jockey booking 10.8% vs 13.5% · n=65
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 68 9 13.2% −14.39
Hurdle 25 4 16% +1.50
NH Flat 9 1 11.1% +4.00
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 40 3 7.5% −19.80
Good 23 2 8.7% −11.00
Good to Soft 20 5 25% +17.00
Soft 13 2 15.4% −6.09
Good to Firm 5 1 20% −1.00
Heavy 2 1 50% +11.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 13 1 7.7% −10.80
Wolverhampton (AW) 9 1 11.1% −3.00
Lingfield (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Southwell (AW) 7 1 14.3% +5.00
Ffos Las 6 3 50% +17.50
Newbury 5 1 20% −1.50
York 4 1 25% +0.00
Goodwood 3 1 33.3% +1.00
Chester 3 1 33.3% −1.09
Chepstow 3 0 0% −3.00
Wetherby 3 0 0% −3.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Windsor 3 0 0% −3.00
Worcester 3 0 0% −3.00
Bath 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 41 7 17.1% +14.20
Class 4 39 5 12.8% −18.59
Class 6 20 2 10% −2.50
Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 17 4 23.5% 0.86 −4.89
2nd–3rd fav 25 5 20% 1.19 +0.00
4th–6th fav 35 4 11.4% 1.34 +8.00
7th+ in betting 27 1 3.7% 1.07 −14.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Nivelle's Magic (GB)from Simon Earle 10 2 6 23 Jan 26
Kiniro (GB)from Harry Charlton 9 1 4 22 Oct 26
Miss Lady Grace (IRE)from Alice Haynes 8 3 4 10 Oct 26
Crazy Plan (GB) 8 0 2 6 Oct 26
Robber's Bridge (IRE)from Simon Earle 7 2 4 22 Mar 26
Cruden (GB)from James Ewart 6 1 4 11 Jul 26
Eddie My Eagle (IRE) 6 2 4 25 Mar 26
Golden Dove (GB)from Simon Earle 6 0 2 29 Oct 25
Grey Soul (IRE)from Roger Varian 5 2 2 10 Oct 26
Stormy Lady (GB)from Alan King 5 0 1 4 Dec 25
Sigliosa (GB)from John Joseph Murphy 4 0 2 22 Oct 26
Chourmo (GB)from Mark Gillard 4 0 1 29 Apr 26
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 23 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Simon Earle (7) and J S Bolger (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
50250150393300900
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Brendan Powell 15 1 6.7% −4.00
Jason Watson 15 1 6.7% −10.00
Rob Hornby 9 2 22.2% +8.50
Philip Armson 6 2 33.3% +2.50
Alexandra Egan 5 2 40% +0.91
Jack Mitchell 5 0 0% −5.00
Oisin Murphy 4 1 25% −1.80
Hollie Doyle 4 1 25% +2.00
Kieran Shoemark 4 1 25% +9.00
Harry Cobden 4 0 0% −4.00
Charlie Deutsch 3 0 0% −3.00
Jack Nicholls 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
14
Archived wins
£141k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 11 wins
Cruden (GB) — John Smith's Stayers' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) York · Jul 2026 · Class 4
£12,885
Eddie My Eagle (IRE) — Simple Boost Tokens Now At BetVictor Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Newbury · Feb 2026 · Class 4
£8,714
Miss Lady Grace (IRE) — Allington Hughes Law Handicap (Div 2) Chester · Jun 2026 · Class 4
£7,731
Notable horses
Miss Lady Grace (IRE) Nivelle's Magic (GB) Robber's Bridge (IRE) Eddie My Eagle (IRE) Grey Soul (IRE) Kiniro (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Planteur (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,516 runs since 2008 (158 horses).
Hellvelyn (GB) 20% · 2–10
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,952 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.7% from 256.
Havana Gold (IRE) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,054 runs since 2008 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 116. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Space Blues (IRE) 37.5% · 3–8
Progeny have won 12.6% of 720 runs since 2008 (130 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16% from 169.
Wings Of Eagles (FR) 25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,011 runs since 2008 (156 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.4% from 291. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.5% from 134.
Frammassone (IRE) 28.6% · 2–7
Progeny have won 11.3% of 451 runs since 2008 (34 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.8% from 117.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 104 · newest first

The latest 50 of 104 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 April 2025 to 22 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Kiniro (GB)J: Jason Watson Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 5/1J
22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sigliosa (GB)J: Jason Watson Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 5/1
22 Oct 26 Ffos Las Trojan Tale (IRE)J: Harry Cobden bettingsites.co.uk Instant Withdrawal Novices' Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran PU 4/1
10 Oct 26 York Grey Soul (IRE)J: Jason Watson Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 20th 50/1
10 Oct 26 York Miss Lady Grace (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 7th 10/1
07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Kiniro (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 1st 6/5F
07 Oct 26 Nottingham Sigliosa (GB)J: Jason Watson Watch Racing Tv Now Handicap Stakes (Div II) (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 14/1
06 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Crazy Plan (GB)J: Mr Sam Burton bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 9/1
22 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Miss Lady Grace (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 18/1
19 Sep 26 Newmarket Kiniro (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Turners Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 9th 18/1
14 Sep 26 Windsor Crazy Plan (GB)J: Rossa Ryan Nsi Fire & Security Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 3/1C
12 Sep 26 Chester Sigliosa (GB)J: Brendan Powell John Smith's Jump Jockeys Challenge Handicap Stakes (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12.5f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 7/1
04 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Kiniro (GB)J: Kaiya Fraser Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 7th 16/1
22 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Crazy Plan (GB)J: Kieren Fox North Downs Hospital Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 5/2
17 Aug 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sigliosa (GB)J: Jason Watson Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 22/1
12 Aug 26 Kempton (AW) Grey Soul (IRE)J: Jason Watson Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 6th 15/2
12 Aug 26 Kempton (AW) Kiniro (GB)J: Billy Loughnane Unibet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 3rd 13/2
11 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Crazy Plan (GB)J: Jason Watson Smarter Gambling Starts At gambling.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 9/1
14 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Crazy Plan (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 13/2
11 Jul 26 York Cruden (GB)J: Rossa Ryan John Smith's Stayers' Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 1st 3/1F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Dan Horsford's strike rate?
Dan Horsford has won 14 of 104 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.5% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Dan Horsford in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Dan Horsford's Fair A/E?
1.10, from 104 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 24 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).