1:55 Worcester
This Class 4 novices' handicap chase at Worcester over 2m0f110y on good to soft ground brings together a competitive field of ten, several of whom are stepping up or down in trip while carrying ratings clustered between 102 and 120. The KTB Fit scores identify Tigers Moon as the clear top pick on 75, with Next Twist, Red Oak, Just Her Type and Beauty In The Park completing the principals, all rated smart or high-class on their best efforts. Several runners arrive in solid recent form, though the lack of course experience for most adds an element of the unknown to the conditions.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of multiple habitual front-runners, most notably Next Twist and Beauty In The Park, with Tigers Moon and Red Oak also likely to race prominently. This early speed could set the race up for a late collapse, playing into the hands of hold-up performers such as Kiwi Rush and Sweeper System. The key question is whether the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the lap of something coming from off the pace in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tigers Moon KTB Selection75/100
Tigers Moon is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with figures of 12132- and an official rating of 108. He steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance, and his record shows two wins and four places from six runs on good to soft. The yard records a 12% strike rate at Worcester from 25 runs, in line with their overall figure, while jockey Jack Andrews adds a 20% strike rate at the track from 30 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be well placed to track the expected strong pace. With the selection tag attached on a KTB Fit of 75, he looks to have the best blend of proven ability and suitability to the likely shape.
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2Next Twist66/100
Next Twist is a high-class performer with a solid recent record including two wins last season and an official rating of 120. He steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance from seven attempts while his going form shows a win from four starts on good to soft. Trainer Olly Murphy has a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 174 runs in line with his overall record and jockey Sean Bowen adds further strength to the booking with a 23% strike rate at the track from 466 rides. A habitual front-runner, he is sure to set the strong pace that is expected and will take plenty of catching if he sees it out. Half-brother to Grade 2 winner Steel Ally, he brings high-class credentials to the race.
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3Red Oak65/100
Red Oak is a high-class performer who arrives in solid nick after four wins from nine starts and holds an official rating of 120. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance from two attempts, though his record on good to soft shows only one placing from three starts. The trainer records a 19% strike rate at Worcester from 78 runs while the jockey is on 11% from 219 rides here, both in line with their figures elsewhere. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be prominent in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. His ability places him firmly among the main dangers to the selection.
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4Just Her Type61/100
Just Her Type is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with figures of 13123- and an official rating of 117. She drops back in trip today having been placed once in two starts at this distance while showing a win and a place from two runs on good to soft. Trainer Max Comley has a 9% strike rate at Worcester from 22 runs in line with his record elsewhere and this is the horse's first run here, though jockey Freddie Mitchell brings a 22% strike rate at the track from only 18 rides. Typically settling in midfield, she may benefit if the strong early pace collapses late. Her consistent recent form keeps her in the picture.
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5Beauty In The Park56/100
Beauty In The Park is a smart performer who brings a solid official rating of 112 and looks to have more to offer stepping up in trip having already won at this distance. Recent form of 5214- shows clear ability though the latest run was a shade below best. Nicholls has a 28% strike rate at Worcester from 394 runs which is above his record elsewhere while the jockey is operating at 5% here from 37 rides in line with his overall figure. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, she will be right up there early in what is expected to be a strong pace. Half-sister to Thirtyfourstitches who won ten times, she is dropping in class and cannot be ruled out.
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6Sweating Bullets54/100
Sweating Bullets is high-class on the figures and lightly raced with only four runs. He drops back in trip today having last been seen over two and a half miles so the new distance is an unknown. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard's 12 percent strike rate at Worcester is in line with their record elsewhere. Half-brother to Mahons Glory who won six times, he remains unproven on good to soft ground.
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7Kartoon And Co53/100
Kartoon And Co is a smart performer who arrives off a solid recent record of 12326 and holds an official rating of 108. He drops back in trip today having already won at this distance from four attempts. Trainer at Worcester shows an 18 percent strike rate from 441 runs in line with his overall figure while the jockey has no separate course data supplied. He is dropping in class but has shown no win or place from two runs on good to soft.
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8Kiwi Rush53/100
Kiwi Rush is a smart performer on his day with an official rating of 110 and a solid recent record that includes placed efforts. He drops back to a trip he has won at from four attempts while first-time headgear is now applied. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Worcester and the jockey is operating at 13% here, in line with his overall figure. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited if the strong pace collapses.
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9Sweeper System47/100
Sweeper System is a useful performer who has shown enough in recent runs to hold his own in this grade. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance and has a positive record on good to soft ground with one win and two places from two starts. Trainer is 0% from 23 runs at Worcester which is in line with their 6% strike rate elsewhere. Usually held up, he may come into his own if the race falls apart late.
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10Hans Lippershey46/100
Hans Lippershey is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He finished second here over this trip on his only previous visit to Worcester and has been competitive on good to soft ground with two places from three starts. He drops back in distance today after his last run over two and a half miles while stepping up in class. Usually racing handily, he should be prominent early.
KTB verdict
Tigers Moon stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 75 and proven ability at this distance on good to soft ground. His recent form of 12132- underlines his consistency, and the prominent run-style should allow him to track the strong pace before delivering his challenge. Next Twist and Red Oak, both high-class on ratings of 120, represent the chief dangers if they can sustain their front-running and prominent efforts respectively, while Just Her Type and Beauty In The Park add further depth to what looks a competitive renewal.
KTB Selection Tigers Moon
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 1 Nov. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Tigers Moon | 11/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Next Twist | 7/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Red Oak | 11/4 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Just Her Type | 10/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Beauty In The Park | 5/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Sweating Bullets | 14/1 | BoyleSports, 12:03am |
| Kartoon And Co | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Kiwi Rush | 15/2 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Sweeper System | 22/1 | BoyleSports, 12:03am |
| Hans Lippershey | 16/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having already won twice at this distance?
Tigers Moon, who has two wins from six runs on good to soft.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
At least two habitual front-runners, Next Twist and Beauty In The Park, with Tigers Moon and Red Oak also prominent.
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear and is lightly raced?
Sweating Bullets, who has only four runs and is unproven on good to soft.
Who has the highest strike rate at Worcester among the trainers of the principals?
Paul Nicholls with a 28% strike rate at Worcester from 394 runs for Beauty In The Park.
Which horse finished second here over this trip on its only previous visit to Worcester?
Hans Lippershey, who is dropping back in distance after racing over two and a half miles last time.
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