4:22 Uttoxeter
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter over 1m7f168y on good ground features a field of ten where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Zenato heads the numbers with a 71 Fit score, closely followed by Adba on 69, Cotton Socks on 68 and Ade Boy on 67, suggesting a competitive race among several with solid recent form and course-relevant trainer stats. The overall picture from the KTB assessments points to a contest that will test stamina late on given the anticipated pace.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Zenato and Nobotheratall, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. This shape could see the leaders go hard early and potentially collapse in the latter stages, which would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Cotton Socks, Ade Boy and Uhtred Ragnarson. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart late to suit those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Zenato KTB Selection71/100
Zenato is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after two wins from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, while his record on good ground reads a respectable three wins from eight runs. The Fergal O'Brien yard has a 17% strike-rate at Uttoxeter from 499 runs with an A/E of 0.95, and the claiming jockey Fern O'Brien fares well at the track with an 18% strike-rate and A/E of 1.29 from 11 rides. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is ideally placed to take advantage of the strong pace shape. His recent form figures of 49115- underline his progressive profile, and at OR 105 he looks a major player.
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2Adba69/100
Adba is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and recent history, with a win on good ground from four attempts. She has already run here once without placing and drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance. The Faye Bramley stable holds a solid 22% strike-rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 1.83 from 18 runs, while jockey Harry Kimber has a 14% record at the track with an A/E of 1.31 from 14 rides. Typically settling in midfield, she should be well placed if the leaders go too hard in what is expected to be a strong pace. Her recent form of 651 and a drop in class to this level add to her appeal at OR 102.
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3Cotton Socks68/100
Cotton Socks is a useful performer who showed progressive form last season and signed off with a win over this trip. Already having a victory on good ground, he looks well placed to build on that record. The Lucy Wadham yard has a 17% strike-rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 1.24 from 121 runs, though jockey Tom Cannon's 10% strike-rate here carries an A/E of 0.69 from 146 rides. As a horse who is usually held up and produces his effort late, he is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses. His recent form figures of 2331- and a drop in class support his chance at OR 104.
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4Ade Boy67/100
Ade Boy is a smart performer who showed useful form when second on return over 2m4f here last month. He drops back to a trip he has already won at from three attempts and the first-time headgear could sharpen him further. Trainer Charlie Longsdon has a 16% strike-rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 0.97 from 329 runs, while Jonathan Burke operates at 18% here with an A/E of 1.16 from 238 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style, he is suited to a race where the pace is expected to be strong and could fold. His recent form of 1634-2 and a drop in class at OR 105 make him a live contender.
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5Uhtred Ragnarson57/100
Uhtred Ragnarson is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form this season and ran well enough over course and distance when fifth here last month. He drops back in trip today having won at this distance before, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. Alan King has a solid 14% strike-rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 0.75 from 400 runs, while Harry Cobden is operating at 15% with an A/E of 0.79 from 124 rides. With high confidence that he will be held up and produce his effort late, he is another who could capitalise if the front-runners go hard and fade. His recent form of F-7352 keeps him competitive at OR 105.
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6Nobotheratall55/100
Nobotheratall is a useful performer who has shown a solid level of form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already won over today's trip and acts on good ground having scored twice from nine starts on it, though the trainer's 10% strike-rate at Uttoxeter from 21 runs and the jockey's 7% from 69 rides are modest.
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7Bryson49/100
Bryson is a useful performer who has been mixing hurdling and chasing without a win this year. He drops back in trip today having looked stretched over 2m1f last time, though he is 0-2 at this distance previously, with the jockey holding a solid 20% strike-rate at Uttoxeter from a big sample.
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8Gaelic Glow49/100
Gaelic Glow is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history yet has failed to place in six completed starts. He showed little at this track on his only visit and now drops back in trip having achieved nothing in four previous runs at this distance, with the first-time headgear an unknown and the yard and jockey both operating at a modest strike-rate here.
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9Holeheartedly48/100
Holeheartedly is useful on his day but has failed to build on an encouraging bumper run and has been well held in three starts over hurdles. He drops back in trip here having looked stretched by 2m4f last time, though he has already been beaten three times at this distance, while the Skelton team are in strong form at Uttoxeter with both trainer and jockey holding solid strike rates at the track.
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10Independent Lady46/100
Independent Lady is a useful performer who showed her best form when winning a 2m4f handicap here in December before running poorly on her latest start. She drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous runs at this distance, with trainer and jockey both having solid records at Uttoxeter and the going looking suitable.
KTB verdict
Zenato stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer in solid form with two wins from his last four starts, he has already won over this distance, boasts a respectable record on good ground and is trained by Fergal O'Brien who holds a strong 17% strike-rate at Uttoxeter. His front-running style aligns well with the strong pace that is anticipated, which could see him dictate matters. The main dangers are likely to come from Adba, who drops in class with good trainer and jockey figures at the track, and Cotton Socks, whose hold-up style could be perfectly suited if the pace collapses late, along with Ade Boy who brings first-time headgear and recent placed form.
KTB Selection Zenato
This is the narrative read of the 4:22 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Uttoxeter results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Uttoxeter racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to benefit from the expected strong pace shape?
Hold-up horses such as Cotton Socks, Ade Boy and Uhtred Ragnarson are favoured if the strong pace collapses late, as indicated by the pace shape and their run-styles.
What is Zenato's record on good ground?
Three wins from eight runs on good ground.
How many wins has Cotton Socks recorded over this trip?
Signed off with a win over this trip last season.
What headgear is Ade Boy wearing for the first time?
First-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike-rate at Uttoxeter among those with significant data?
Dan Skelton has a 23% strike-rate at Uttoxeter from 644 runs.
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