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Trainer profile

Noel Williams

242 runners in the last 5 seasons · 44 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 140 days ago 98% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)
from 1 Jan 2022
25–242
Wins / Runs
10.3%
Strike rate
n=242
71 (29%)
Placed
0.92
Fair A/E
n=242 · 0.80 incl. margin
−88.59
£1 level stake
n=242 at SP · −36.6%
£308k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.92).

Deterministic profile computed from 242 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance James Davies: 8.1% from 86
The read

James Davies rides 36% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (8.1% vs 10.3%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (13.6%, n=81) and off a 31-60-day break (13.3%, n=75). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 30 runners, 10.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 0.31 across 58 runners (3.4% strike, −51.83 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the British EBF BetVictor racingtohelpukraine.uk 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Newbury (Apr 2022, £20,812). The stable star of the record: Authorized Too (GB) — 5 wins from 23 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.5%−2.8
n=67 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −24.34
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
12%+1.7
n=25 · A/E 1.45 · £1 +2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.8%+1.5
n=17 · A/E 2.02 · £1 −1.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
18.2%+7.9
n=11 · A/E 1.63 · £1 −4.25
When favourite
42.1%
n=19 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +1.46
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8%−2.3
n=25 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −18.38
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.7%−2.6
n=13 · A/E 0.69 · £1 +2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 10.3% · n=30
Over 2m5f – 3m 3.4% vs 10.3% · n=58
With horses switching code 4.7% vs 10.3% · n=43
With Jonathan Burke 15.2% vs 10.3% · n=33
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 13.6% vs 10.3% · n=81
Off a 31-60-day break 13.3% vs 10.3% · n=75
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 128 12 9.4% −48.72
Chase 68 8 11.8% −26.75
NH Flat 42 5 11.9% −9.12
Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 84 10 11.9% +8.17
Good to Soft 77 7 9.1% −48.37
Soft 60 7 11.7% −32.39
Heavy 16 1 6.3% −11.00
Standard (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton 22 3 13.6% −7.00
Huntingdon 21 3 14.3% +11.62
Uttoxeter 17 2 11.8% −5.50
Warwick 14 1 7.1% −10.00
Newbury 13 2 15.4% +4.50
Fakenham 12 0 0% −12.00
Southwell 12 1 8.3% −2.00
Chepstow 11 0 0% −11.00
Lingfield 10 4 40% +8.83
Ludlow 9 1 11.1% −6.25
Ffos Las 9 0 0% −9.00
Hereford 8 1 12.5% −6.09
Kempton 7 0 0% −7.00
Market Rasen 7 0 0% −7.00
Fontwell 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 113 14 12.4% −35.14
Class 5 75 7 9.3% −25.62
Class 3 29 2 6.9% −20.83
Class 1 13 1 7.7% +2.00
Class 2 10 1 10% −7.00
Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 21 8 38.1% 1.16 −0.54
2nd–3rd fav 63 8 12.7% 0.69 −26.55
4th–6th fav 84 8 9.5% 1.23 −2.50
7th+ in betting 74 1 1.4% 0.46 −59.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.2% completed · 196 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 68 86.8% 1 1 7 0 0
Hurdle 128 85.9% 1 1 16 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Moviddy (IRE) 26 3 10 7 May 26
Lucky Rose (IRE) 14 1 6 16 Jul 25
Mighty Moth (IRE)then Eloise Quayle 13 2 8 7 Mar 25
Melusine De Pail (FR) 11 0 4 31 Mar 25
Another Crick (GB) 11 2 5 22 Apr 24
Ebselysees (GB)then Susan Corbett 10 1 2 22 Dec 25
Maximum Effort (GB) 10 0 0 26 Jan 25
Just Sophie (GB) 10 1 1 17 Oct 24
Haston Clermont (FR) 10 3 4 17 Apr 24
Queenofthejukebox (IRE) 9 2 3 21 Mar 26
Saisissante (IRE)from V Sartori 9 1 3 21 Apr 25
Dame Sarra (GB)from Ed Dunlop 8 1 2 13 Oct 25
All 44 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 44 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 35 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
121112717500000910
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJames Davies
36% of all rides
8.1% SR · A/E 1.11
RiderRWSR£1
James Davies 86 7 8.1% −17.25
Jonathan Burke 33 5 15.2% −9.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→
81
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£842k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 12 wins
Largy G (IRE) — British EBF BetVictor racingtohelpukraine.uk 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (GBB) Newbury · Apr 2022 · Grade 2
£20,812
Briery Queen (GB) — Olbg Mares' Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Dec 2016 · Class 2
£18,768
Sensulano (IRE) — OLBG.com Mares' Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Dec 2018 · Class 2
£18,582
Notable horses
Authorized Too (GB) Sensulano (IRE) Briery Queen (GB) Another Crick (GB) Moviddy (IRE) Daliance (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Urban Poet (USA) 11.5% · 3–26
Progeny have won 4.8% of 517 runs since 2008 (38 horses).
Champs Elysees (GB) 12.5% · 3–24
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,118 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Dartmouth (GB) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 10% of 489 runs since 2008 (79 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.2% from 191.
Creachadoir (IRE) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 7.9% of 827 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.8% from 161.
Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,811 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Arcadio (GER) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (375 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 808 · newest first

The latest 50 of 808 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 October 2013 to 2 June 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Jun 26 Southwell Lairig Mor (GB)J: James Davies Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 1st 9/1
30 May 26 Stratford For Love Of Beauty (GB)J: James Davies Happy 70th Birthday Rich Wilding Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 28/1
07 May 26 Huntingdon Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 5 ran PU 8/1
19 Apr 26 Plumpton Golden Sanjida (GB)J: James Davies BetGoodwin Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 18f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 40/1
13 Apr 26 Fakenham Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Mares' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 5 ran PU 4/1
09 Apr 26 Taunton For Love Of Beauty (GB)J: James Davies Tony & Carole Stocker Anniversary Surprise Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 33/1
01 Apr 26 Southwell Briery Bluebelle (GB)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Mares' Standard NH Flat Race (Conditional/Amateurs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 50/1
23 Mar 26 Wincanton Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan WinOlympics Family Day April 12th Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 9/4
21 Mar 26 Newbury Queenofthejukebox (IRE)J: Sean Bowen BetVictor British EBF 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 16/1
18 Mar 26 Huntingdon Golden Sanjida (GB)J: James Davies Weatherbys Scientific Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 14th 80/1
07 Mar 26 Sandown Millstatt Abbey (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan British Stallion Studs EBF Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 3/1F
01 Mar 26 Huntingdon For Love Of Beauty (GB)J: James Davies First Past The Post At CopyBet 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 150/1
26 Feb 26 Wetherby Queenofthejukebox (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Racing TV For The Cheltenham Festival Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 2/1
13 Feb 26 Fakenham Golden Sanjida (GB)J: James Davies Racing TV Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 12/1
13 Feb 26 Fakenham Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Terry Moyise Memorial Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Soft · 4 ran 3rd 3/1
02 Feb 26 Kempton Queenofthejukebox (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 10/1
22 Jan 26 Huntingdon Briery Bluebelle (GB)J: Jay Tidball Pertemps Network Mares' Maiden NH Flat Race (Conditionals & Amateurs)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran PU 11/1
20 Jan 26 Southwell (AW) Flame Dancer (GB)J: Georgia Dobie Midnite Aint Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 14f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 100/1
18 Jan 26 Fakenham Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Gamble Plant (Norfolk) Ltd Queen Boudicca Series Final Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 14/1
11 Jan 26 Fontwell Flame Dancer (GB)J: James Davies Betting.Bet Best Betting Sites Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 17.5f · Soft · 9 ran PU 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Noel Williams's strike rate?
Noel Williams has won 25 of 242 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Noel Williams?
James Davies, with 86 runners since 2022 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (8.1%).
What is Noel Williams's Fair A/E?
0.92, from 242 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).