What is Tom O'Brien's strike rate?

Tom O'Brien has won 897 of 7,031 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tom O'Brien do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 64 wins from 387 rides (16.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tom O'Brien ride most for?

Philip Hobbs, with 1,786 rides since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 249 (13.9%).

What is Tom O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 7,025 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tom O'Brien

7,031 rides in the lifetime window · 2,789 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Apr 2023 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

897–7,031

Wins / Runs

12.8%

Strike rate

n=7,031

2,255 (32%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=7,025 · 0.90 incl. margin

−1,643.12

£1 level stake

n=7,031 at SP · −23.4%

£10.3m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 370 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (866 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 7,031 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Sep 35.3% when favourite Philip Hobbs: 13.9% from 1,786 LTO winners: 20.2% Rides the favourite in 12% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Perth (21.1%, n=76), clear of the rider's 12.8% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20.2% (n=866, Fair A/E 1.06), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 7.1% (n=1,399, Fair A/E 1.01). Philip Hobbs supplies 25% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (13.9%, A/E 0.96). The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (23.5%, n=170). 38 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow (Dec 2018, £85,425). The standout partner of the record: Pure Faith (IRE) — 8 wins from 28 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.8%−2.0

n=2,672 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −719.03

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20.2%+7.4

n=866 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −142.67

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.3%−2.5

n=1,654 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −482.00

When favourite

35.3%

n=811 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −50.67

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.1%−5.7

n=1,399 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −532.43

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.6%−4.2

n=428 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −83.76

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Dr Richard Newland 28.7% vs 12.8% · n=87

Off a 0-7-day break 23.5% vs 12.8% · n=170

On last-time-out winners 20.2% vs 12.8% · n=866

With Hughie Morrison 22.8% vs 12.8% · n=123

With Jamie Snowden 20.5% vs 12.8% · n=151

At Perth 21.1% vs 12.8% · n=76

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 3,902 479 12.3% −1,021.40

Chase 2,483 354 14.3% −432.01

NH Flat 643 64 10% −186.71

Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 2,790 349 12.5% −582.74

Good to Soft 1,560 166 10.6% −460.42

Soft 1,495 188 12.6% −421.50

Heavy 595 96 16.1% −91.72

Good to Firm 551 93 16.9% −61.27

Standard (AW) 29 4 13.8% −17.09

Firm 11 1 9.1% −8.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Exeter 394 42 10.7% −187.92

Newton Abbot 387 64 16.5% −32.18

Uttoxeter 383 53 13.8% −85.54

Worcester 329 45 13.7% +39.88

Wincanton 327 43 13.1% −74.18

Fontwell 305 41 13.4% −18.49

Ffos Las 303 44 14.5% −72.68

Chepstow 301 42 14% −16.48

Taunton 273 25 9.2% −158.54

Cheltenham 266 19 7.1% −91.75

Stratford 256 35 13.7% −45.32

Warwick 233 28 12% −70.90

Ludlow 232 35 15.1% −23.09

Kempton 232 17 7.3% −132.12

Plumpton 230 32 13.9% −10.91

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 2,958 396 13.4% −794.23

Class 3 1,353 203 15% −148.21

Class 5 1,337 148 11.1% −430.26

Class 1 539 41 7.6% −148.76

Class 2 531 70 13.2% −93.20

Class 6 301 38 12.6% −27.46

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 946 325 34.4% 1.10 −39.98

2nd–3rd fav 1,875 333 17.8% 1.04 −237.14

4th–6th fav 2,308 191 8.3% 1.03 −338.00

7th+ in betting 1,902 48 2.5% 0.74 −1,028.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.6% completed · 6,385 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 2,483 76.2% 136 52 390 5 7

Hurdle 3,902 88.2% 92 29 326 6 7

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mount Vesuvius (IRE) 29 2 8 5 Jul 19

Pure Faith (IRE) 28 8 13 18 Oct 13

No Likey (IRE) 27 3 9 2 Sep 17

No Panic (IRE) 26 7 13 11 Nov 12

Tudors Treasure (GB) 23 5 11 1 Feb 23

Master Work (FR) 23 5 9 17 Oct 21

Chance du Roy (FR) 22 6 10 11 Apr 15

Rio Gael (IRE) 21 5 11 30 Nov 12

Leapaway (IRE) 20 4 7 20 Sep 22

Life Of A Luso (IRE) 20 4 10 31 Aug 15

Rior (IRE) 19 2 7 25 Jul 16

Taffy Thomas (GB) 19 3 6 17 May 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 2,789 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

111213131416141415131212

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPhilip Hobbs

25% of all rides
13.9% SR · A/E 0.96

TrainerRWSR£1

Philip Hobbs 1,786 249 13.9% −465.54

Peter Bowen 646 99 15.3% −87.45

Paul Henderson 531 51 9.6% −147.42

Ian Williams 436 63 14.4% −84.91

Robert Stephens 271 34 12.5% −53.37

Colin Tizzard 271 31 11.4% −99.13

Henry Daly 270 37 13.7% −42.40

Jamie Snowden 151 31 20.5% +3.58

Hughie Morrison 123 28 22.8% +73.74

Caroline Keevil 97 9 9.3% −26.45

Alan Jones 87 11 12.6% −11.00

Dr Richard Newland 87 25 28.7% +4.49

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,078

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£11.9m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 86 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Elegant Escape (IRE) — Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Chepstow · Dec 2018 · Grade 3

£85,425

Chance du Roy (FR) — Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Aintree · Dec 2013 · Grade 3

£84,405

Thyme Hill (GB) — Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2021 · Grade 1

£84,195

Notable horses

Pure Faith (IRE) No Panic (IRE) Always Waining (IRE) Mumbles Head (IRE) Chance du Roy (FR) Tudors Treasure (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

King's Theatre (IRE) 15.2% · 34–223

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Kayf Tara (GB) 13.2% · 25–190

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,769 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Milan (GB) 17.2% · 30–174

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,892 runs since 2008 (1,465 horses).

Oscar (IRE) 19.3% · 32–166

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Levmoss (GB) 5.8% · 9–154

Progeny have won 11% of 20,053 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Beneficial (GB) 7% · 8–114

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,126 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,126 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 29 April 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Apr 23 Sandown Thyme Hill (GB)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 21.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 9/4

28 Apr 23 Perth Industrialist (IRE)T: Henry Daly Download The BetVictor App Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 14/1

28 Apr 23 Perth Bridge North (IRE)T: Henry Daly Edith Bowman At Perth Ladies Day Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Soft · 5 ran F 4/1

27 Apr 23 Warwick Butler's Brief (IRE)T: Alastair Ralph Watch Irish Racing On RacingTV Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 25f · Good · 10 ran 8th 18/1

27 Apr 23 Warwick Doyen Queen (IRE)T: Paul Henderson Coop And Alis 40th Birthday Celebration Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 4th 18/1

22 Feb 23 Ludlow Emotional Memories (IRE)T: D J Jeffreys Suzuki ATV Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 5 ran F 66/1

21 Feb 23 Taunton Eye Knee (GB)T: Syd Hosie Royal Bath & West Of England Society Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 66/1

21 Feb 23 Taunton Across The Line (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23f · Good · 8 ran 4th 28/1

20 Feb 23 Lingfield Briery Express (GB)T: Noel Williams Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Mares' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 6th 3/1

18 Feb 23 Ascot Spring Gale (GB)T: Henry Daly British European Breeders' Fund EBF Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 8th 28/1

18 Feb 23 Ascot Thomas Mor (IRE)T: David Pipe Age Concern Bracknell Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 10/3J

18 Feb 23 Ascot Sporting John (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs LK Bennett Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 11th 12/1

16 Feb 23 Sandown Keep Wondering (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Alanbrooke Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 14/1

15 Feb 23 Hereford Emma Hamilton (IRE)T: Henry Daly Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 3/1

15 Feb 23 Hereford Maid Of The Night (IRE)T: Henry Daly Cazoo Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 5/4F

13 Feb 23 Plumpton Tzunami (GB)T: Paul Henderson Strong Flavours Catering Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 8th 125/1

12 Feb 23 Exeter Musical Slave (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Veterans' Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 1st 2/1F

11 Feb 23 Newbury Monviel (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 12/1

11 Feb 23 Newbury Zanza (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 16/1

11 Feb 23 Newbury Jatiluwih (FR)T: Philip Hobbs Betfair Multiples Offer Every Saturday Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 4th 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tom O'Brien's strike rate?: Tom O'Brien has won 897 of 7,031 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom O'Brien do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 64 wins from 387 rides (16.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tom O'Brien ride most for?: Philip Hobbs, with 1,786 rides since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 249 (13.9%).
What is Tom O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 7,025 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.