What is Ted Durcan's strike rate?

Ted Durcan has won 579 of 4,539 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ted Durcan do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 57 wins from 284 rides (20.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ted Durcan ride most for?

David Lanigan, with 549 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 92 (16.8%).

What is Ted Durcan's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 4,512 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ted Durcan

4,539 rides in the lifetime window · 2,518 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2018 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

579–4,539

Wins / Runs

12.8%

Strike rate

n=4,539

1,462 (32%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=4,512 · 0.88 incl. margin

−1,024.30

£1 level stake

n=4,539 at SP · −22.6%

£7.05m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

100%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 410 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (547 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,539 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Nov–Dec 35.5% when favourite David Lanigan: 16.8% from 549 LTO winners: 17.4% Rode the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Bath (28.6%, n=42), Southwell (AW) (24.3%, n=70) and Wolverhampton (AW) (20.1%, n=284) — all clear of the rider's 12.8% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.4% (n=547, Fair A/E 0.96), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.7% (n=836, Fair A/E 0.98). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 8.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.73 and −140.89 to a £1 stake over 398 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. David Lanigan supplied 12% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16.8% vs 12.8%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 58 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes at Doncaster (Sep 2009, £306,586). The standout partner of the record was Rich Again (IRE) — 6 wins from 19 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Nov–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.5%−2.3

n=2,422 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −683.58

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.4%+4.6

n=547 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −80.94

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

12.4%−0.4

n=789 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −235.26

When favourite

35.5%

n=605 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −53.49

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.7%−6.1

n=836 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −281.28

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.5%−4.3

n=398 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −140.89

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Saeed bin Suroor 26.1% vs 12.8% · n=418

At Bath 28.6% vs 12.8% · n=42

At Southwell (AW) 24.3% vs 12.8% · n=70

With Brian Meehan 0% vs 12.8% · n=44

With John Best 0% vs 12.8% · n=34

At Wolverhampton (AW) 20.1% vs 12.8% · n=284

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,316 211 16% −205.35

Good to Firm 1,264 154 12.2% −323.39

Good 1,001 102 10.2% −234.15

Good to Soft 487 64 13.1% −81.39

Soft 364 36 9.9% −138.31

Firm 60 8 13.3% −27.21

Heavy 47 4 8.5% −14.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton 572 80 14% −108.76

Newmarket 330 38 11.5% −54.68

Yarmouth 311 39 12.5% −109.53

Wolverhampton (AW) 284 57 20.1% −8.72

Lingfield 258 42 16.3% −56.35

Newmarket 235 18 7.7% −104.94

Windsor 228 21 9.2% −86.54

Nottingham 177 25 14.1% +7.63

Newbury 176 19 10.8% −26.75

Doncaster 160 21 13.1% +42.75

Sandown 159 18 11.3% −11.17

Goodwood 158 14 8.9% −67.62

Ascot 152 11 7.2% −31.75

Leicester 147 19 12.9% −28.99

Chelmsford (AW) 118 12 10.2% −28.77

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,556 221 14.2% −208.43

Class 4 1,149 135 11.7% −415.75

Class 6 614 86 14% −116.55

Class 3 449 65 14.5% −61.81

Class 1 398 34 8.5% −140.89

Class 2 368 38 10.3% −75.87

Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 706 239 33.9% 1.09 −58.87

2nd–3rd fav 1,166 189 16.2% 1.00 −192.43

4th–6th fav 1,324 113 8.5% 1.05 −155.00

7th+ in betting 1,343 38 2.8% 0.79 −618.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Rich Again (IRE) 19 6 10 21 Aug 16

Mister Bob (GER) 15 6 8 23 Sep 17

Polybius (GB) 15 4 6 1 Oct 16

Qanan (GB) 14 2 9 30 Sep 15

Wannabe King (GB) 14 3 5 29 Aug 11

Comrade Bond (GB) 13 3 9 13 Aug 14

Biographer (GB) 13 3 7 29 May 14

Main Sequence (USA) 13 3 7 19 Oct 13

Warrior Of Light (IRE) 12 2 5 14 Nov 15

Royal Rock (GB) 12 4 6 4 Oct 14

Yair Hill (IRE) 12 3 3 15 Aug 14

Drift And Dream (GB) 12 2 6 22 Sep 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 2,518 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

23177101112131413131717

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid Lanigan

12% of all rides
16.8% SR · A/E 1.10

TrainerRWSR£1

David Lanigan 549 92 16.8% −99.39

Chris Wall 500 65 13% −126.59

Saeed bin Suroor 418 109 26.1% +29.41

Sir Michael Stoute 377 59 15.6% −92.54

John Dunlop 234 25 10.7% −47.55

Mark H Tompkins 142 11 7.7% −84.92

Sir Henry Cecil 138 28 20.3% −1.88

James Bethell 122 23 18.9% +21.33

Tim Easterby 119 15 12.6% −8.00

Mick Channon 82 6 7.3% −38.12

Marco Botti 54 5 9.3% −20.37

George Baker 50 7 14% +3.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

809

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£11.0m

Prize money

2007

Best season · 96 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Mastery (GB) — Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) Doncaster · Sep 2009 · Group 1

£306,586

Light Shift (USA) — Vodafone Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2007 · Group 1

£222,350

Twice Over (GB) — Prix Eugene Adam (Right-handed) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Jul 2008 · Group 2

£167,647

Notable horses

Rich Again (IRE) Mister Bob (GER) Polybius (GB) Royal Rock (GB) Ragged Robbin (FR) Light Shift (USA)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Oasis Dream (GB) 18.4% · 23–125

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,014 runs since 2008 (1,510 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 483. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Dansili (GB) 14.4% · 16–111

Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,842 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 13.3% · 14–105

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,030 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Dubawi (IRE) 20.7% · 19–92

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,957 runs since 2008 (1,526 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 13.6% · 12–88

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,840 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Pivotal (GB) 17.8% · 13–73

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,788 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,817 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,817 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 28 March 2005 to 12 September 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

12 Sep 18 Doncaster Central City (IRE)T: Ian Williams Clipper Logistics Leger Legends Classified Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 1st 10/1

02 Dec 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Refrain (IRE)T: Sir Michael Stoute 32Red.com EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 2)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 9/2

29 Nov 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Chloris (GB)T: John Gosden 32Red Casino Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 2)Class 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 8/1

25 Nov 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Lexington Empire (GB)T: David Lanigan 32Red.com EBF Stallions Novice Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 50/1

25 Nov 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Wild West Hero (GB)T: Sir Michael Stoute 32Red.com EBF Stallions Novice Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 33/1

18 Nov 17 Lingfield (AW) Reveleon (GB)T: Sir Michael Stoute 32Red.com/EBF Novice Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 25/1

16 Nov 17 Chelmsford City (AW) Desert Diamond (GB)T: Sir Michael Stoute totescoop6 Three Ways To Win Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 16/1

09 Nov 17 Chelmsford City (AW) Wild West Hero (GB)T: Sir Michael Stoute Bet Totequadpot At Betfred.com Novice StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 50/1

08 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Crystal Moonlight (GB)T: Sir Michael Stoute 100% Profit Boost At 32RedSport.com EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 14/1

07 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Thankyou Very Much (GB)T: James Bethell 100% Profit Boost At 32RedSport.com HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 10/1

07 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Reveleon (GB)T: Sir Michael Stoute 32Red Casino Novice Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 25/1

06 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Portledge (IRE)T: James Bethell 32red Casino HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 13/2

06 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Launceston Place (FR)T: Henry Spiller Breeders Supporting Racing EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) (Sire/Dam-restricted race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 12/1

04 Nov 17 Newmarket Worth Waiting (GB)T: David Lanigan Prestige Classics EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 2)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 33/1

04 Nov 17 Newmarket Hateel (IRE)T: William Haggas Prestige Classics EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 1)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 8/1

02 Nov 17 Lingfield (AW) Scandaleuse (USA)T: Sir Michael Stoute 32Red Casino/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 11/8F

31 Oct 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Comrade In Arms (USA)T: Sir Michael Stoute 10 Free At 32Red.com Novice StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 9/1

28 Oct 17 Newbury Sunday Smart (IRE)T: P J Prendergast Bathwick Tyres Stakes (Fillies' Listed) (Registered As The Radley Stakes)Class 1 · 7f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 28/1

28 Oct 17 Newbury Across The Stars (IRE)T: Sir Michael Stoute Worthington's 'Indigo Leisure' Stakes (Group 3) (Registered As The St Simon Stakes)Class 1 · 12f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 33/1

28 Oct 17 Newbury Hazarfiya (GB)T: Sir Michael Stoute Conundrum EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 1)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ted Durcan's strike rate?: Ted Durcan has won 579 of 4,539 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ted Durcan do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 57 wins from 284 rides (20.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ted Durcan ride most for?: David Lanigan, with 549 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 92 (16.8%).
What is Ted Durcan's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 4,512 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.