3:19 Doncaster
This Class 3 handicap over a mile at Doncaster on heavy ground brings together an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but not impossible puzzle. The principals are headed by Godwinson on a mark of 96, with Cavolo Nero, Mr Professor, On The River and Anyasi all closely matched on figures and each dropping in class. Overall the KTB numbers suggest a race that will be decided by how the prominent runners handle the genuine pace and whether the hold-up types can land a blow on this testing surface.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely run pace shape of high confidence, River King is expected to take them along from the front and will be pressed by several handy types including Mr Professor, Anyasi, Shipbourne, Lir Speciale and Desperate Dan. This should set up a fair test with the race likely to be won from mid to late in the straight. The key question is whether the hold-up performers such as Godwinson and Cavolo Nero can weave their way through traffic once the front-runners come back to them on the heavy ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Godwinson KTB Selection64/100
Godwinson is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Doncaster and has scored three times at this trip from 13 attempts. He arrives on the back of a string of poor efforts and remains unproven on heavy ground. The six-year-old is dropping in class from an official rating of 96 and is usually held up, producing his effort late. Trainer Jack Channon and jockey Cieren Fallon both operate at a 15% and 14% strike rate here respectively, figures in line with their records elsewhere. A course-and-distance winner who must bounce back from his recent 00-000 form, he is the KTB Selection.
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2Cavolo Nero61/100
Cavolo Nero is a useful performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last four starts. He has already shown he handles this trip and the yard’s 19% strike rate at Doncaster is in line with their record elsewhere. The four-year-old is dropping in class from an OR of 92, with recent form figures of 234119 underlining his consistency. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has only one run on heavy ground so far which leaves the surface as something of an unknown. Oisin Murphy teams up with the Harry Eustace-trained colt from draw one.
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3Mr Professor57/100
Mr Professor is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at this track and has scored four times from 20 starts at this trip. He arrives in reasonable form with a recent fifth and second, though he is unproven on heavy ground having never run on it. The seven-year-old is dropping in class from an OR of 86 and usually races prominently, on or close to the lead. Trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy and jockey Rowan Scott both operate at their usual level here with 14% and 9% strike rates respectively. A previous course winner from draw six, his 56-625 recent form gives him a solid platform.
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4On The River57/100
On The River is a fair performer who has placed on two of three starts at Doncaster and holds an official rating of 78. Has won nine times at this trip from 44 attempts and holds a solid record on heavy ground with two wins and five places from seven runs. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, though with medium confidence in that assessment. Trainer Harriet Bethell has a 19% strike rate here from 26 runs, in line with her record elsewhere. His course form reads 5th, 2nd and 9th while recent figures of 753272 show continued competitiveness.
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5Anyasi57/100
Anyasi is a useful performer who has won two of his five starts and finished a solid second last time out. The three-year-old steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question and the dam has had one other runner, not a winner. Usually races prominently, on or close to the lead with medium confidence, he is dropping in class from an OR of 92. Trainer Roger Varian operates at a 23% strike rate here which is above his 19% at other tracks. Recent form of 3-1152 and a lack of heavy-ground experience are the main points to weigh up from draw eight.
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6River King55/100
River King is a useful performer who has run well in defeat over 7f at this track on both visits. Steps up to 1m today having already won at the trip earlier in his career. Connections are in line with their usual record at Doncaster and the heavy ground remains unproven.
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7Shipbourne55/100
Shipbourne is a useful performer who has already won both here and at this trip. The recent form of 3-1091 shows a clear ability to bounce back quickly after a poor run, and being a full brother to Listed winner Task Force adds some pedigree depth. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level around Doncaster while the wide draw in a small field is simply where he is positioned.
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8Lir Speciale52/100
Lir Speciale is a fair performer who has won three of his four starts at Doncaster and holds a solid record on heavy ground with two wins from three starts. He is placed at this trip without winning and now tries headgear for the first time after a string of modest efforts. The trainer's 7% strike rate at the track is below his overall figure while the jockey's 21% strike rate here is in line with his record elsewhere.
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9Andesite50/100
Andesite is a fair performer who has been in and out lately with two wins in his last six starts but was well held on his only previous run here. He acts on heavy ground having won his only start on it and has been placed at this trip though he is stepping back up from 6f today. The trainer's 12% strike rate at Doncaster is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track from 159 rides.
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10Desperate Dan48/100
Desperate Dan is a fair performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. He has shown useful form on heavy ground with two wins and three places from six starts. First-time headgear is now added after a string of modest recent efforts.
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11Monoceros46/100
Monoceros is a fair performer who has won once over this trip from seven attempts. Has shown little on heavy ground in two starts and makes his first appearance at Doncaster today. Trainer and jockey both record strike rates here that sit in line with their figures at other tracks.
KTB verdict
Godwinson is the KTB Selection in a race that looks sure to be run at a genuine gallop on heavy ground. The selection is a useful performer with a fine record at the trip and a previous course win to his name, and the drop in class plus the late-run style could prove ideally suited if the prominent horses go hard early. Cavolo Nero, in solid form and with the assistance of Oisin Murphy, is the most obvious danger, while Mr Professor, On The River and the progressive-looking Anyasi all have claims if the ground does not find them out. The pace shape should ensure the race is a proper test and the principals look to hold the aces.
KTB Selection Godwinson
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Godwinson | 11/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Cavolo Nero | 11/1 | Midnite, 1:04am |
| Mr Professor | 16/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| On The River | 10/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Anyasi | 4/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| River King | 5/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Shipbourne | 9/2 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Lir Speciale | 4/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Andesite | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| Desperate Dan | 10/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| Monoceros | 20/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:19 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on heavy ground yet has a course win to its name?
Godwinson, who won on his only previous visit to Doncaster but has no runs on heavy.
What is the trainer and jockey combined strike rate at Doncaster for the second-highest rated horse on KTB Fit?
Harry Eustace and Oisin Murphy combine at 3/10 (30%) as shown on the card.
Which runner is a full brother to a Listed winner and has already won both at Doncaster and over today's trip?
Shipbourne, full brother to Task Force, a Listed winner (2 wins from 8 runs).
How many wins has Lir Speciale recorded at Doncaster and what new factor is applied today?
Three wins from four starts at Doncaster; first-time headgear.
Which horse steps back up in trip from 6f having won its only start on heavy ground?
Andesite, who is stepping back up from 6f today.
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