Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 16.7%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
16.7%+2.0
n=60 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +44.58
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−14.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
28.6%+13.9
n=7 · A/E 3.35 · £1 +30.50
When favourite
20%
n=10 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −2.42
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
11.1%−3.6
n=27 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +23.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
12.5%−2.2
n=8 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −3.67
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 620.5% vs 14.7% · n=39
On first rides for the horse16.7% vs 14.7% · n=60
Over 1m2f – 1m4f16.7% vs 14.7% · n=36
In Flat races14.7% vs 14.7% · n=75 · A/E 1.27
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good21314.3%+5.83
Standard (AW)16531.3%+34.50
Good to Firm1417.1%−5.00
Good to Soft1218.3%−8.75
Soft10110%+24.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Redcar8112.5%−3.67
Carlisle7228.6%+30.25
Newcastle (AW)7228.6%+13.50
Beverley6116.7%+3.00
Southwell (AW)6350%+24.00
Ripon5120%+10.00
Pontefract400%−4.00
Doncaster400%−4.00
Catterick300%−3.00
Hamilton300%−3.00
Ascot300%−3.00
Chester300%−3.00
York300%−3.00
Ayr200%−2.00
Musselburgh2150%+5.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 639820.5%+35.58
Class 52328.7%+18.50
Class 41119.1%−3.50
Class 3200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite12216.7%0.70−4.42
2nd–3rd fav1417.1%0.45−10.50
4th–6th fav30620%2.23+29.50
7th+ in betting19210.5%2.34+34.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f36616.7%+27.83
6f – 7f19421.1%+6.75
1m – 1m1f1300%−13.00
Under 6f5120%+29.00
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221300%−13.00
20231218.3%−4.50
202414321.4%+36.50
202514321.4%+12.00
202622418.2%+17.58
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners27311.1%+23.50
8-10 runners27414.8%+16.00
5-7 runners12325%+13.75
17+ runners500%−5.00
14-16 runners3133.3%+1.33
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 61 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
330172525177110115050
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 13.4% of 1,482 runs since 2008 (172 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.4% from 167. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.9% from 111.
Progeny have won 12.1% of 8,107 runs since 2008 (600 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 18.1% from 700. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9% from 365.
Invincible Spirit (IRE)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,815 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 5,631 runs since 2008 (563 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 140 · newest first
The latest 50 of 140 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 March 2017 to 16 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Miss Amy Collier's strike rate?
Miss Amy Collier has won 11 of 75 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 14.7% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Miss Amy Collier in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Miss Amy Collier's Fair A/E?
1.27, from 75 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Miss Amy Collier·SR 14.7%·A/E 1.27
KTB
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