4:08 Naas
The 4:08 Naas is a competitive 5f handicap on soft ground featuring an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Keke heads the numbers with a 60 Fit Score as the selection, closely followed by Bounty on 59, Stag Night on 57, Allsortz on 52 and Unauthorized on 50. With no obvious front-runner in a race that lacks a leader, the shape points to a steadily-run, tactical sprint in which being handy and timing the run will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no one obviously wants the lead, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays. Most of the principals – Keke, Bounty, Stag Night, Allsortz and Gazelle d'Or – are held-up types who produce their effort late, while Unauthorized and Harry's Hill tend to settle in mid-division. The key question is which of the closers can negotiate the steady tempo best and strike at the right moment in what looks set to be a race decided in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Keke KTB Selection60/100
Keke is a useful performer who has won twice from four runs at Naas and holds a strong record at this trip with six wins from 19 starts. He has been in and out this year, reflected in a recent form of 144409, and showed no spark on his only previous soft-ground run. Edward Lynam and Shane Foley combine, both with solid if unspectacular records at the track: the trainer is 11% from 478 runs at Naas with an A/E of 0.91, while the jockey is 10% from 784 rides with an A/E of 0.82. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 6, the six-year-old carries an OR of 93 and is the KTB Selection.
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2Bounty59/100
Bounty is a fair performer who has already won at this track from just two runs here. He has placed once from two starts on soft ground and holds solid course connections, though he has been beaten in all three attempts at this trip. The yard has a respectable 11% strike-rate at Naas with an A/E of 0.91 from 478 runs, while James Ryan sits on a 4% strike rate from 109 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.6. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 3, the four-year-old arrives with recent form of 8094-0 and an OR of 88.
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3Stag Night57/100
Stag Night is a fair performer who has won twice at Naas from five starts and also has a solid record at this trip with four wins from 13 attempts. He acts on soft ground with one win and three places from five runs. W. McCreery and Leigh Roche team up, both recording 7% strike rates at the track from large samples – the trainer 7% from 393 runs with an A/E of 0.71, the jockey 7% from 418 rides with an A/E of 0.88. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 5, the eight-year-old carries an OR of 89 and arrives with recent form of 321500.
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4Allsortz52/100
Allsortz is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts at this trip. He has already shown he handles soft ground, having won his only start on it, and he finished a creditable third when he ran here last season. David Marnane's modest strike-rate at Naas of 6% from 209 runs with an A/E of 0.67 is offset by Luke McAteer's above-average record of 12% from 129 rides with an A/E of 1.12. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 9, the colt carries an OR of 80 and has recent form of 130747.
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5Unauthorized50/100
Unauthorized is a fair sort who has shown mixed form this year with a win over 6f on good ground. He drops back to 5f for the first time since an unsuccessful run at the trip last season while first-time headgear is now applied. Aidan Melia has a 0% strike rate at Naas from a small sample of three runs with an A/E of 0, though the yard's overall trainer-jockey combination reads 25% from 12 runs with an A/E of 1.87 and +£7.00 LSP. Reese Holohan claims 5lb, the jockey recording an 8% strike rate at Naas from 12 rides with an A/E of 0.96. Typically settling in midfield from draw 10, the three-year-old has recent form of -71827 and an OR of 87; he has looked limited on soft ground from one run.
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6Gazelle d'Or49/100
Gazelle d'Or is a fair performer who has placed three times from five runs at Naas including two seconds. He has won three times at this trip from ten attempts and his recent form of 022400 shows he can be competitive at this level. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track while the horse has only run once on soft ground.
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7Bay Of Supremacy48/100
Bay Of Supremacy is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip including once here from just two runs at Naas. He acts on soft ground with two wins and three places from four starts. Recent form has been patchy and the yard and jockey both show below-average strike rates at the track.
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8Cuban Grey41/100
Cuban Grey is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but arrives in modest recent form and was well held when fifth of six over course and distance on his only previous run here. He does handle soft ground well with two wins and three places from four starts. Trainer is 0-19 at Naas while the jockey is operating at a 3% strike rate from 32 rides at the track.
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9Apache Outlaw40/100
Apache Outlaw is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third twice from three runs here. He drops back to 5f today having won at the distance before, though his recent form of 503239 suggests he is vulnerable to sharper types. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate at Naas from 317 runs while the jockey is on 9% from 914 rides.
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10Gerrit's Gem40/100
Gerrit's Gem is a modest performer who has shown the odd flash of ability but remains winless after 21 starts. Has placed once from two runs at Naas and holds a respectable record on soft ground with one win and a placing from three attempts. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here while the drop to an untried 5f poses a fresh question.
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11Harry's Hill39/100
Harry's Hill is a modest performer who has won over this trip eight times from 49 attempts and landed one of his four starts at Naas. Recent form is patchy with a 606210 sequence that includes a win but also plenty of lesser efforts, while he has failed to place in two runs on soft ground. The trainer holds a modest 4% strike rate here from 47 runs and the claiming jockey is yet to score from nine rides at the track.
KTB verdict
Keke is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with two wins from four runs at Naas and a strong record at this trip, he has the class to take this steadily-run affair if he can reproduce his best from his usual held-up position. The selection has solid course-and-distance claims and the Lynam-Foley combination knows the track well. Main dangers are Bounty, who has already won here and acts on soft, Stag Night with his good Naas and soft-ground record, and the progressive 3-year-old Allsortz who handles the ground and has placed here before. Unauthorized with first-time headgear cannot be entirely dismissed if the race falls right.
KTB Selection Keke
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 10 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Bay Of Supremacy | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Gerrit's Gem | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 4:08 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Naas racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Keke the KTB Selection despite his recent form?
Keke is rated the top horse on KTB Fit at 60/100. He is a useful performer with two wins from four runs at Naas and six wins from 19 starts at this trip.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, making it likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horses have the best course records at Naas?
Keke has won twice from four runs, Stag Night twice from five, Bounty once from two, Bay Of Supremacy once from two and Harry's Hill once from four. Gazelle d'Or has placed three times from five, Apache Outlaw twice from three.
Who handles soft ground best among the principals?
Stag Night has one win and three places from five runs on soft, Allsortz has won his only start on soft, and Bounty has placed once from two starts on soft. Keke showed no spark on his only previous soft-ground run and Unauthorized has looked limited on soft from one run.
What is the significance of first-time headgear on Unauthorized?
Unauthorized runs in first-time headgear having shown mixed form this year with a win over 6f. He drops back to 5f for the first time since an unsuccessful run at the trip last season.
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