1:55 Redcar
This Class 3 novice stakes over 1m2f1y at Redcar on soft ground brings together an 11-runner field mixing debutants, lightly-raced types and a few with more experience. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly grouped across the top half of the field, with Duke Of Ormonde heading the list on 57 despite being a first-time runner, followed closely by Merci Monsieur on 55 and Wadacre Icon on 53. Overall the numbers point to a race where yard and jockey course records carry extra weight given the limited form on show, while the strong pace anticipated adds another layer to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses. Merci Monsieur and Wadacre Icon both tend to make the running or race prominently, while Nascondino and Rowlf like to race handily. The key question is whether the early speed will prove too taxing on this soft surface, potentially handing an advantage to those who can be produced late such as the selection from a wide draw.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Duke Of Ormonde KTB Selection57/100
Duke Of Ormonde is a debutant with a limited pedigree to go on, though he is a half-brother to a quick winner and from a dam who has produced two winners from two runners to race. The David O'Meara yard posts a 15% strike rate at Redcar from 786 runs, above their 12% elsewhere, while Mark Winn has a 20% strike rate here from 75 rides, also above his 10% at other tracks. By Siyouni, he carries a 13% overall win rate on this type of going. Data confidence is low so this assessment remains tentative, yet the trainer and jockey course figures mark him out as the KTB Selection in a race where experience is thin on the ground.
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2Merci Monsieur55/100
Merci Monsieur showed fair form when third on debut over 1m before finishing fifth next time. He steps up in trip today to 1m2f which is a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here but the small sample means the assessment is tentative. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is dropping in class and will ensure the strong gallop that the race shape predicts. With only one run on soft ground and no win or place on it, the surface adds a further unknown.
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3Wadacre Icon53/100
Wadacre Icon has shown fair form in two runs so far, finishing second then fourth without looking a world-beater. He now drops back in trip to an untried 1m2f on soft ground where the small sample makes going suitability unknown. The trainer's 13% strike rate at Redcar is in line with their record elsewhere and the jockey's 14% at the track matches his wider figure. Like Merci Monsieur he tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be right up there early in what is set to be a strong gallop. A half-brother to General Hazard who won six times from 17 runs, he brings a solid family line.
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4Gallus Millie51/100
Gallus Millie is a debutant with a limited pedigree to go on. Half-sister to a modest three-time winner and out of a dam who has produced only one winner from four other runners. Trainer Simon Waugh has a 9% strike rate at Redcar from 11 runs while Amie Waugh is yet to record a winner here. By Passing Glance, she carries a 12% overall win rate on this sort of going. The yard and rider combination at the track is modest and she will need to be sharp on debut in a race featuring several runners with racecourse experience.
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5Nascondino47/100
Nascondino has shown fair form in three runs this year, finishing a solid second on his latest start. He steps up in trip today to 1m2f for the first time which asks a fresh question. The trainer has only three runs at Redcar while the jockey has a 14% strike rate here in line with his record elsewhere. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, he will be involved in the forward action in a race with a strong pace likely. Stepping up in class off an official rating of 79, he brings the highest figure in the field.
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6Rowlf46/100
Rowlf has only one run behind him and finished a modest fourth on debut so the form is hard to weigh up. The yard has a 25% strike rate at Redcar from 230 runs which is above their general mark while James Doyle sits on a 21% strike rate here from 38 rides in line with his record elsewhere. A half-brother to a modest winner he is being asked a fresh question dropped back in trip on soft ground with only a tiny sample to go on.
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7The Resdev Tyke43/100
The Resdev Tyke is a half-brother to a prolific winner and showed ability when winning on soft ground from four attempts. He drops back from 2m to an untried 1m2f trip today which asks a fresh question. The Easterbys have a 5% strike rate at Redcar from 169 runs in line with their record elsewhere while Joanna Mason operates at 10% here from 167 rides also in line with her wider figures.
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8Corallience41/100
Corallience is a modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut sixth and looks limited on recent evidence. He drops back in trip today having been well held over 1m3f last time and has shown nothing at 1m2f in two previous attempts. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 10 runs at Redcar while the jockey operates at an 11% strike rate here in line with his record elsewhere.
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9Guthrum40/100
Guthrum has shown very little in two starts this year and now tries headgear for the first time while dropping back in trip. The yard's 0% strike rate from 27 runs at Redcar sits in line with their overall record. Data confidence is low so this lightly raced profile should be read with caution.
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10Eagleonthebalcony33/100
Eagleonthebalcony has a single career run behind him and steps up from 1m to an untried 1m2f trip today. The dam has produced two other runners without a win between them. Trainer Jim Goldie has an 8% strike rate at Redcar from 384 runs in line with his record elsewhere while jockey Paul Mulrennan sits on 9% from 869 rides here which is also in line with his wider figure.
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11Sergeeva32/100
Sergeeva has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh on her only run here at Redcar. She steps up markedly in trip today to 1m2f, which is an entirely fresh question. A half-sister to Listed winner Enlighted, she remains lightly raced with low data confidence.
KTB verdict
Duke Of Ormonde is the KTB Selection. Although a debutant with only a limited pedigree to go on, the combination of the O'Meara yard's healthy 15% strike rate at Redcar and Mark Winn's 20% record at the track stands out in a race short on solid form. The strong pace anticipated should suit a horse that can be ridden for a late burst from his wide draw. Main dangers are Merci Monsieur and Wadacre Icon who will both be prominent and set the fractions, along with Nascondino who brings the highest official rating and showed a solid second last time.
KTB Selection Duke Of Ormonde
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:29am, 26 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Duke Of Ormonde | 10/1 | William Hill, 12:25am |
| Merci Monsieur | 11/4 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Wadacre Icon | 5/1 | 7Bet, 12:25am |
| Gallus Millie | 66/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Nascondino | 5/2 | William Hill, 12:25am |
| Rowlf | 11/4 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| The Resdev Tyke | 10/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Corallience | 30/1 | 7Bet, 12:25am |
| Guthrum | 150/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Eagleonthebalcony | 100/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
| Sergeeva | 150/1 | Bet365, 12:25am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are expected to set a strong pace?
Merci Monsieur and Wadacre Icon both tend to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, while Nascondino and Rowlf like to race prominently.
How many runs has Duke Of Ormonde had?
Duke Of Ormonde is a debutant with no previous runs.
Who has the highest official rating in the field?
Nascondino has an official rating of 79.
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Guthrum is trying first-time headgear.
What is the trainer strike rate at Redcar for the yard of the selection?
David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at Redcar from 786 runs.
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