4:15 Kempton (AW)
This Class 6 apprentice handicap over 6f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together an even field of eleven modest performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 49 and 38, reflecting a race where little separates the runners on paper and where recent consistency, course experience and the ability to handle the surface will be key. Lazzar and King Cherry share the highest Fit rating of 49, with Insuspense, Shielas Well and Lion Ring completing the principals in a contest shaped by the prospect of a strong pace.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, a strong pace is likely and the early fractions could be testing. King Cherry, Shielas Well, Marianne Mozart and others are all inclined to race prominently or on the lead, while several hold-up performers wait to pounce if the pace collapses. The key question is whether the leaders will fold late, handing the advantage to those coming from off the pace in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lazzar KTB Selection49/100
Lazzar is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at this track and once from two on standard to slow ground. He has also won at today's trip from 18 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having shown consistent placings in recent runs. The four-year-old drops in class from a mark of 61, is drawn in stall 8 and is usually held up, producing his effort late. Charlie Wallis has a 4% strike rate at Kempton from 139 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while Donagh Murphy rides with a 12% strike rate at the track from 17 rides. Lazzar is the KTB selection.
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2King Cherry49/100
King Cherry is a limited class performer who has won once here from two runs at the track. His recent form is mixed but includes a C&D success, though he has failed to place in his only try on standard to slow ground. The three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and is drawn widest in stall 11 from an official rating of 59. Stuart Williams records a 12% strike rate at Kempton from 932 runs that sits in line with his overall figure, while Taryn Langley is operating at 7% here from 27 rides.
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3Insuspense48/100
Insuspense is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed little when ninth on his only previous visit here. He has won at this trip but has failed to place in his one run on standard to slow ground. Dropping in class from an OR of 65, the four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Ross Burdon's 7% strike rate at Kempton from 27 runs is in line with his record elsewhere while Alexandra Egan remains winless from ten rides at the track.
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4Shielas Well47/100
Shielas Well is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level in recent starts without threatening to win. He drops back from a mile to 6f today having failed to place in two previous tries at the distance and makes a first appearance at Kempton from an official rating of 50. The four-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and has won his only start on standard to slow ground. Ian Williams records a 10% strike rate here from 632 runs while Toby Moore operates at 17% at the track from 23 rides.
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5Lion Ring46/100
Lion Ring is a limited performer who has been running to form without threatening lately. He has won at this trip but has shown little on his two visits to Kempton and holds no wins or places from four runs on standard to slow ground. The eight-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence in that style and is drawn in stall 3 from an OR of 47. Andrew Martin has only four runs here which is too small a sample to judge while Owen Lewis operates at a 14% strike rate from 36 rides at the track.
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6Marianne Mozart45/100
Marianne Mozart is a modest performer who has shown little since a promising start, finishing no better than fifth on her five starts this year. She has one run at Kempton where she finished fifth, the trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 15 runs while the jockey is 0-14 at the track, the trip has not brought any success in four attempts and the small sample on this surface leaves her suitability open to question.
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7Marra Donna44/100
Marra Donna is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks up against it from an official rating of 56. She steps up to 6f for the first time in a while having been placed at the trip without winning, the trainer's 8% strike rate at Kempton is in line with his record elsewhere and the jockey is still seeking a first course winner from eight rides.
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8Shaws Phoenix41/100
Shaws Phoenix is a limited performer who has shown little in three runs this year and arrives with an official rating of 48. He has run only once at Kempton, finishing seventh, his sole start on standard to slow going also brought no win or place, the trainer records an 8% strike rate here from 1,931 runs while the jockey is on 8% from 24 rides, both in line with their figures at other tracks, and he drops back to a trip where he has placed once in two starts.
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9Henry Tudor41/100
Henry Tudor is a limited performer who has shown his best at this track with a placing from two runs here. He has a win on his record at today's trip but recent form has been modest and he is 0-11 on this surface overall, the trainer's 3% strike rate at Kempton is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey is yet to score from 22 rides at the track.
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10Balon d'Or38/100
Balon d'Or is limited on official ratings and with a recent form line that has gone nowhere since a Kempton win in March. He drops back to his winning trip having looked one-paced over 7f last time, the yard's 8% strike rate at this track is in line with their record elsewhere, the jockey is still seeking a first Kempton winner from 11 rides and the horse has shown little on this surface in one previous run.
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11Shining Guest38/100
Shining Guest is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in six starts and looks up against it from a career-low mark. She steps up to 6f today having failed to place in four previous runs at the trip, the small sample on this surface leaves going suitability unknown and half-sister to Basil Martini, a Group 3 winner. Trainer and jockey both record strike rates at Kempton that sit in line with their figures elsewhere.
KTB verdict
Lazzar is the KTB selection in a race where the strong pace could play into the hands of hold-up horses. He has already won at this track and on the surface, arrives in consistent form with placings in recent runs and is dropping in class from an official rating of 61. The four-year-old's late run-style should suit if the front-runners go hard early. His main dangers are King Cherry, who has C&D form and likes to lead, and Insuspense, who shares the hold-up profile and is also dropping in class, while Shielas Well and Lion Ring add further depth to an open-looking contest.
KTB Selection Lazzar
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:23am, 28 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Lazzar | 3/1 | William Hill, 12:21am |
| King Cherry | 5/1 | Bet365, 12:21am |
| Insuspense | 5/2 | Bet Victor, 12:21am |
| Shielas Well | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:21am |
| Lion Ring | 20/1 | William Hill, 12:21am |
| Marianne Mozart | 6/1 | Bet365, 12:21am |
| Marra Donna | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:21am |
| Shaws Phoenix | 33/1 | Bet365, 12:21am |
| Henry Tudor | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:21am |
| Balon d'Or | 40/1 | Bet365, 12:21am |
| Shining Guest | 28/1 | Bet Victor, 12:21am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
King Cherry, Shielas Well and Marianne Mozart all tend to make the running or race on the pace, with Henry Tudor, Marra Donna and Shining Guest also inclined to race prominently.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could cause the leaders to collapse late and hand the advantage to those producing their effort from off the pace.
How many wins has Lazzar recorded at Kempton?
Lazzar has won once from two starts at this track.
Which principal has never won or placed on standard to slow ground?
Insuspense has failed to place in his one run on standard to slow ground.
What is the family note for Shining Guest?
Half-sister to Basil Martini, a Group 3 winner (1 win from 7 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 3 of them winners.
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