5:04 Navan
A large 26-runner Navan handicap over 1m6f on yielding ground brings together a host of limited performers, many of them exposed and without a recent win. The KTB Fit scores are modest across the board, with Theflyingbee heading the numbers on 63 despite a lengthy absence, while the remainder cluster between 54 and 32. Trainer and jockey strike rates at the track are generally modest, and several runners have questions to answer over the trip, on the ground or both.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and the race is likely to be run at a proper gallop. Several horses, including Theflyingbee, Makaiah, Divine Believer, Parish Express, Chestnut Palace, Acanto, Hello Garda, Jazzy Rock, Prom Queen and Jazz Forever, tend to race prominently or on the pace, which should ensure genuine early fractions. That strength of pace could cause the race to collapse in the closing stages and therefore favour those with a held-up run-style such as Goodie Girl, Rio Doce, Omakase, Peace Walk, Lily Parr, Maxwell Smart, Omissions, Charlie Brow'n, Desert Friend, Mephisto, Piatra Neamt and Elzaam Express. The key question is which of the prominent runners can withstand the early pace and still have something left when the sprint for the line begins.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Theflyingbee KTB Selection63/100
Theflyingbee is a limited horse who has shown his best form at Navan, recording two placed efforts from four runs at the track. He drops back from 2m6f to an untried 1m6f while wearing first-time headgear. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.7 from 54 runs, though the trainer and jockey combination shows a 0/11 (0%) record here with an A/E of 0.00. He has been placed twice from three runs on yielding ground and his prominent run-style means he will be on or close to the strong pace. Official rating is 57 and recent form reads 567-.
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2Laser Luck54/100
Laser Luck is a modest performer who has shown little spark across five starts this year. He now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question while remaining unproven on yielding ground. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.42 from 62 runs, though the jockey is still winless from six rides here with an A/E of 0. His run-style is typically mid-division. Official rating is 60 and recent form reads -60555.
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3Makaiah51/100
Makaiah is a limited performer who has won once from three starts at Navan but has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has placed twice at this trip without winning and holds an official rating of 57 that matches that level. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.69 from 73 runs, while the yielding ground remains a question after three runs with no placed effort. His prominent run-style will see him race handily in a race with a strong pace. Recent form reads 0-2070.
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4Divine Believer50/100
Divine Believer is a limited performer who has struggled since early promise, with recent form reading 007787 and no win in nine starts. He drops back in trip to 1m6f today which asks a fresh question while the yielding ground is also unproven. Henry de Bromhead has a 10% strike rate from 411 runs at Navan and William Lee is 11% from 568 rides here with a combined record of 37/259 (14%) and an A/E of 1.05. He will race prominently. Official rating is 59.
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5Goodie Girl49/100
Goodie Girl is a limited performer who has been well beaten on her last three starts and is drawn wide in stall 19. She showed some ability when second here over shorter but that remains her only piece of placed form from 20 runs this year. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.61 from 160 runs and the jockey is 5% from 511 rides here; their combined record is 0/8 (0%). She has been placed once from two runs on yielding ground and her held-up run-style should be suited by the strong pace. Official rating is 57 and recent form reads 889.
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6Rio Doce49/100
Rio Doce has shown little since returning from a long absence and remains a limited performer on the balance of his form. He was well held on his only previous visit to Navan and failed to get involved on yielding ground last time. The step up to an unproven 1m6f adds another unknown for a yard that operates at a 6% strike rate here. Run-style is held up.
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7Parish Express49/100
Parish Express is a limited performer who has struggled in five starts so far and arrives here on the back of two heavy defeats. He drops back to 1m6f with first-time headgear applied while drawn wide in stall 23. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Navan from 810 runs with an A/E of 0.84 and the jockey shows an A/E of 1.02 at the track from an 8% strike rate; their combined record is 28/182 (15%). Run-style is prominent.
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8Omakase48/100
Omakase is a limited performer who has shown some consistency, landing two wins and two places from her last five starts. She has placed on her only previous visit to Navan and returns from a short break, though she is now dropping back in trip to an untried 1m6f. The trainer has a 6% strike-rate at the track from 31 runs while the jockey is still seeking her first winner from 13 rides here, and the mare has shown little on her sole start on yielding ground. Run-style is held up.
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9Chestnut Palace48/100
Chestnut Palace is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in eight starts, most recently finishing a fair fifth over 1m3f. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question, while he is unproven on yielding ground having never raced on it. The yard has a 13% strike rate at Navan from 1814 runs and the jockey matches that modest record. Run-style is prominent.
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10Peace Walk45/100
Peace Walk is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back from 2m1f to a trip he has failed to score at in four previous attempts while his sole run on yielding ground brought no joy. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate here from 43 runs and the jockey is operating at 10% from a big sample. Run-style is held up.
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11Lily Parr45/100
Lily Parr is a limited performer who has been out of the frame in all 13 starts and showed only modest form when seventh last time. She steps up to an untested 1m6f today which asks a fresh question while the yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Navan. She has handled yielding ground but without placing. Run-style is held up.
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12Acanto45/100
Acanto has shown only limited ability in six starts with form of 549343 and is now stepping up in trip to 1m6f for the first time. The move asks a fresh question of a horse that has never won. Trainer Noel Meade has a 13% strike rate from 1814 runs at Navan while jockey Colin Keane posts 14% from 589 rides here. Run-style is prominent.
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13Maxwell Smart44/100
Maxwell Smart is a limited performer who has run ten times at Navan without winning yet has shown enough to place on several occasions. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time having been placed at the trip on four of ten attempts and has also placed twice from five runs on yielding ground. The trainer and jockey both operate at low strike rates here. Run-style is held up.
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14Omissions44/100
Omissions has shown very little in four starts to date and is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Navan from 109 runs. Run-style is held up.
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15Nita43/100
Nita is a limited performer who has shown little in nine starts and was well beaten on her only previous visit to Navan. She steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact over shorter, while first-time headgear is now reached for. The trainer has a 2% strike rate here from 66 runs. Run-style is mid-division.
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16Hello Garda43/100
Hello Garda is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in 11 starts and was beaten 11 lengths when fifth at Down Royal last time. He drops back from 2m to an untried 1m6f while making his first visit to Navan. The trainer has an 8% strike rate here from 145 runs and the jockey is 6% from 196 rides. Run-style is prominent.
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17Jazzy Rock42/100
Jazzy Rock is a limited performer who has shown some ability at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start. He steps up in trip today which looks a fair question given he has been placed once in three runs at this distance, though his recent form is modest. The trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 8% strike rate here. Run-style is front-running.
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18Charlie Brow'n42/100
Charlie Brow'n is a limited performer who has won once here from two runs but is struggling for form this year with a string of poor efforts. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m2f, though he has won at this distance in the past. The trainer's modest record at Navan and the jockey's lack of success here add further negatives. Run-style is held up.
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19Prom Queen41/100
Prom Queen is a limited performer who has shown some ability at this track with a second here last season. She steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m2f yet she has won at 1m6f previously so the distance is not a complete unknown. The trainer operates at a 4% strike rate from 95 runs here while the jockey is 8% from 25 rides. Run-style is front-running.
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20Jazz Forever40/100
Jazz Forever is a limited horse who has been out of the frame in five of his last six starts and looks exposed after 37 runs. He has placed once from six runs at Navan and shown some competitiveness on yielding ground but has never won at either track or trip. The step up to 1m6f today asks a fresh question of a horse that has struggled to make a serious impact lately. Run-style is prominent.
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21Pimlico Piranha39/100
Pimlico Piranha has shown very little in four starts and is rated a limited performer on the balance of his form. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while first-time headgear is also applied. The Brendan W Duke yard has a 0% strike rate from 51 runs at Navan. Run-style is prominent.
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22Desert Friend36/100
Desert Friend is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and rarely threatens these days. He has placed once from five runs at Navan but the trainer is still waiting for a first winner from 37 attempts here and the jockey has yet to score from five rides. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance though his record on yielding ground is poor. Run-style is held up.
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23Mephisto35/100
Mephisto is a limited performer on balance with a string of modest efforts and no win in 50 career starts. He has shown the odd bit of placed form but his three runs at Navan have produced no better than fourth and he is 0-5 on yielding ground. The trainer's 4% strike rate from 302 runs at the track and the jockey's 6% from 464 rides add little encouragement while the drop back from 3m to 1m6f asks a fresh question. Run-style is held up.
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24Thegooseiscooked35/100
Thegooseiscooked is a limited performer who has been placed twice from three runs at Navan but has failed to win in 32 starts this year. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today after racing mainly over shorter, while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at the track adds little confidence. He has never placed on yielding ground from four attempts. Run-style is mid-division.
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25Piatra Neamt35/100
Piatra Neamt is a limited performer who has shown little in 12 runs this year and finished no better than fifth on his last four starts. He has been tried over this trip once without success and steps up again from 1m4f while carrying a 5lb claimer for the first time. The trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here and the horse is 0-4 on yielding ground. Run-style is held up.
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26Elzaam Express32/100
Elzaam Express is a limited horse who has struggled since a modest debut, finishing down the field in four subsequent starts at trips from 1m2f to 1m4f. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today and that trip is an open question. The trainer and jockey both have established but modest records at Navan. Run-style is held up.
KTB verdict
Theflyingbee is the KTB Selection. He has shown his best at this track with two placed efforts from four runs and, while dropping back from 2m6f to an untried 1m6f and wearing headgear for the first time, his prominent run-style should see him well placed in a race with a strong pace. The yard's A/E of 1.7 at Navan suggests some overperformance despite modest strike rates for both trainer and jockey. Main dangers include Goodie Girl, who has placed form here and a held-up style that could be ideal if the pace collapses, and Makaiah, who has won at the track and will also be prominent. Several others have place claims on their best days but look limited overall.
KTB Selection Theflyingbee
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:18 UTC, 21 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Doce | 14/1 | Betfred |
| Omakase | 9/1 | BoyleSports |
| Lily Parr | 8/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Hello Garda | 9/1 | BetMGM |
| Jazzy Rock | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Piatra Neamt | 14/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 5:04 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Navan racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Theflyingbee is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 63/100.
What is the expected pace shape of the race and which run-styles are likely to be favoured?
Strong pace is likely with high confidence due to two or more habitual front-runners. This could cause the race to collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horses are prominent or front-runners likely to set or contest the strong pace?
Theflyingbee, Makaiah, Divine Believer, Parish Express, Chestnut Palace, Acanto, Hello Garda, Jazzy Rock, Prom Queen and Jazz Forever are all prominent or front-running types.
Which horses have course form at Navan and how strong is it?
Theflyingbee has been placed twice from four runs here, Makaiah has won once from three, Goodie Girl has been second once, Omakase has been third once, Maxwell Smart has placed several times from ten runs, Jazzy Rock has been second once from three, Charlie Brow'n has won once from two, Prom Queen has been second once from two, Jazz Forever has been placed once from six, Desert Friend has been placed once from five, Mephisto has been fourth once from three, Thegooseiscooked has been placed twice from three and Piatra Neamt has been sixth once.
Which runners are unproven or have questions on yielding ground?
Laser Luck, Divine Believer, Chestnut Palace, Acanto, Omissions, Nita, Pimlico Piranha and Elzaam Express are unproven on yielding. Several others including Makaiah, Parish Express, Rio Doce, Omakase, Peace Walk, Lily Parr, Hello Garda, Charlie Brow'n, Jazz Forever, Desert Friend, Mephisto, Thegooseiscooked and Piatra Neamt have run on it without placing.
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