What is Paul O'Brien's strike rate?

Paul O'Brien has won 276 of 2,127 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul O'Brien do best at?

Huntingdon by strike rate: 21 wins from 113 rides (18.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paul O'Brien ride most for?

Harry Derham, with 590 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 133 (22.5%).

Is Paul O'Brien in form?

In the last 14 days: 16 rides, 5 winners, a strike rate of 31.3%. That is above the baseline of 13% since 2008.

What is Paul O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 2,126 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paul O'Brien

2,127 rides in the lifetime window · 781 individual horses

As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

In form — 5 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

276–2,127

Wins / Runs

13%

Strike rate

n=2,127

670 (32%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=2,126 · 0.88 incl. margin

−547.39

£1 level stake

n=2,127 at SP · −25.7%

£3.47m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 110 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 23% (269 rides). The rider is in form now — 5 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,127 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Sep 40.6% when favourite Harry Derham: 22.5% from 590 LTO winners: 22.7% Rides the favourite in 12% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Haydock (29.7%, n=37) and Stratford (24.6%, n=61) — all clear of the rider's 13% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 22.7% (n=269, Fair A/E 1.02), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.2% (n=312, Fair A/E 0.62). Right now the rider is firing: 5 winners from 16 rides in the last 14 days (31.3%, 18.3pts above the 13% baseline). Harry Derham supplies 28% of the rides and beats the rider's average (22.5% vs 13%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 9 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot (Dec 2023, £85,425). The standout partner of the record: Jamacho (GB) — 6 wins from 12 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11%−2.0

n=781 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −174.27

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

22.7%+9.7

n=269 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −18.84

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

12.8%−0.2

n=538 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −170.53

When favourite

40.6%

n=251 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −9.31

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.9%−4.1

n=806 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −278.65

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.2%−9.8

n=312 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −172.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.4%−1.6

n=79 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −8.21

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Harry Derham 22.5% vs 13% · n=590

At Haydock 29.7% vs 13% · n=37

On last-time-out winners 22.7% vs 13% · n=269

At Stratford 24.6% vs 13% · n=61

With Helen Nelmes 2.9% vs 13% · n=102

With new recruits 22% vs 13% · n=127

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,296 162 12.5% −406.28

Chase 644 99 15.4% −72.22

NH Flat 186 15 8.1% −67.89

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 818 120 14.7% −180.91

Good to Soft 590 76 12.9% −104.56

Soft 516 55 10.7% −169.59

Heavy 147 20 13.6% −62.19

Good to Firm 45 5 11.1% −19.14

Standard (AW) 11 0 0% −11.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wincanton 129 17 13.2% −2.42

Huntingdon 113 21 18.6% +23.88

Chepstow 106 10 9.4% −68.66

Exeter 101 8 7.9% −68.08

Fontwell 94 9 9.6% −52.79

Taunton 94 6 6.4% −36.50

Newbury 93 7 7.5% −27.63

Doncaster 92 13 14.1% −12.41

Uttoxeter 89 11 12.4% −21.51

Newton Abbot 85 8 9.4% −47.48

Kempton 77 11 14.3% −39.38

Market Rasen 77 13 16.9% −24.24

Southwell 72 7 9.7% −39.62

Worcester 71 9 12.7% +9.00

Warwick 68 9 13.2% +2.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 995 147 14.8% −220.68

Class 5 478 51 10.7% −144.06

Class 3 370 46 12.4% −113.69

Class 2 146 21 14.4% −8.98

Class 1 105 10 9.5% −28.71

Class 6 28 1 3.6% −26.27

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 292 106 36.3% 1.03 −38.18

2nd–3rd fav 533 102 19.1% 1.04 −64.21

4th–6th fav 691 46 6.7% 0.86 −246.00

7th+ in betting 611 22 3.6% 1.30 −199.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.5% completed · 1,940 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 644 81.8% 33 23 60 0 1

Hurdle 1,296 88.9% 22 12 106 2 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

William Cody (GB) 27 3 12 7 May 26

Fanzio (FR) 23 5 7 12 Mar 22

Almazhar Garde (FR) 22 5 13 21 Mar 26

Mixedwave (IRE) 20 3 10 27 Mar 26

Xcitations (GB) 20 5 9 24 Feb 26

Barton Rose (GB) 19 1 6 24 Jul 20

Castle Robin (IRE) 17 4 9 24 Sep 24

Western Miller (IRE) 16 3 6 22 May 21

Lord Du Mesnil (FR) 15 4 9 14 Jan 23

Loose Chips (GB) 15 1 3 10 Nov 19

Shared (GB) 14 3 5 11 Oct 25

Castafiore (USA) 14 4 6 13 Apr 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 781 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

5 from 16 31.3% · +18.3pts vs baseline

Last 14 days31.3%

Lifetime base13%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

111414141122131515131212

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardHarry Derham

28% of all rides
22.5% SR · A/E 1.10

TrainerRWSR£1

Harry Derham 590 133 22.5% −12.60

Charlie Longsdon 413 51 12.3% −19.74

Pam Sly 180 20 11.1% −73.54

Colin Tizzard 147 13 8.8% −84.41

Helen Nelmes 102 3 2.9% −73.50

Richard Hobson 81 10 12.3% −18.75

Rebecca Curtis 62 10 16.1% −25.51

Brian Barr 57 2 3.5% −42.50

Nicky Henderson 53 6 11.3% −28.34

Henrietta C Knight 48 4 8.3% −27.73

Jimmy Frost 38 1 2.6% −32.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

276

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.47m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 63 wins

Luccia (GB) — Betfair Exchange Trophy (Premier Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) Ascot · Dec 2023 · Class 1

£85,425

Washington (GB) — Bar One Racing '100% Football Acca Boost On Self Service Betting Terminals' Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Fairyhouse · Dec 2024 · Listed

£59,000

One Horse Town (IRE) — JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Nov 2025 · Grade 2

£47,552

Notable horses

Jamacho (GB) Fanzio (FR) Almazhar Garde (FR) Xcitations (GB) Jasmine Bliss (GB) Givemefive (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Westerner (GB) 18.5% · 15–81

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,874 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Midnight Legend (GB) 5.1% · 3–59

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,312 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Universal (IRE) 14.9% · 7–47

Progeny have won 11% of 978 runs since 2017 (89 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.2% from 138. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.9% from 189.

Blue Bresil (FR) 19% · 8–42

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,574 runs since 2013 (472 horses).

Court Cave (IRE) 19.5% · 8–41

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Milan (GB) 10% · 4–40

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,893 runs since 2008 (1,465 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,127 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,127 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 August 2012 to 14 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Boombox (IRE)T: Harry Derham Carlsberg EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (EBF Mares' NH Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 1st 11/8F

13 Nov 26 Southwell Clondaw Park (IRE)T: Harry Derham Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 4/5F

12 Nov 26 Market Rasen Firm But Fair (IRE)T: Harry Derham PricedUp Boosted Prices Daily Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 7/2

11 Nov 26 Bangor-on-Dee Rockson Piel (FR)T: Harry Derham Bangor-On-Dee Memberships Now On Sale EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 11/8F

09 Nov 26 Carlisle Cristal D'estruval (IRE)T: Harry Derham Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Graduation Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 1st 2/5F

08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Pure Carbon (GB)T: Harry Derham 3A's Leisure Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 13/8J

07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Moral Compass (FR)T: Harry Derham Download The Matchbook App Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 6th 15/2

07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Go To War (IRE)T: Nicky Henderson Matchbook Loves Racing Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Good · 5 ran 1st 5/4F

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Motazzen (IRE)T: Henrietta C Knight Gary Wrights Big 40th Birthday Celebration Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 19f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 11/2

06 Nov 26 Fontwell King Rolo (GB)T: Harry Derham KSR Lighting Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 250/1

05 Nov 26 Newbury Radiant Walk (IRE)T: Harry Derham BetVictor Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 1st 16/1

05 Nov 26 Newbury Western Monkey (GB)T: Harry Derham Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 16/1

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Barton Pass (GB)T: Charlie Longsdon Dunraven Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 10/1

04 Nov 26 Chepstow The Lightmaker (IRE)T: Dan Horsford LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 2nd 9/2

03 Nov 26 Lingfield Poets Pearl (IRE)T: Harry Derham Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 33/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Backwaters (FR)T: Harry Derham Southwell Racecourse Conference And Events Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 11/2

01 Nov 26 Worcester Kiwi Rush (IRE)T: Harry Derham Copybet Pay First Past The Post Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran F 15/2

01 Nov 26 Worcester The Burren Man (GB)T: Harry Derham Copybet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 11th 6/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Lasko Des Obeaux (FR)T: Harry Derham Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 7th 14/1

31 Oct 26 Ascot Shane's Spirit (IRE)T: Mickey Bowen Ascot Colts And Fillies' Club Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 6th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 7 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 7 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 6 runs (won 2, 1 did not run) · to 13 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul O'Brien's strike rate?: Paul O'Brien has won 276 of 2,127 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul O'Brien do best at?: Huntingdon by strike rate: 21 wins from 113 rides (18.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paul O'Brien ride most for?: Harry Derham, with 590 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 133 (22.5%).
Is Paul O'Brien in form?: In the last 14 days: 16 rides, 5 winners, a strike rate of 31.3%. That is above the baseline of 13% since 2008.
What is Paul O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 2,126 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.