1:16 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Nottingham on heavy ground brings together a field of ten where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The selection, Rambuso Creek, tops the KTB rankings with a score of 62 while the next four principals sit between 55 and 58. With a strong pace predicted and several runners who like to race prominently or on the lead, the race is likely to place a premium on getting the right position early and seeing it out on this testing surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with high confidence, featuring two or more habitual front-runners which should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the closing stages. Level Up and Loco Lobo are the most forward-going types while Edgewater Drive, Vince L'Amour and Dragon Spin tend to race prominently. This setup should favour those who can settle in midfield or are held up, allowing them to pick up the pieces if the leaders fold late, making the ability to conserve energy early a key question in the race.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rambuso Creek KTB Selection62/100
Rambuso Creek is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit scores on 62. A 7-year-old with an official rating of 56, he arrives in solid form having recorded figures of 515417 and boasts a good course record with two wins from three starts at Nottingham. The Michael Herrington yard has a 17% strike rate at the track from 30 runs while Joanna Mason takes the ride despite an 8% strike rate at the venue from 91 rides. He typically settles in midfield, a run-style that could prove ideal given the anticipated strong pace. Although stepping up in class and with no win or place from two runs on heavy ground, his course prowess and recent competitiveness mark him down as the one to beat.
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2Alnofoor58/100
Alnoor comes into this with a KTB Fit score of 58 and an official rating of 54. The 8-year-old has shown glimpses of ability with recent form figures of 113804 and has a strong going record with one win from one run on heavy, where he has also placed. He tends to settle in midfield, which should suit the expected pace collapse late on. Claire O'Connell's overall strike rate stands at 3% from 77 runs with no Nottingham record, but Ray Dawson is a positive in the saddle boasting a 16% strike rate at the track from 117 rides. He has no course form on record but his heavy-ground prowess makes him an interesting contender.
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3Edgewater Drive57/100
Edgewater Drive is rated 57 on the KTB Fit scale and carries an official rating of 59. The 5-year-old has recent form figures of 18-006 and has won here on his sole previous start at Nottingham. Wilf Storey has an excellent 45% strike rate at the track from just 11 runs while Alex Jary claims 3lb with a 10% strike rate at Nottingham from 41 rides. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, his run-style could leave him vulnerable if the strong pace tells late. He has no win or place from two runs on heavy ground, yet his course success and trainer's record at the venue demand respect.
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4Level Up55/100
Level Up has a KTB Fit score of 55 and an official rating of 68. The 7-year-old has shown consistent form with figures of 671863 and tends to make the running or race prominently, a style that will be tested by the strong pace expected here. David Evans has a 10% strike rate at Nottingham from 502 runs though the yard's record when teaming up with Amy Tucker is 0% from 13 rides. He has no win or place from two runs on heavy and finished second on his only previous visit to Nottingham. While he carries the highest weight in the field, his front-running nature could see him set the race up if he can dictate terms early.
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5Duran55/100
Duran is rated 55 on the KTB Fit scale with an official rating of 70. The 5-year-old has recent form figures of 000784 and has shown competitiveness on heavy ground with one place from three runs. Nigel Tinkler's record at Nottingham stands at 8% from 468 runs while Rowan Scott has an 8% strike rate there from 63 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, which aligns well with the strong pace shape that could collapse. He has placed on two of his three starts at the course without winning and his ability to come from off the pace could prove valuable if the leaders go too hard.
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6Run This Way52/100
Run This Way has a KTB Fit score of 52 and an official rating of 58. The 8-year-old has recent form figures of 336265, is usually held up, and has placed once from three runs on heavy. Paul Midgley has a 13% strike rate at Nottingham from 226 runs while Kieran O'Neill is on board with a 5% record at the track from 147 rides. He is stepping up in class and finished fourth on his only previous start here.
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7Vince L'Amour52/100
Vince L'Amour carries a KTB Fit score of 52 and an official rating of 66. The 5-year-old has recent form of 208684, races prominently, and has a strong heavy-ground record with one win and two places from three starts. Tim Easterby has a 9% strike rate at Nottingham from 624 runs and David Allan has a 10% record at the venue from 282 rides. He is dropping in class but has no course form on record.
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8Campenaerts52/100
Campenaerts is rated 52 on the KTB Fit scale with an official rating of 68. The 3-year-old has recent form figures of 697824 and is usually held up. Jonathan Portman has a 5% strike rate at Nottingham from 146 runs while Rob Hornby boasts a 15% record there from 197 rides. He has no runs on heavy ground and no course form.
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9Dragon Spin50/100
Dragon Spin has a KTB Fit score of 50 and an official rating of 63. The 3-year-old has recent form of 140536, races prominently, and has won here once from two starts at Nottingham. Steph Hollinshead has an 18% strike rate when teaming up with Clifford Lee but the yard's record at the track is 5% from 79 runs. He has no experience of heavy ground.
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10Loco Lobo44/100
Loco Lobo is rated 44 on the KTB Fit scale with an official rating of 44. The 8-year-old has recent form figures of 20/3-5, tends to make the running, and has no win or place from one run on heavy. Lisa Williamson has a 7% strike rate at Nottingham from 69 runs while Connor Planas has a 5% record at the venue from 20 rides. He is stepping up in class and has no course form.
KTB verdict
Rambuso Creek is the KTB Selection and sets the standard on a Fit score of 62 allied to a strong course record of two wins from three starts at Nottingham. His ability to settle in midfield looks well suited to a race where the strong pace is expected to take its toll late on, and he arrives in good heart. The main dangers are likely to come from those who can also benefit from a strong pace, with Duran well positioned to come from off the pace on heavy ground where he has shown competitiveness, while Alnofoor brings proven ability on the surface and Edgewater Drive cannot be dismissed given his course win and the trainer's excellent strike rate at the venue.
KTB Selection Rambuso Creek
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:31am, 28 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Rambuso Creek | 15/2 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Alnofoor | 3/1 | 7Bet, 12:16am |
| Edgewater Drive | 11/1 | 7Bet, 12:16am |
| Level Up | 15/2 | Midnite, 12:16am |
| Duran | 3/1 | Bet365, 12:16am |
| Run This Way | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:16am |
| Vince L'Amour | 9/1 | Dragon Bet, 12:16am |
| Campenaerts | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:16am |
| Dragon Spin | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:16am |
| Loco Lobo | 33/1 | Bet365, 12:16am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:16 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Nottingham?
Rambuso Creek has won two of his three starts at the track.
How does the strong pace shape affect the race?
The strong pace with multiple front-runners could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses and those settled in midfield.
Which runners are proven on heavy ground?
Alnofoor has won his only start on heavy, Vince L'Amour has one win and two places from three runs on heavy, Duran has placed once from three runs on heavy, Run This Way has placed once from three runs on heavy, while Rambuso Creek, Edgewater Drive, Level Up and Loco Lobo are unproven or without a win or place on the surface.
Who are the most forward-going runners likely to set the pace?
Level Up and Loco Lobo tend to make the running while Edgewater Drive, Vince L'Amour and Dragon Spin usually race prominently.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham in this field?
Wilf Storey has a 45% strike rate at Nottingham from 11 runs with Edgewater Drive.
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