1:45 Ayr
A 12-runner Flat class 5 contest over 1m2f0y at Ayr (1:45), on Heavy going. KTB has scored every runner; the preview below reads the race off those numbers.
How the race shapes up
One clear front-runner with little to pressure it — likely an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ghost Story KTB Selection55/100
Modest performer with a solid recent run of placed efforts in similar company. Drops back to a trip he has won over twice from seven attempts though he is unproven on heavy ground and makes his first visit to Ayr. Trainer has a respectable 15% strike rate here from 13 runs while the jockey has no recorded rides at the track.
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2Royal Blaze54/100
Modest performer who has won three times at Ayr from seven runs and also has a solid record at this trip with four wins from 13 attempts. Recent form includes two victories in the last six starts but he has never tried heavy ground so that remains an unknown. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here with figures close to expectations.
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3Idyllic53/100
Idyllic is a limited performer who has been a regular at this track without winning, posting placings on three of his four visits to Ayr. He has won over today's trip in the past but showed little spark on his only heavy-ground start and looks vulnerable from stall 9 in a race where stronger types are likely to be involved. The trainer's modest record here is offset by the jockey's solid 16% strike-rate at the course.
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4Naturalia51/100
Modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from five runs and also has a win at today's trip. Recent form is mixed but she did win at this track in August before two lesser efforts. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 13%.
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5Spanish Hustle49/100
Modest performer who has been on the go for a long time and has shown very little spark this year. He has run four times at Ayr without placing and is now 0-17 on turf since 2022. Drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has failed to win at in six previous attempts, though he does handle heavy ground.
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6West Tyrone49/100
Modest performer who has won once from three starts at Ayr and is 1-5 at today's trip.
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7Vega Storm49/100
Modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning, finishing third on his only visit to Ayr.
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8Falcon Nine47/100
Falcon Nine is a limited performer who has been placed on four of his five starts at Ayr without winning.
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9Motawaared46/100
Modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing second four times from his last six starts.
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10Sophiesticate43/100
Sophiesticate is a limited performer who has been around a long time and rarely wins.
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11Sweet Kiss43/100
Sweet Kiss is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning.
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12Tap Dancer38/100
Tap Dancer is a limited performer who has been consistent enough at this track without winning, finishing placed once from nine runs here.
KTB verdict
KTB's top-rated runner is Ghost Story on a Fit Score of 55/100. On our numbers the main dangers are Royal Blaze and Idyllic.
KTB Selection Ghost Story
This is the narrative read of the 1:45 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runner does KTB rate highest in the 1:45 at Ayr?
Ghost Story tops the KTB Fit ranking for this race on a score of 55/100.
How many runners are in this race?
12 runners are declared (non-runners excluded).
What is the going for the 1:45 at Ayr?
The going is described as Heavy.
What distance is this race run over?
It is run over 1m2f0y.
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