2:17 Galway
The Colm Quinn BMW Mares Maiden Hurdle at Galway over 2m0f11y on yielding to soft ground brings together a field of ten with plenty of unknowns. The KTB Fit Scores point to Light Up The Dark as the clear top pick on 66, followed by Holly's Thunder on 59, with the remainder of the field tightly bunched between 54 and 33. Recent form is mixed and several runners arrive with limited experience or questions to answer on the ground and trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with no obvious front-runner, which should play to those who can settle close to the pace. Most of the principals, including the selection, Holly's Thunder and Simply Natural, tend to race in mid-division, while Darby Hill and Cool As A Cat are usually held up. Sanctity Of Space and The Two Mary's are more likely to race prominently, raising the key question of whether the race will be won from a handy position or if the closers can time their efforts in a tactical affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Light Up The Dark KTB Selection66/100
Light Up The Dark arrives with strong bumper form, having won both starts last year including over today's trip. He has shown placed form over hurdles at Galway without managing to win, and his sole run on yielding to soft brought no joy. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard operates at an 11% strike rate at Galway which is in line with their record elsewhere, while Harry Cobden has a 17% strike rate at the track from 12 rides. Typically settling in midfield, this 5-year-old has the best KTB Fit Score in the field at 66 and is the selection. The break since his last run adds an element of caution but his bumper wins provide a solid base.
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2Holly's Thunder59/100
Holly's Thunder showed fair promise when third on debut over 2m3f and now drops back in trip, which asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced 5-year-old. She is a half-sister to Don Poli, a Grade 1 winner who scored eight times from 26 runs, and the dam has had ten other runners of which seven were winners. The Mrs Lorna Fowler yard has a 33% strike rate at Galway from just six runs, though John Shinnick is yet to score from 15 rides at the track. With a KTB Fit Score of 59 she is the second highest rated and her pedigree offers considerable encouragement despite being unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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3Simply Natural54/100
Simply Natural is a smart performer who has been knocking on the door this season with four placed efforts from six starts, including a second at this track. She drops back to 2m having been placed at the trip earlier without winning and holds an official rating of 112. Gavin Cromwell has a 7% strike rate at Galway from 388 runs which sits below his 10% at other courses, while Keith Donoghue has a 9% strike rate at the track from 165 rides in line with his record elsewhere. She has been placed once from one run on yielding to soft and typically settles in midfield. Her consistency makes her a solid contender on 54 KTB Fit.
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4Darby Hill52/100
Darby Hill is lightly raced with just two runs in the last year and an official rating yet to be published, so this has to be read with caution. Her recent form of 410-6 shows a win on debut but she has been beaten since and the trip has not produced a success so far. Paul Nolan has a 7% strike rate at Galway from 212 runs in line with their record elsewhere, while claiming jockey Eoin Staples has struck at 17% from 18 rides here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is rated 52 on KTB Fit and remains open to improvement as a 5-year-old.
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5Cool As A Cat49/100
Cool As A Cat has shown little in three starts at this trip, finishing well beaten on his latest completed outing. The Tom Dreaper yard has only four runs at Galway so the small sample prevents any firm view of their record here, though Patrick M O'Brien holds a 13% strike rate at the track from 23 rides in line with his overall figure. Usually held up, this 6-year-old has a KTB Fit Score of 49. He has one run on yielding to soft that brought no win or place and his overall form leaves him with plenty to prove.
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6Esteio46/100
Esteio is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The half-sister to Grangeclare Diego and the dam's record of two winners from three other runners offer some pedigree encouragement, while trainer Thomas Cooper has a 7% strike rate at Galway from 127 runs in line with his overall record.
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7Liath Mor43/100
Liath Mor has only one career run and showed nothing of note at this trip. Gavin Cromwell has a 7% strike rate at Galway from 388 runs which is below their 10% at other tracks, and with such a small sample the dam's record of one non-winner offers no help either.
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8Sanctity Of Space40/100
Sanctity Of Space has shown some ability on this track with a fourth here last time but also finished seventh on his previous visit and remains winless. He drops back in trip today having been placed once at 2m without winning, and John McConnell operates at a 4% strike rate here from 243 runs.
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9Elite Ocean40/100
Elite Ocean has very little racecourse evidence to go on after just one run in the last year and a pulled-up effort on hurdling debut. The dam has produced two other non-winners so the pedigree offers no encouragement, and Thomas Cooper operates at a 7% strike rate at Galway from 127 runs in line with his overall record.
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10The Two Mary's33/100
The Two Mary's is lightly raced with just three runs and a recent form line of FP-D06 that offers little encouragement. She has been beaten a long way on each completed start including when fourth of five here last time, and John Joseph Hanlon records a 5% strike rate at Galway from 355 runs.
KTB verdict
Light Up The Dark is the KTB Selection. He brings the best bumper form into the race, has already shown placed form over hurdles at Galway, and tops the KTB Fit Scores on 66. The muddling tactical pace should suit his mid-division run-style, and the Joseph Patrick O'Brien/Harry Cobden combination adds further appeal. Main dangers are Holly's Thunder, whose strong pedigree and promising debut give her every chance if the drop in trip suits, and Simply Natural, whose consistency and official rating of 112 make her a persistent threat.
KTB Selection Light Up The Dark
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 5:00am, 25 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Light Up The Dark | 5/6 | Bet365, 1:39am |
| Holly's Thunder | 11/2 | Midnite, 2:27am |
| Simply Natural | 13/8 | Midnite, 2:27am |
| Darby Hill | 33/1 | LiveScore Bet, 5:00am |
| Cool As A Cat | 125/1 | Midnite, 2:27am |
| Esteio | 10/1 | QuinnBet, 2:27am |
| Liath Mor | 80/1 | LiveScore Bet, 5:00am |
| Sanctity Of Space | 18/1 | QuinnBet, 3:36am |
| Elite Ocean | 40/1 | LiveScore Bet, 5:00am |
| The Two Mary's | 40/1 | LiveScore Bet, 5:00am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:17 Galway. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Galway racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Galway results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Galway racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest pedigree in the race?
Holly's Thunder, a half-sister to Don Poli, a Grade 1 winner with 8 wins from 26 runs. The dam has had 10 other runners, 7 of them winners.
How many runners have previous placed form at Galway?
Light Up The Dark has been placed here, Simply Natural has a second at this track, Sanctity Of Space has a fourth here, and The Two Mary's was fourth of five here last time.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Galway among those represented?
Mrs Lorna Fowler has a 33% strike rate at Galway from 6 runs.
Who are the most prominent runners in the expected pace shape?
Sanctity Of Space and The Two Mary's are the most likely to race prominently, while the principals are mainly mid-division or held up.
Which horses are proven on yielding to soft ground?
Light Up The Dark, Simply Natural and Cool As A Cat have all run on yielding to soft, while the remainder are unproven on the surface.
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