4:27 Navan
The 4:27 at Navan is a 1m6f maiden on yielding ground that features a field of 12, several of whom are stepping up markedly in trip. KTB’s Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 50 and 54, underlining how open the race appears on paper. The KTB numbers highlight fair performers such as First Ascent and Possum alongside lightly raced types and unexposed newcomers, with the strong-pace scenario likely to play a significant part.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners declared. First Ascent, Teofil and Quinta Do Lago are all inclined to race prominently or make the running, which sets up the likelihood of an honest gallop that could become testing in the straight. This shape should favour horses with a held-up or midfield style who can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire late on. The key question is which of the prominent runners can maintain their effort longest or whether the race will fall to a closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Betsy Trotwood54/100
Betsy Trotwood has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last. The trainer holds a 14% strike rate at Navan from seven runs while the 10 lb claimer has only two rides here so the combination remains hard to weigh up. First-time headgear is now fitted as she steps up markedly in trip. She has no experience of yielding ground and no previous form at the course. Her run-style is to settle in midfield though that assessment is based on limited evidence. Overall she remains difficult to fancy on what she has shown to date.
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2First Ascent KTB Selection54/100
First Ascent is a fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts with placed efforts at this level. He drops back from 2m4f to an untried 1m6f today which asks a fresh question while the yard's solid 16% strike rate at Navan offers some encouragement. Only one run on yielding ground so far and this is the first visit to the track. The trainer and jockey combination shows 7 wins from 84 rides at Navan with an A/E of 0.80. His front-running style is likely to see him set or share the pace in a race where the gallop is expected to be strong. Rated 77 he brings the highest official figure in the field.
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3Rose Sienna51/100
Rose Sienna is a lightly raced filly with just two starts and very little to go on. She showed minor promise when sixth last time but was well held on debut and steps up markedly in trip here as an unknown. Trainer has a solid 10% strike-rate at Navan while the jockey's 4% record from a huge sample is more modest. Their combined record stands at 0 wins from 35 rides with an A/E of 0.00. She typically settles in midfield and has had two runs on yielding ground without placing. With so few runs behind her she is very much an unknown quantity at this trip and level.
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4Possum51/100
Possum is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form without winning, finishing no worse than fifth in all four starts. Stall one could prove useful on this step up to 1m6f, a trip he has tried once without success, while the yard and jockey both hold solid records at Navan. The going remains an unknown with so few runs behind him. The trainer and jockey combination has 430 wins from 3478 rides with an A/E of 0.81. His held-up style fits the race shape well given the strong pace expected. Rated 78 he is entitled to be competitive if the longer trip suits.
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5Teofil50/100
Teofil showed fair form when second on his most recent start and has won once from two starts on yielding ground. He drops back from 2m to an untried 1m6f today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Navan from 810 runs while the jockey is operating at 8% from 124 rides here. Their combined record is 28 wins from 182 rides with an A/E of 1.19. As a front-runner he is likely to be prominent early in a race that should be strongly run. He has shown enough on yielding ground to suggest the conditions will suit.
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6Quinta Do Lago49/100
Quinta Do Lago has shown enough in six runs to suggest he is not fully exposed. He has won once from three starts on yielding ground which is a positive, though the drop back from 2m3½f to an untried 1m6f poses a fresh question. The trainer and jockey combination has 20 wins from 259 rides at Navan with an A/E of 0.89. His front-running style means he will be involved in the expected strong pace.
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7Peace Pebble46/100
Peace Pebble is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard has a solid 9% strike rate at Navan from a large sample while jockey W. J. Lee posts an 11% record at the track. With no racecourse form and low data confidence little else can be said with certainty. He has no course win on record.
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8Royal Ballet Blue46/100
Royal Ballet Blue is a fair performer who has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing 6th, 9th and 0 in steadily weaker company. He steps up markedly in trip today to an untested 1m6f which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has only a tiny sample at Navan while Ben Coen has a modest 9% strike rate from 277 rides here. He typically settles in midfield and has no experience of yielding ground.
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9Ginnos Oasis44/100
Ginnos Oasis has shown little in two runs so far, both over much shorter trips. He steps up markedly in distance today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a modest record at Navan while the jockey has a solid 9% strike rate from 43 rides here. Their combined record is 0 wins from 6 rides. He is usually held up and has no experience of yielding ground.
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10Ard Ri Na Heireann44/100
Ard Ri Na Heireann has shown little in three starts so far with a string of duck eggs on the formline. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has only a small sample at Navan while the jockey operates at a steady 8% strike rate here. He is usually held up and has had one run on yielding ground without placing.
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11Tullyhill42/100
Tullyhill has a modest career record and was pulled up on his only previous run at Navan. He has shown some competitiveness on yielding ground with a placed effort from four starts but drops back in trip today to 1m6f having last run over 2m4f so this is an unknown for him. The trainer has only one run at the track while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate from 141 rides here. He typically settles in midfield.
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12Daily Wonder33/100
Daily Wonder is a limited sort who has shown very little in three starts to date. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up markedly in trip, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Navan with a combined 40 wins from 597 rides and an A/E of 0.88. He is usually held up and has no experience of yielding ground.
KTB verdict
First Ascent is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with placed efforts at this level, he brings the highest official rating and a front-running style that should see him prominent in a strongly-run race. The yard’s 16% strike rate at Navan adds further encouragement even though the trip is untried and he has had only one run on yielding ground. Possum and Teofil look the main dangers; Possum is consistent, well drawn and benefits from a hold-up style that suits the expected pace collapse, while Teofil has shown fair form, acts on the ground and will also be forward. The remainder of the field largely consists of lightly raced or modest types with plenty to prove.
KTB Selection First Ascent
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:06 UTC, 21 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Possum | 2/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Teofil | 2/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Quinta Do Lago | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Ard Ri Na Heireann | 150/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:27 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Navan racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
First Ascent, Teofil and Quinta Do Lago are all inclined to race prominently or make the running.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
Strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runner has the highest official rating?
First Ascent is rated 77.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Navan among the principals?
Alan McIntyre has a 14% strike rate at Navan from seven runs with Betsy Trotwood.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Betsy Trotwood and Daily Wonder are both fitted with first-time headgear.
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