2:23 Pontefract

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Aphra Behn KTB Selection59/100

   Form 32431 · Ralph Beckett · Rossa Ryan

   Aphra Behn is a modest performer who has shown steady improvement and landed a win over this trip last time out, taking her form figures to 32431. Ralph Beckett’s 27% strike rate at Pontefract from 134 runs stands well above the expected figure, while Rossa Ryan operates at 25% from 72 rides, both offering encouragement. She is dropping in class from an OR of 70 and remains lightly raced with only five runs total, though she has no experience on good to soft ground or at the track itself. Her front-running style, in which she tends to make the running or race on the pace, looks ideally suited to the expected strong gallop. The combination of recent progress, trainer and jockey track records, and the chance to dictate in front makes her the KTB selection.

2. 2Under Arrest58/100

   Form 5532 · William Haggas · Cieren Fallon

   Under Arrest is a modest performer with consistent placed form at this level, his recent efforts reading 5532. Dropping back to 1m looks a fair move after shaping as though the extra furlong stretched him last time, though he has never won. William Haggas has a solid 22% strike rate at Pontefract from 278 runs, while Cieren Fallon strikes at 29% from his 24 rides here. He is held up in his races, usually producing his effort late, which should be to his advantage given the strong pace likely to unfold. He has been placed once from one run on good to soft and is dropping in class from an OR of 73, though he has no previous course form.

3. 3Orchard Hatches53/100

   Form 833 · Marcus Tregoning · Jason Watson

   Orchard Hatches is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing third on both his last two outings at this trip for figures of 833. The yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Pontefract from 64 runs while Jason Watson rides the track at a useful 20% from 40 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, though with limited evidence, and the draw in stall two looks favourable. Dropping in class from an OR of 69, the trip looks fine, yet with only three runs behind him there is still plenty of guesswork involved and he remains unproven on good to soft ground.

4. 4Craven Force48/100

   Form 67050 · Craig Lidster · Duran Fentiman

   Craven Force is a limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date for figures of 67050 and now lines up from an OR of 54. He looks up against it from a wide draw in stall eight, and the step up to a mile is an unknown at this stage. Craig Lidster has a solid record at the track with a 16% strike rate from 50 runs, but Duran Fentiman’s modest 5% strike rate from 295 rides at Pontefract adds little encouragement. He has one run on good to soft without winning or placing and has no course form on record, leaving him with plenty to find.

5. 5Statten Island48/100

   Form 44464 · Kevin Ryan · Tom Eaves

   Statten Island is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in five runs this year, finishing no better than fourth for figures of 44464. Connections have solid records at Pontefract, with Kevin Ryan recording a 12% strike rate from a large sample of 581 runs, though Tom Eaves is operating at a more modest 8%. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and is dropping in class from an OR of 70. The trip looks an open question after one unplaced effort at this distance and the going remains unknown with such a light career footprint, while he has no previous course form.

6. 6Emerald Bay47/100

   Form 611324 · George Scott · David Egan

   Emerald Bay is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and a string of placed efforts from figures of 611324. He has been asked a fresh question on good to soft ground today and is making a first appearance at Pontefract, where his trainer holds a strong 21% strike rate but the jockey’s 6% record from 54 rides is more modest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is rated 66.

7. 7Bella Lucia47/100

   Form 36312 · Gemma Tutty · Joanna Mason

   Bella Lucia is a modest filly who has shown a mixed bag in five runs, winning a nursery at Redcar last time but with two poor efforts either side of that for figures of 36312. She steps up to a mile for the first time today which asks a fresh question of her, though she has been placed once from one run on good to soft. Gemma Tutty has a modest 4% strike rate at the track from 45 runs while Joanna Mason records a solid 13% from 145 rides; she is rated 66 and stepping up in class.

8. 8Diplomacy43/100

   Form 6993 · Michael & David Easterby · Andrew Mullen

   Diplomacy is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts before a much better third at this trip last time for figures of 6993. The yard has a solid 11% strike-rate here from 161 runs while Andrew Mullen is equally at home with a 9% record from 338 rides. He is usually held up, the trip looks to suit, but the small sample on this ground leaves that side of things unknown and he is rated 52 while stepping up in class.

9. 9Tribal Appearance43/100

   Form 24486 · Dr Richard Newland · Paul Mulrennan

   Tribal Appearance is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form on his first two starts before tailing off in three runs since for figures of 24486. Stall 11 looks far from ideal on a track where the draw can matter and he is now trying this trip for only the second time. The trainer's small sample at Pontefract offers no guidance while the jockey's modest 9% strike-rate here is well below expectations; he is rated 67.

10. 10High Hazard42/100

    Form 300504 · Hugo Palmer · David Probert

    High Hazard is a modest performer who has shown little for the money in recent starts and looks exposed after eight runs for figures of 300504. Hugo Palmer has a modest 9% strike-rate at Pontefract from 55 attempts while David Probert is similarly ordinary at 10% from 50 rides. Only one run on good to soft and one try at this trip both produced no win or place so the trip and ground remain unproven questions; he is rated 65.

11. 11King of Persia41/100

    Form 776811 · Tim Easterby · David Allan

    King of Persia is a limited horse who has shown his best form when winning his last two starts over today's trip on good to soft ground for figures of 776811. He was well held on his only previous run here though and remains exposed in a race where plenty of others have similar or better ability. Both trainer and jockey operate at a 10% strike rate at the track from large samples; he is rated 58 and stepping up in class.