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Jockey profile

Natasha Eaton

418 rides in the lifetime window · 163 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Sep 2014 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
30–418
Wins / Runs
7.2%
Strike rate
n=418
103 (25%)
Placed
0.93
Fair A/E
n=415 · 0.82 incl. margin
−146.00
£1 level stake
n=418 at SP · −34.9%
£189k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.7%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (37 rides). Rode mostly for Alan Bailey — 53% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 418 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Alan Bailey: 8.1% from 223 LTO winners: 16.2% Claiming: 7.4%
The read

It is weakest at Yarmouth (2.6% over 38 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.2% (n=37, Fair A/E 1.39), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 0% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −86.00 to a £1 stake over 163 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Alan Bailey supplied 53% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.1%, A/E 0.88). The rider also read well over 1m – 1m1f (12.1%, n=99) and off a 8-14-day break (11.1%, n=117). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.7% over 37 rides, 4.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good going: Fair A/E 0.49 across 67 rides (3% strike, −53.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.3%−2.9
n=163 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −86.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
16.2%+9.0
n=37 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −1.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
1.9%−5.3
n=53 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −19.00
When favourite
40%
n=15 · A/E 1.67 · £1 +6.50
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.4%+0.2
n=379 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −118.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−7.2
n=49 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −49.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 16.2% vs 7.2% · n=37
Over 1m – 1m1f 12.1% vs 7.2% · n=99
Off a 8-14-day break 11.1% vs 7.2% · n=117
On Good going 3% vs 7.2% · n=67
At Yarmouth 2.6% vs 7.2% · n=38
Off a 61-180-day break 2.7% vs 7.2% · n=37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 205 16 7.8% −47.25
Good to Firm 78 5 6.4% −17.50
Good 67 2 3% −53.50
Soft 27 3 11.1% −8.50
Good to Soft 24 3 12.5% −6.00
Heavy 10 1 10% −6.25
Firm 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 94 10 10.6% −29.75
Lingfield (AW) 61 4 6.6% +9.00
Yarmouth 38 1 2.6% −31.50
Kempton (AW) 32 2 6.3% −8.50
Brighton 19 1 5.3% −8.00
Southwell (AW) 18 0 0% −18.00
Haydock 18 5 27.8% +20.75
Chester 17 1 5.9% −13.25
Newmarket 14 1 7.1% +9.00
Doncaster 12 0 0% −12.00
Ayr 11 1 9.1% −8.25
Bath 10 0 0% −10.00
Leicester 10 1 10% −4.00
Beverley 8 0 0% −8.00
Windsor 7 0 0% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 178 8 4.5% −91.50
Class 5 129 13 10.1% −38.75
Class 4 66 4 6.1% −16.00
Class 2 24 2 8.3% +3.00
Class 3 16 2 12.5% −6.25
Class 7 5 1 20% +3.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 20 6 30% 1.32 +1.50
2nd–3rd fav 63 10 15.9% 1.02 −9.50
4th–6th fav 126 10 7.9% 1.02 −24.00
7th+ in betting 209 4 1.9% 0.43 −114.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Dazzling Valentine (GB) 28 2 10 29 May 14
Imprimis Tagula (IRE) 23 2 6 19 Feb 13
St Ignatius (GB) 14 2 5 29 Sep 14
Chosen Character (IRE) 13 3 8 9 Nov 13
Gifted Heir (IRE) 13 2 6 15 Aug 13
Granny McPhee (GB) 11 1 3 25 Jun 11
Strike Force (GB) 10 3 6 16 May 13
Fleeting Image (GB) 9 2 7 31 Oct 12
Bubbly Ballerina (GB) 8 1 3 25 Jun 13
Catbells (IRE) 8 1 4 24 Jan 11
Athboy Auction (GB) 8 1 2 8 Dec 10
Harrison George (IRE) 7 2 4 12 Oct 13
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 163 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
153184715745343
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardAlan Bailey
53% of all rides
8.1% SR · A/E 0.88
TrainerRWSR£1
Alan Bailey 223 18 8.1% −79.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
30
Archived wins
£189k
Prize money
2012
Best season · 13 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Baddilini (GB) — Compare Bookmakers At Bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Mar 2014 · Class 2
£15,563
Harrison George (IRE) — Enjoy Afternoon Tea In Frankies Bistro Handicap Nottingham · Jun 2013 · Class 2
£12,450
Harrison George (IRE) — Stapleford Handicap Leicester · Jun 2013 · Class 3
£7,439
Notable horses
Chosen Character (IRE) Strike Force (GB) Dazzling Valentine (GB) Imprimis Tagula (IRE) St Ignatius (GB) Gifted Heir (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Oratorio (IRE) 6.9% · 2–29
Progeny have won 10.6% of 5,063 runs since 2009 (370 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 455.
Tagula (IRE) 7.4% · 2–27
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,561 runs since 2008 (382 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 909.
Choisir (AUS) 18.8% · 3–16
Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).
Auction House (USA) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,734 runs since 2008 (142 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 10% from 100.
Ishiguru (USA) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 10.4% of 3,199 runs since 2008 (156 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 155.
Kheleyf (USA) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,549 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 419 · newest first

The latest 50 of 419 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 August 2007 to 29 September 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Sep 14 Bath St Ignatius (GB)T: Alan Bailey New ARC Racing Syndicates Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 13f · Firm · 9 ran 6th 20/1
29 Sep 14 Bath Anytimeatall (IRE)T: Alan Bailey Stone King HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Firm · 11 ran 11th 50/1
20 Aug 14 Kempton (AW) Sixties Queen (GB)T: Alan Bailey BetBright.com Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 16/1
07 Aug 14 Brighton Sarlat (GB)T: Mark Brisbourne Harringtons Lettings HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 8th 66/1
15 Jul 14 Yarmouth Anytimeatall (IRE)T: Alan Bailey Inspection Verification Bureau Plate HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 4th 14/1
10 Jul 14 Newmarket Saffire Song (GB)T: Alan Bailey Frontline Bathrooms HandicapClass 3 · 5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 50/1
05 Jul 14 Beverley Sarlat (GB)T: Mark Brisbourne Powerpart Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 11th 50/1
05 Jul 14 Beverley Harps Of Bretagne (GB)T: Lisa Williamson Award-winning Coachman Caravans Maiden Auction StakesClass 6 · 7.5f · Good · 12 ran 11th 100/1
26 Jun 14 Yarmouth Senora Lobo (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson Ladies Night At Great Yarmouth HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 14/1
20 Jun 14 Newmarket Saffire Song (GB)T: Alan Bailey Turftv HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 8th 25/1
05 Jun 14 Kempton (AW) St Ignatius (GB)T: Alan Bailey Download The Betvictor Instabet App HandicapClass 4 · 16f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 33/1
29 May 14 Bath Dazzling Valentine (GB)T: Alan Bailey 32Red On The App Store HandicapClass 5 · 11.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 8th 16/1
19 May 14 Windsor Scruffy Tramp (IRE)T: Alan Bailey Download The Unibet Pro App Claiming StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 9/2
12 May 14 Doncaster Sixties Queen (GB)T: Alan Bailey Betdaq The Sports Betting Exchange Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 9/1
28 Apr 14 Wolverhampton (AW) Dazzling Valentine (GB)T: Alan Bailey Quicksilverslots Open After 10pm Claiming StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 5 ran 4th 12/1
26 Apr 14 Leicester Dazzling Valentine (GB)T: Alan Bailey Bet Toteexacta HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 11th 20/1
25 Apr 14 Sandown Scruffy Tramp (IRE)T: Alan Bailey bet365.com Handicap (BOBIS Race)Class 2 · 5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 66/1
22 Apr 14 Yarmouth Sixties Queen (GB)T: Alan Bailey Injured Jockeys Fund HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 10/3
21 Apr 14 Yarmouth Sixties Queen (GB)T: Alan Bailey Download The Totepool Live Info App HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 11/1
05 Apr 14 Newcastle Bond Fastrac (GB)T: Geoff Oldroyd Vertem Asset Management HandicapClass 3 · 5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Natasha Eaton's strike rate?
Natasha Eaton has won 30 of 418 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Natasha Eaton do best at?
Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 94 rides (10.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Natasha Eaton ride most for?
Alan Bailey, with 223 rides since 2008 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (8.1%).
What is Natasha Eaton's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 415 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).