1:22 Chepstow
This Class 4 novices’ hurdle at Chepstow, run over 2m 16y on good to soft ground, brings together ten runners in the first division of the Wasdell Group event. The KTB Fit scores point to a clear top horse on 62 while the next four principals sit in a narrow band between 51 and 52, suggesting a competitive but not especially deep field. With no established leader in the race and a steadily-run, tactical affair expected, the ability to produce a late effort from a handy position is likely to be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, which could leave the race vulnerable to one who can get into a good rhythm just behind the pace. The key question is whether the top-rated horse can overcome his usual hold-up style in a race that may not be run to suit him, or whether one of the less-exposed rivals can capitalise on the muddling tempo.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1King's Scholar KTB Selection62/100
King's Scholar arrives with the strongest recent record in the field, his 4-112 figures showing two wins at today's trip from only four starts over hurdles. The 5-year-old has been placed once from three starts on good to soft and should therefore be competitive on this surface while the yard's 15% strike rate at Chepstow from 111 runs provides solid course support. Although this is his first run at the track, his overall profile carries high data confidence. Olly Murphy teams up with Tom Hutsby who is claiming 10lb, though the trainer-jockey combination has shown a 1/15 record here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run affair.
-
2Kind Intention52/100
Kind Intention showed steady progress in bumpers before landing a 2m maiden hurdle on his most recent start and has already won at today's trip. The form suggests he is still relatively unexposed as a 5-year-old and he has been placed once from three starts on good to soft. Tom Symonds holds an 11% strike rate at Chepstow from 83 runs while Ben Poste operates at a 5% strike rate from 151 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the likely tactical nature of the race. With only four career starts he remains open to further improvement.
-
3Herbies Sock51/100
Herbies Sock is a 4-year-old newcomer to hurdling with just two bumper runs behind him, finishing third on his latest start. The Tom Lacey yard operates at a 19% strike rate at Chepstow from 135 runs and pairs here with Stan Sheppard who holds a 15% record from 161 rides at the track. By Tirwanako, who has a 17% overall win rate, the colt's pedigree and sales background offer no strong pointers either way. With low data confidence and no course form on record, his chance rests on the yard's proven record at this venue. He is likely to be held up in a steadily-run race.
-
4No Hard Feelings51/100
No Hard Feelings has shown a recent sequence of 701-11, registering two wins from his last three starts, yet the small sample and low data confidence make the level of form difficult to gauge accurately. Dropping back from 2m4f to 2m poses a fresh question while he remains unproven on good to soft having had no previous runs on the surface. Matt Sheppard has a 9% strike rate at Chepstow from 259 runs and teams up with Gavin Sheehan who is operating at 17% from 207 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to develop in his favour in what is expected to be a tactical affair.
-
5Goliath Flight51/100
Goliath Flight showed only modest form when finishing fifth on his debut over this trip and remains very much an unknown quantity with just that one run on the clock. The Dan Skelton yard has a 12% strike rate at Chepstow from 341 runs while Charlie Todd is operating at 7% from 29 rides here. He has had no starts on good to soft so the ground is another unknown and the low confidence in the limited evidence of his run-style adds further uncertainty. Usually held up, he will be asked to produce his effort late in a race that may not be strongly run. Overall this looks like a watching brief at this stage.
-
6Poets Pearl49/100
Poets Pearl has shown only modest form in two starts and was beaten a fair way on his hurdling debut. Harry Derham has a 24% strike rate at Chepstow from 38 runs but Paul O'Brien is operating at 10% from 97 rides here; both trip and ground remain unknown on this small sample.
-
7Cooltobecareless47/100
Cooltobecareless showed useful form when winning on debut over this trip and has since mixed it with better company, finishing a creditable second here last time. Dropping back from 2m1f looks a positive and he has course form having been placed on his only visit; both trainer and jockey have solid records at Chepstow though the small overall sample means this remains a lightly-raced profile to treat with some caution.
-
8Teletime46/100
Teletime has shown very little in three runs to date and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Chepstow. Neil Mulholland has an 11% strike rate here from a large sample but Richie McLernon is operating at just 4% from 195 rides; with such a light career record and no placed form the horse remains hard to assess.
-
9Jubilee Jack41/100
Jubilee Jack has shown very little in three starts to date and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Chepstow. Harriet Dickin records a modest 5% strike rate here from 43 runs while Tabitha Worsley is still seeking her first win from 34 rides at the track; first-time headgear is now fitted as he drops back in trip but with such a poor record this looks one to watch rather than get involved with.
-
10Lady Bam39/100
Lady Bam is lightly raced with just one run in the last year and her form figures of 613- suggest some ability, though the small sample makes her hard to weigh up accurately. She has been placed at today's trip but Tom Ellis has a 0% strike-rate from nine runs at Chepstow and Jack Andrews is also 0% from seven rides here; with low data confidence this one is best approached with caution.
KTB verdict
King's Scholar stands out as the KTB Selection on the strength of his 4-112 record, two wins at today's trip and high data confidence. He has already shown he can be competitive on good to soft and benefits from the yard's healthy 15% strike rate at Chepstow. The main dangers are likely to come from Kind Intention, who remains unexposed after landing a maiden hurdle, and from the newcomer Herbies Sock who represents a yard that knows the track well. No Hard Feelings and Goliath Flight add further depth but both bring questions regarding trip, ground and overall level of form.
KTB Selection King's Scholar
This is the narrative read of the 1:22 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is that score?
King's Scholar has the highest KTB Fit Score on 62/100.
How many of the principals are described as usually held up?
Four of the five principals are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse is dropping in class and has course form at Chepstow?
Cooltobecareless is dropping in class and has finished second on his only previous run at Chepstow.
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear?
Jubilee Jack is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Chepstow among those represented in this race?
Harry Derham has the highest strike rate at Chepstow on 24% from 38 runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies