What is Paul Carberry's strike rate?

Paul Carberry has won 424 of 3,141 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Carberry do best at?

Downpatrick by strike rate: 34 wins from 123 rides (27.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paul Carberry ride most for?

Noel Meade, with 1,333 rides since 2008 — 42% of the total. That pairing has won 193 (14.5%).

What is Paul Carberry's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 3,137 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paul Carberry

3,141 rides in the lifetime window · 1,287 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2015 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

424–3,141

Wins / Runs

13.5%

Strike rate

n=3,141

1,086 (35%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=3,137 · 0.81 incl. margin

−866.03

£1 level stake

n=3,140 at SP · −27.6%

£8.68m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 390 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (511 rides). Rode mostly for Noel Meade — 42% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 3,141 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 13.9% 34.7% when favourite Noel Meade: 14.5% from 1,333 LTO winners: 16.2% Rode the favourite in 16% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Downpatrick (27.6%, n=123), Perth (28.8%, n=59) and Bellewstown (28.9%, n=45) — all clear of the rider's 13.5% baseline. It is weakest at Killarney (4.8% over 63 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Noel Meade supplied 42% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (14.5%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well in Class 4 (38.6%, n=44) and on Good to Firm going (21.3%, n=244). 117 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham (Mar 2013, £156,613). The standout partner of the record was Aitmatov (GER) — 9 wins from 28 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.5%−2.0

n=1,166 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −383.25

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.2%+2.7

n=511 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −92.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

13.9%+0.4

n=648 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −100.77

When favourite

34.7%

n=499 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −65.67

Big fields · 14+ runners

11.3%−2.2

n=1,624 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −512.06

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.4%−2.1

n=605 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −121.87

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 4 38.6% vs 13.5% · n=44

At Downpatrick 27.6% vs 13.5% · n=123

At Perth 28.8% vs 13.5% · n=59

At Bellewstown 28.9% vs 13.5% · n=45

On Good to Firm going 21.3% vs 13.5% · n=244

At Killarney 4.8% vs 13.5% · n=63

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 2,006 292 14.6% −458.15

Chase 1,113 130 11.7% −401.13

Flat 12 0 0% −12.00

NH Flat 10 2 20% +5.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 1,025 121 11.8% −414.16

Good 766 100 13.1% −192.37

Heavy 733 101 13.8% −159.78

Good to Soft 321 40 12.5% −86.12

Good to Firm 244 52 21.3% −6.46

Firm 45 10 22.2% −0.14

Standard (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 394 45 11.4% −118.76

Fairyhouse 341 47 13.8% −91.76

Navan 242 33 13.6% −103.25

Leopardstown 189 18 9.5% −66.67

Down Royal 160 23 14.4% −55.24

Kilbeggan 129 19 14.7% −51.19

Gowran Park 129 14 10.9% −49.73

Downpatrick 123 34 27.6% +54.87

Naas 122 18 14.8% −45.61

Thurles 117 15 12.8% −46.99

Cheltenham 103 9 8.7% +17.38

Clonmel 103 10 9.7% −29.50

Galway 101 11 10.9% −44.72

Cork 95 10 10.5% −41.72

Listowel 94 8 8.5% −59.17

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 694 76 11% −101.37

Class 4 44 17 38.6% +16.29

Class 3 35 6 17.1% −0.56

Class 2 31 5 16.1% −0.12

Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 6 3 1 33.3% −0.75

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 583 193 33.1% 1.13 −77.34

2nd–3rd fav 933 139 14.9% 1.00 −244.19

4th–6th fav 981 70 7.1% 0.97 −297.50

7th+ in betting 643 22 3.4% 0.84 −247.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.3% completed · 3,119 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 1,113 79.1% 60 24 141 5 3

Hurdle 2,006 93.5% 30 12 82 3 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Muirhead (IRE) 23 4 6 17 Sep 14

Realt Dubh (IRE) 21 5 12 9 Jun 14

Donnas Palm (IRE) 20 5 10 27 Oct 12

Silverhand (IRE) 20 3 8 29 Sep 12

Texas Jack (IRE) 19 5 10 18 Sep 15

Cross Appeal (IRE) 19 1 4 4 Oct 14

Foildubh (IRE) 18 4 9 3 Jun 15

Perfect Smile (IRE) 18 2 4 1 May 14

Prima Vista (GB) 17 2 8 23 Oct 14

Aitmatov (GER) 17 3 8 5 Jun 12

Corskeagh Royale (IRE) 15 2 7 26 Jan 14

Chicago Grey (IRE) 14 3 5 6 Apr 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,287 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

141111101613171312201411

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardNoel Meade

42% of all rides
14.5% SR · A/E 1.05

TrainerRWSR£1

Noel Meade 1,333 193 14.5% −323.15

Gordon Elliott 606 109 18% −90.77

A J Martin 191 22 11.5% −77.72

S J Mahon 39 3 7.7% −9.50

C A McBratney 32 4 12.5% −4.50

Adrian Maguire 30 2 6.7% −20.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

643

Archived wins

117

Pattern / graded wins

£14.1m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 86 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Solwhit (FR) — Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2013 · Class 1

£156,613

Don Cossack (GER) — Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2015 · Grade 1

£120,000

Beef Or Salmon (IRE) — Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2006 · Grade 1

£109,800

Notable horses

Aitmatov (GER) Watson Lake (IRE) Muirhead (IRE) Iktitaf (IRE) Realt Dubh (IRE) Donnas Palm (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 18.8% · 30–160

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Oscar (IRE) 15.5% · 20–129

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Flemensfirth (USA) 16.5% · 20–121

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Presenting (GB) 14% · 12–86

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Anshan (GB) 20% · 11–55

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.

Definite Article (GB) 17% · 8–47

Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,388 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,388 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 19 September 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Sep 15 Listowel Rich Coast (GB)T: Noel Meade Allman Contracts Limited Beginners Chase17f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran F 10/1

18 Sep 15 Listowel Texas Jack (IRE)T: Noel Meade Southampton Goodwill Chase20f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 9/2

17 Sep 15 Listowel Gentleman Duke (IRE)T: A L T Moore Ladbrokes Island Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)16f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 12/1

13 Sep 15 Listowel (IRE) Jansboy (GB)T: N Dooly Cheestrings Beginners Chase20f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 7/1

09 Sep 15 Galway Tribes And Banner (IRE)T: Norman Lee Guinness Handicap Chase18f · Good · 10 ran 7th 14/1

09 Sep 15 Galway Seeyouallincoppers (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Galway City & Salthill Publicans Charity Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran 7th 14/1

09 Sep 15 Galway Iffjack (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Mervue Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 5/4F

08 Sep 15 Galway Abarta (IRE)T: V T O'Brien Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase (0-109)22.5f · Good · 14 ran 1st 5/1F

08 Sep 15 Galway Rocky Court (IRE)T: S J Mahon Deacy Gilligan Novice Hurdle18f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 33/1

08 Sep 15 Galway Lost Book (IRE)T: S J Mahon Anglo Printers Handicap Hurdle (80-109)20.5f · Good · 19 ran 5th 14/1

08 Sep 15 Galway Definite Pursuit (IRE)T: V T O'Brien J.J. Rhatigan & Company Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 12/1

31 Aug 15 Downpatrick Wither Hills (IRE)T: B R Hamilton Magners Forbidden Flavours Beginners Chase18.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 4/1

31 Aug 15 Downpatrick Mustadrik (USA)T: Gordon Elliott Downe Travel & Royal Caribbean Best Dressed Lady Win A Cruise Handicap Hurdle21.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 11/4F

31 Aug 15 Downpatrick Indian Whiskey (IRE)T: J A Nash Willie Murphy Jewellers, Downpatrick Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23f · Good · 12 ran 12th 40/1

31 Aug 15 Downpatrick Iffjack (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Magners Original Cider Maiden Hurdle18.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 5/1

28 Aug 15 Down Royal Mustadrik (USA)T: Gordon Elliott SCA Group Handicap Hurdle (80-109)22f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 8/1

28 Aug 15 Down Royal Turfjager (GER)T: S R B Crawford SHS Group Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Yielding · 12 ran 7th 7/1

28 Aug 15 Down Royal Coldstonesober (IRE)T: J R Finn Kerry Foods Rated Hurdle16f · Yielding · 8 ran 4th 8/1

28 Aug 15 Down Royal Blayney Queen (IRE)T: S R B Crawford Allied Bakeries Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 15 ran 6th 16/1

28 Aug 15 Down Royal Persiflage (GB)T: Gordon Elliott Molson Coors 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 19 ran 17th 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Carberry's strike rate?: Paul Carberry has won 424 of 3,141 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Carberry do best at?: Downpatrick by strike rate: 34 wins from 123 rides (27.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paul Carberry ride most for?: Noel Meade, with 1,333 rides since 2008 — 42% of the total. That pairing has won 193 (14.5%).
What is Paul Carberry's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 3,137 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.