2:30 Gowran Park
The Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle at Gowran Park brings together a competitive field of 13 for this 3m0f0y contest on yielding to soft ground. Several high-class performers line up, headed by the KTB Selection Jacovec Cavern with a Fit Score of 73, while the numbers also rate Cobra Queen, Born Braver, Moonovercloon and Mordor as the other principals in a race that features plenty of unproven elements regarding trip and ground. Overall the KTB Fit Scores suggest a tight contest among the top weights, with course form and yard records at Gowran adding further layers to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Cobra Queen is the only front-runner in the field, suggesting she will be allowed an uncontested lead. Most of the principals and the remainder of the field prefer to be held up or race in mid-division, meaning they will be asked to close late off what could be a steady gallop. The key question is whether anything from behind can bridge the gap to the uncontested leader on this surface, or whether the pace advantage will prove decisive in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Jacovec Cavern KTB Selection73/100
Jacovec Cavern is a high-class performer with solid course connections, having won here from three starts at Gowran Park. He drops back to 3m after being placed on both his previous runs at the trip, though he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. The Paul Hennessy yard strikes at 8% here from 26 runs, while Richard Condon operates at a 13% strike rate from 31 rides at the track, and their overall record when teaming up reads 4/20 (20%) with an A/E of 2.21. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the seven-year-old brings an official rating of 120 and recent form figures of 1-23P6 into the race.
-
2Cobra Queen69/100
Cobra Queen is a high-class mare who showed her best form when winning last time out. She steps up in trip today after failing to land a blow in two previous attempts at this distance, and she is unproven on yielding to soft ground. Henry de Bromhead holds a solid 13% strike rate at Gowran from a big sample of 528 runs, while Alan O'Sullivan is operating at 17% from six rides here, and together they are 1/5 (20%). As the only front-runner in the field she is set to make the running or race prominently off what looks an uncontested lead, bringing an official rating of 124 and recent form figures of -P8331.
-
3Born Braver67/100
Born Braver is a high-class performer with strong ratings and a solid race history. He drops back from a stiff 3m7f last time to a trip he has won at before, and his record on yielding to soft ground reads a useful one win and two places from five starts. Gavin Cromwell and Keith Donoghue team up with a combined record of 180/1319 (14%) and an A/E of 0.79, though both have modest records at Gowran, the trainer at 9% from 328 runs and the jockey at 8% from 138 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the eight-year-old carries an official rating of 128 with recent form figures of 2010P-.
-
4Moonovercloon55/100
Moonovercloon is a smart performer who has shown his best form at shorter trips and now tries 3m for the fourth time without success. He handles yielding to soft ground well enough with one win and two places from four starts. Declan Queally has a solid 18% strike rate at Gowran from 67 runs, but Michael Kenneally is only 6% from 18 rides here, and together they are 5/53 (9%) with an A/E of 0.48. Typically settling in midfield, the nine-year-old brings an official rating of 113 and recent form figures of 47-0PF.
-
5Mordor54/100
Mordor is a high-class performer with a solid career record who steps up markedly in trip today from his last run over 2m. He has placed on yielding to soft ground and at this distance without winning either, so both remain unproven questions rather than confirmed strengths. Gordon Elliott holds an 11% strike rate from 624 runs at Gowran, while Paddy Cleary (7lb claim) has too few rides here to judge, and their combined record reads 3/52 (6%) with an A/E of 0.88. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the six-year-old carries an official rating of 124 with recent form figures of 1208/3.
-
6Smallcraftwarning53/100
Smallcraftwarning is a smart performer who arrives in decent nick judged on recent form figures of 051341. He has won over this trip and shown he handles yielding to soft ground with one victory and a placing from four starts, while the trainer holds a solid record at Gowran but the jockey is operating below par here.
-
7Fad Eadrainn53/100
Fad Eadrainn is a high-class performer on his day with strong ratings and history to back him up. He has shown some ability at this trip without winning and has course experience here though neither run was particularly encouraging, while the yard's modest record at Gowran and the step up in trip both add uncertainty.
-
8Born Bright52/100
Born Bright is a smart performer who has won over this trip but looks vulnerable on current form after a pulled-up effort last time. He has never run at Gowran Park and has failed to place in four runs on yielding to soft ground, while the trainer has a poor record here though the jockey has shown some promise at the track.
-
9Zoffman50/100
Zoffman is a smart performer who has been largely out of form this year and was well beaten on his most recent start. He has only one previous run at Gowran Park which produced a modest sixth, while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates here and the step up to 3m is an unknown at this stage though he did win his only start on yielding to soft ground.
-
10My Trump Card49/100
My Trump Card is a smart performer on his day but has been hit and miss lately with form figures reading 06816. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Gowran from 302 runs while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from 14 rides here, and he is untried at the track as well as unplaced in both runs on this sort of ground and four attempts at the trip.
-
11Lough Nigara48/100
Lough Nigara is a smart performer who has won three times this season and arrives in solid form after a recent run. He steps up to 3m for the first time today having been placed without winning at the trip on all three previous attempts, while his record on yielding to soft is modest with no win or place from two starts, and both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
-
12Butter Fingers41/100
Butter Fingers is a smart performer who has shown useful form this season with a win and a second from his last three starts. He has been below par in three runs at this track though and the yard's modest 4% strike-rate here is another negative, while stepping up to an untried 3m is an interesting move and he has already shown he handles yielding to soft ground.
-
13Better Times41/100
Better Times is a smart performer with a solid recent profile that includes a win on yielding to soft ground. He steps up to an untested 3m today which asks a fresh question while connections have no wins from 10 runs at Gowran Park for the trainer and none from 9 rides for the jockey, and his first appearance at the track is simply unknown rather than a negative.
KTB verdict
Jacovec Cavern is the KTB Selection. A high-class performer with solid course connections after winning here from three starts, he drops back to a trip where he has been placed both previous times and brings strong trainer-jockey figures at Gowran. The main dangers are likely to come from Cobra Queen, who is set to enjoy an uncontested lead as the lone front-runner, and Born Braver, who drops back in trip with a strong record on the ground. Mordor and Moonovercloon also have claims if the race shape plays to their respective styles, but the selection looks to have the best blend of course form and ability.
KTB Selection Jacovec Cavern
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get an uncontested lead?
Cobra Queen, as the only front-runner in the field against a pace shape of lone leader with high confidence.
How many principals are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Two of the top five principals, Jacovec Cavern and Cobra Queen, have no runs on yielding to soft.
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Jacovec Cavern, who has won here from three starts at Gowran Park.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Gowran among the principals?
Moonovercloon's trainer Declan Queally with an 18% strike rate from 67 runs.
Which runner is stepping up markedly in trip from 2m?
Mordor, whose last run was over 2m and who now tries 3m for the first time.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies