1:32 Brighton
This Class 6 handicap over the extended five furlongs at Brighton brings together an eleven-strong field of limited handicappers on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Danger Alert just heading Grand Citadel and Rianka, while several others retain place claims on their best efforts at the track. Recent form is mixed across the board and the race looks one where course knowledge and the ability to handle a strong pace could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With two confirmed front-runners in Bonnita and Roman Spring, plus several others who race on the pace, a strong gallop is anticipated and the pace shape carries high confidence. Several principals, including the selection, are habitual hold-up performers who will be looking to come from off the speed once the leaders inevitably tire in the closing stages. The key question is whether the early pace collapses sufficiently to allow the hold-up horses to pick up the pieces, or whether one of the prominent runners can steal it from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Danger Alert KTB Selection65/100
Danger Alert is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and is finding it increasingly difficult to get his head in front. He has shown he can be competitive on good ground, having been placed once from ten starts, and his record at Brighton reads a respectable eighth, fourth and second from three visits without yet winning. Recent form of 496684 suggests he remains vulnerable, yet the combination of Adam Kirby's 30% strike rate at the track from ten runs and Taryn Langley's 26% from 23 rides adds to his claims from stall one. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and the strong pace likely to unfold could play to his strengths as a hold-up horse.
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2Grand Citadel64/100
Grand Citadel is a limited handicapper who has been in and out of form this season, registering a win at a lower level before a poor effort last time. He has shown he can be competitive on good ground, with two places from eleven starts, and at this trip although he is yet to win at either. Dropping in class is a positive and he races from a wide draw of nine, where his usual hold-up style should see him delivered late once the anticipated strong pace begins to tell. The yard has no previous runners at Brighton, but Grace McEntee brings a solid 14% strike rate at the track from 65 rides.
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3Rianka61/100
Rianka is a limited performer who has shown mixed form across her seven starts and looks vulnerable in this company. She did win over today's trip last time out but that came in a weaker race and she has been beaten in both starts since. The three-year-old is yet to show anything on good ground from a single run and has no course form to call upon. Usually held up, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the strong gallop is expected to collapse late. Both trainer Martin Dunne and jockey Saffie Osborne have solid records at Brighton which helps her claims.
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4Unico52/100
Unico is a limited horse who has shown little spark on his last three starts and now steps back up in trip having won at this distance earlier in his career. He has course experience in his favour, having won here from two runs, and the yard and jockey both have solid strike rates at Brighton. Never having run on good ground, that side of his profile remains unproven. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and could be suited by the strong pace that is forecast.
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5Valadero51/100
Valadero is a limited performer who has run creditably at this track, winning once from three starts. Recent form has been patchy but he has shown he can place at today's trip. The trainer has a strong record at Brighton while Tom Marquand also knows the place well, though the horse has failed to place in three runs on good ground. Usually held up, he will be delivered late and the strong pace anticipated could play into his hands if the leaders fold.
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6Big Bard50/100
Big Bard is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts. He does have solid course connections with two wins from seven runs here plus nine wins from 36 starts at today's trip, and he acts on good ground with a win and five places from eight runs. The yard have a respectable 17% strike-rate at Brighton from 126 runs, though the claiming jockey has only one ride at the track so far.
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7Bonnita50/100
Bonnita is a limited performer who has struggled since winning a weak 6f handicap on soft ground last summer. She drops back to her winning trip today and tries first-time headgear, but she has looked out of form on her last three starts and her only run on good ground was poor. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Brighton and she tends to make the running or race prominently.
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8Stock Market50/100
Stock Market is a limited performer who has been placed on four of his last six starts including a second here over this trip. He handles good ground and has shown enough at this level to stay competitive. The trainer has a solid record at the track while the claimer is still building experience here. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace.
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9Mart46/100
Mart is a limited performer who has won once from two runs at Brighton and also has a solid record at today's trip with five wins from 37 starts. He handles good ground and the trainer maintains a respectable 15% strike rate here from 39 runs. Recent form has been patchy and the overall class read remains limited. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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10Roman Spring44/100
Roman Spring is a limited performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins in his last six runs. He has a solid record at Brighton with three course wins from eleven runs and has also won at this trip three times from thirty-three attempts. The yard has a respectable 10% strike-rate at the track while the jockey's 6% from 294 rides is more modest. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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11Bessie Wallis44/100
Bessie Wallis is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest form in 11 starts and looks no better than average for this grade. She drops back to 5f today after a string of ordinary efforts at longer trips and has failed to place in three runs on good ground. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here while the 3lb claimer has a respectable 17% record from a small sample. Usually held up, she produces her effort late.
KTB verdict
Danger Alert is the KTB Selection. A limited horse who has been on the go a long time and is now struggling to win, he has still placed here without winning and has shown he can be competitive on good ground. The strong pace expected should suit his usual hold-up style, and the trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Brighton which helps his claims from stall one. Main dangers are Grand Citadel, who drops in class after a recent win at a lower level and is another who races from off the pace, and Rianka, who won over the trip last time albeit in a weaker race and benefits from the trainer and jockey's solid records at the track. Unico and Valadero add further depth on their best efforts at the course.
KTB Selection Danger Alert
This is the narrative read of the 1:32 Brighton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Brighton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Brighton results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Brighton racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Bonnita tends to make the running or race on the pace while Roman Spring also tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are habitual hold-up performers?
All five principals — Danger Alert, Grand Citadel, Rianka, Unico and Valadero — are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Brighton?
Valadero's trainer has a 40% strike rate at Brighton with an A/E of 2.79 from ten runs.
Who has course wins at Brighton among the field runners?
Big Bard has won here twice from seven runs, Unico has won here from two runs, Mart has won here from two runs, Roman Spring has won here three times from eleven runs, and Stock Market has been placed here once.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Bonnita is trying first-time headgear.
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