1:15 Cheltenham
This Class 3 handicap hurdle at Cheltenham over 2m3f200y on good ground features a competitive field of 13, several of whom arrive in solid recent form. The KTB Fit Scores highlight John Barbour as the top-rated on 73, followed by East India Express on 69, with La Pinsonniere and Handlethekettle both on 64 and Al Gasparo on 61. Official ratings range from 140 down to 112, underlining the depth on show at this venue.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of two or more habitual front-runners, with Handlethekettle and Al Gasparo both tending to make the running or race prominently. East India Express, Morning Mayhem, Sunny South West and Norman Fletcher are also likely to be on or close to the pace, which raises the possibility of the race collapsing late. That scenario would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as La Pinsonniere and Snatch A Glance, making the ability to conserve energy early a key question.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1John Barbour KTB Selection73/100
John Barbour is a high-class performer rated 130 who arrives in solid form having posted figures of 212P1- over the last year. He drops back in trip to a distance at which he has won two of his three starts and has a good record on good ground with three wins from seven runs. The yard's 11% strike rate at Cheltenham from 444 runs sits below their 16% at other tracks while this is the horse's first appearance here. Liam Harrison takes the ride with a 17% strike rate at the course from 35 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to capitalise if the strong pace takes its toll on the leaders.
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2East India Express69/100
East India Express is a high-class performer who has won once from four starts at Cheltenham and holds a strong official rating of 135. He drops back in trip today having last run over 3m1f, with a placed effort from three starts at this distance. The trainer records a 13% strike rate at the track from 1,830 runs, below their 23% at other courses, while the jockey has no supplied record here. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is likely to be prominent in a race expected to be strongly run. Dropping in class looks a positive.
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3La Pinsonniere64/100
La Pinsonniere is a high-class performer with solid placed form at this track and on good ground. Dropping back from 3m to an untried 2m3f poses a fresh question today. The trainer's 13% strike rate at Cheltenham sits below his 23% elsewhere. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses. She has been placed on four of seven starts on good ground and finished second on her only previous run here.
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4Handlethekettle64/100
Handlethekettle is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of two wins and a second from his last four starts. He has won twice over today's trip and holds a strong record on good ground with three wins from five runs. The trainer's 9% strike rate at Cheltenham sits below his 16% at other tracks while this is the horse's first run at the course. Stepping up in class, he tends to make the running or race on the pace and could set a strong gallop that tests the field. Gavin Sheehan rides.
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5Al Gasparo61/100
Al Gasparo is a high-class performer on his day with a string of wins in lesser company and an official rating of 140 to his name. He has shown little at this track though, finishing well down the field on both previous visits, and the trainer's 5% strike rate (1 from 19) at Cheltenham adds to the negatives. The trip suits, with one win from four attempts, but his record on good ground is only modest with a single placing from five starts. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be involved in the strong early tempo.
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6Frontier Prince56/100
Frontier Prince is a high-class performer who has already placed here and won at today's trip on his only attempt. Recent form of 334-01 shows clear improvement on the latest start, though the yard's 11% strike rate at Cheltenham sits below their record elsewhere. Going form reads 1 win from 6 on good ground with three placings. Typically settling in midfield, he steps up in class.
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7Morning Mayhem54/100
Morning Mayhem is a high-class performer with solid recent form including two wins from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to win in two previous tries at this distance and has shown two wins and four places from nine runs on good ground. The trainer has only one run at Cheltenham which is too small a sample to judge while the jockey also has a limited record here. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he drops in class.
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8Can Happen52/100
Can Happen is a smart performer who arrives in decent form after two wins in weaker company this spring. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried, which asks a fresh question, while this will also be his first run at Cheltenham. The trainer has only one run here so far, too small a sample to judge. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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9Cloonainra49/100
Cloonainra is a smart performer who has shown up well around here in the past, finishing fifth and fourth without troubling the judge. He has a win over today's trip on his record but only one placing from six runs on good ground leaves a slight question on conditions. The trainer's 12% strike rate at Cheltenham is above his overall figure. Typically settling in midfield.
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10Crooked Path49/100
Crooked Path is a smart performer who has shown consistent form this year with two wins and two placed efforts from his last five starts. He has already run once at Cheltenham, finishing fifth, while the yard’s 14% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere. He steps up in trip today and is only placed once from four runs on good ground. Typically settling in midfield, he steps up in class.
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11Sunny South West46/100
Sunny South West is a high-class performer who has shown strong form this season with two wins from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having not been asked the question before and makes his first appearance at Cheltenham. The yard has only one run here so far which is too small a sample to judge while he goes well on good ground with two wins and three places from six starts. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
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12Snatch A Glance46/100
Snatch A Glance is a smart performer on the figures with consistent placed efforts in recent starts including a third at this level. The yard’s 11% strike rate at Cheltenham from 444 runs sits below their 16% elsewhere while this is the horse’s first run at the track. Good ground has produced one win and two places from seven starts and today marks an untested step up in trip. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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13Norman Fletcher42/100
Norman Fletcher is a smart performer who has placed at this track without winning and drops back in trip today having been placed twice from three starts at this distance. Recent form of 725322 shows consistency in defeat but he has failed to land a blow in five of his six runs here. The trainer is operating at a 3% strike rate at Cheltenham from 30 runs which is in line with their record at other courses while the jockey has no separate record supplied at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he steps up in class.
KTB verdict
John Barbour stands out as the KTB Selection. A high-class performer rated 130, he comes into the race in solid form and drops back to a trip where he has won two of his three starts, with a strong record on good ground. His ability to settle in midfield should serve him well in a strongly run affair that could see the leaders come back to the field late. The main dangers are East India Express, who has winning form at the course and is dropping in class, and Handlethekettle, who could make the running having won twice over the distance. La Pinsonniere, with her hold-up style and placed course form, is another who could feature if the pace shape unfolds as expected.
KTB Selection John Barbour
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:20am, 23 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| John Barbour | 11/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| East India Express | 6/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| La Pinsonniere | 14/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| Handlethekettle | 14/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| Al Gasparo | 18/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| Frontier Prince | 11/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| Morning Mayhem | 12/1 | 7Bet, 1:18am |
| Can Happen | 22/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| Cloonainra | 35/1 | 7Bet, 1:18am |
| Crooked Path | 5/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| Sunny South West | 4/1 | William Hill, 1:18am |
| Snatch A Glance | 16/1 | Bet Victor, 1:18am |
| Norman Fletcher | 17/2 | William Hill, 1:18am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:15 Cheltenham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cheltenham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cheltenham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Cheltenham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance at Cheltenham?
John Barbour has no course form on record.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Handlethekettle and Al Gasparo both tend to make the running or race on the pace, with East India Express, Morning Mayhem, Sunny South West and Norman Fletcher also likely to race prominently.
Which runner has the highest official rating in the field?
Al Gasparo has an official rating of 140.
Who holds the best trainer strike rate at Cheltenham among the principals?
Nicky Henderson has a 13% strike rate at Cheltenham from 1,830 runs for both East India Express and La Pinsonniere.
Which horse has placed at Cheltenham without winning and is dropping back in trip?
Norman Fletcher has placed at this track without winning and drops back in trip today having been placed twice from three starts at this distance.
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