2:17 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 1m2f1y on good ground brings together nine modest performers, several with prior experience at the track. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Yafaarr on 65 and Bradbury on 64, with the remainder trailing off from Hibernate’s 57. Most of the field are hold-up types, which sets up an interesting test against the lone leader scenario projected by the pace shape.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested lead, the pace shape suggests a strongly run race in which the front-runner could prove difficult for the closers to reel in. The majority of runners, including the top four in the KTB rankings, are held-up performers who will be looking to produce their effort late. The key question is whether any of the hold-up brigade can close the gap on an uncontested leader or whether the pace advantage will prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Yafaarr KTB Selection65/100
Yafaarr is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and holds a solid course record. He steps up in trip today having been mostly campaigned over a mile, with two previous tries at this distance yielding no success. The Sam England yard maintains a 17% strike-rate at Redcar from 30 runs and the horse acts on good ground with two wins and three places from eight starts. Trainer and jockey combined show an 11/47 (23%) record with an A/E of 1.62 and +£21.45 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall five. His recent form of 132461 includes those two course victories.
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2Bradbury64/100
Bradbury is a modest performer who has won twice this year but has been inconsistent overall with three poor runs from his last six starts. He steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance yet his most recent efforts came over shorter. The Edward Bethell stable has a strong 25% strike rate at Redcar from 102 runs while the horse handles good ground with one win and two places from two starts. Trainer and jockey combined read 13/58 (22%) with an A/E of 1.17 and +£0.71 LSP. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he is drawn widest in stall nine. Recent form reads 116361.
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3Hibernate57/100
Hibernate is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with a string of placed efforts from his last six starts. He drops back to a trip he has won over previously while the Ed Dunlop yard’s 17% strike-rate at Redcar from 141 runs is respectable. The horse goes well on good ground with a win and four places from six attempts. Usually held up with medium confidence attached to that run-style, he is drawn in stall six. Recent form of 152423 underlines his reliability at this level. He is ridden by Conor Whiteley, who has an 11% strike rate at the track.
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4Woodleigh50/100
Woodleigh is a limited horse who has run 41 times in the last year yet still shows a solid record here, winning three of his six starts at Redcar including at today’s trip. He acts on good ground with a win and five places from ten runs, and his recent form of 545162 includes another course success. The Roger Fell yard holds a 13% strike rate from 226 runs at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he is drawn in stall two. Trainer and jockey combined show 3/40 (8%) with an A/E of 0.76 and -£23.00 LSP.
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5Naturalia46/100
Naturalia is a modest performer with a solid recent record of four seconds and a win from her last six starts. She has course experience here but could only manage fifth on her sole visit, while the drop back to 1m2f is a positive as she has already won at the trip. Usually held up with high confidence, the Donald Whillans yard has a 13% strike rate from eight runs at Redcar.
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6Jewel Maker45/100
Jewel Maker is a limited performer at this level who has been mixing his form of late with a win and a string of lesser efforts. He has won over today’s trip in the past and also has a course success here to his name from five runs. The yard’s modest 8% strike-rate at Redcar adds a note of caution. Usually held up with high confidence, his recent form reads 764179.
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7Panelli39/100
Panelli is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place twice this year but has looked limited at this level on his last three starts. Only one previous try at Redcar produced a midfield finish and he is 0-3 on good ground with no win in 18 runs overall. The trainer’s modest 2% strike-rate at the track adds little confidence here. Usually held up, he drops in class.
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8Sunny Orange36/100
Sunny Orange is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place four times in his last seven runs at this trip without managing a win. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground but remains winless after five runs at Redcar and has never placed here. The yard’s modest record at the track adds no encouragement. Usually held up with high confidence, he steps up in class.
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9Sassy Glory36/100
Sassy Glory is a limited performer who has mixed form this year and steps up in trip having last run over a mile. Placed six times at this distance without winning and has been competitive on good ground without scoring. Trainer’s modest record at the track adds no confidence on her first run here. She is the only front-runner in the field.
KTB verdict
Yafaarr is the KTB Selection. He brings a solid course record to the table, having won twice from six starts at Redcar, and acts on the prevailing good ground. Although stepping up in trip, his hold-up style should see him delivered late against a pace shape that gives the lone leader plenty of rope. Main dangers are Bradbury, who has won twice at this distance and is trained by a yard in strong form at the track, and the consistent Hibernate, who drops back to a trip he has won over. Woodleigh cannot be entirely dismissed either given his three course wins including at today’s trip.
KTB Selection Yafaarr
This is the narrative read of the 2:17 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won the most times at Redcar?
Woodleigh with three wins from six starts at the track.
How many hold-up performers are in the field?
Eight of the nine runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse is the only front-runner?
Sassy Glory tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Who has the strongest trainer strike-rate at Redcar among the principals?
Edward Bethell with a 25% strike rate at the track from 102 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in trip having been mostly campaigned over a mile?
Yafaarr, with two previous tries at this distance yielding no success.
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