3:00 Aintree
The William Hill Old Roan Limited Handicap Chase is a competitive Grade 2 contest over 2m3f200y at Aintree on good to soft ground, featuring a field of 13 high-class performers all stepping up in class. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top five headed by Prairie Wolf on 79, with Matterhorn, Riskintheground, Hitman and Boombawn closely grouped behind on 73 to 65, while the remainder of the field sits between 64 and 50. Recent form is mixed across the runners but several hold strong course records at Aintree and proven ability at today's trip.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run race is expected with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, creating a fair test. Bluey is the most obvious front-runner while Prairie Wolf and Hitman will race prominently and Imperial Saint is another who usually races handily. The held-up brigade of Matterhorn, Riskintheground, Boombawn, Etalon, Master Chewy and Matata will be looking to come from off the pace, and the key question is whether the prominent runners can maintain their position in a strongly-run affair or if the closers will be able to land a telling blow late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Prairie Wolf KTB Selection79/100
Prairie Wolf is the KTB Selection. This high-class performer arrives in top form after two wins from his last three starts and boasts a strong official rating of 142. He has won at this trip from 11 attempts and holds a sound record on good to soft ground with four wins from 16 runs. He has also won from three starts at Aintree. The trainer has a 25% strike rate at the track from four runs while Jack Tudor operates at 15% from 40 rides here. Prairie Wolf usually races prominently on or close to the lead and will be right up there from the outset in what is expected to be a genuinely-run contest.
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2Matterhorn73/100
Matterhorn is a high-class performer who brings strong recent form and a solid official rating of 143. He has won at today's trip and shown ability on good to soft ground with one win and two places from four starts. The yard holds a 15% strike rate at Aintree from 366 runs in line with its record elsewhere while the jockey is operating at 17% from 18 rides here. Usually held up, Matterhorn produces his effort late and will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a true gallop.
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3Riskintheground72/100
Riskintheground is a high-class performer with a solid recent record including a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He has won twice at today's trip from ten attempts and holds a respectable record on good to soft ground with three wins from thirteen runs. The trainer shows a 15% strike rate at Aintree in line with their record elsewhere while the 5lb claimer is 14% from seven rides here. Usually held up, he will be produced late and needs the race to fall right in a genuinely-run affair.
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4Hitman66/100
Hitman is a high-class performer with a solid official rating of 152 and proven ability at this track where he has won once from nine runs. He drops back in trip today having last run over 2m5f yet holds two wins from ten starts at this distance while his record on good to soft reads one win from eleven runs with five places. The trainer operates at a 12% strike rate here from 772 runs which sits below their 23% at other courses. Usually prominent, he will be on or close to the lead and is sure to be involved for a long way.
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5Boombawn65/100
Boombawn is a high-class performer who has won at this trip and at Aintree itself. He arrives in modest recent form yet holds an official rating of 143 and now tries headgear for the first time. The Skelton team and Harry Skelton both operate at a 15% strike rate here. Usually held up, Boombawn will be ridden for a late run in what looks a truly-run race and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition as he attempts to bounce back.
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6Bluey64/100
Bluey is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 42121- and an official rating of 136. He has won on good to soft going from four runs and holds a win at today's trip from two attempts though he drops back in distance from his last start. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Aintree from 66 runs in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey records an 8% strike rate from 39 rides here also in line with his other tracks. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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7Etalon63/100
Etalon is a high-class performer who has posted solid placed efforts at this track and is proven at today's trip. He drops back from 3m after a recent pull-up and has a mixed record on good to soft ground with just two wins from 12 starts. The trainer's 15 percent strike rate at Aintree is in line with his overall figure while the jockey's 6 percent strike rate here is below his general mark. Usually held up, he will be produced with a late effort.
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8Master Chewy62/100
Master Chewy is a high-class performer with a solid official rating of 152 and proven ability at this track where he has won once from four runs. He drops back in trip today having been placed at this distance without winning and holds a respectable record on good to soft ground with two wins and six places from nine starts. The yard's 15 percent strike rate at Aintree matches their record elsewhere while the jockey is operating at 11 percent here which is below his overall figure. Usually held up, he will be ridden for a late run.
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9Wendigo61/100
Wendigo is a high-class performer who arrives with a solid official rating of 147 and recent form that includes two wins from his last four completed starts. He drops back to a trip he has won twice from three attempts but was well held when sixth on his only previous visit to this track. The trainer and jockey both operate at a below-average strike rate here. He typically settles in midfield.
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10Insurrection59/100
Insurrection is a high-class performer on his day who brings solid recent form and a 135 official rating. He has three wins from seven starts on good to soft and has placed twice in four runs at today's trip though he drops back from 2m5f. This is the first time at Aintree for both horse and trainer while the jockey's 10% strike rate here sits in line with his record elsewhere. He typically settles in midfield.
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11Matata58/100
Matata is a high-class performer who brings strong ratings and a solid recent record into this race. He has been well beaten on all four previous runs at Aintree with no win or place, though the yard’s 15% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere and the jockey’s 8% strike rate follows the same pattern. He has only one win from six runs on good to soft and is stepping up in trip today having failed on his sole previous attempt at this distance. Usually held up, he will need to produce a strong late effort.
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12Imperial Saint56/100
Imperial Saint is a high-class performer who has won three times from six starts at this track. He drops back sharply in trip from a recent 4m2½f run having already won twice from three starts at this distance, and he holds a solid record on good to soft ground with four wins from 11 starts. The trainer holds a 17% strike rate at Aintree from 24 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 13 rides here. Usually prominent, he will be on or close to the lead.
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13Teddy Blue50/100
Teddy Blue is a high-class performer with a solid official rating of 144 and a recent record that includes two wins and three places from his last six completed starts. He has course experience here but was pulled up on his only visit to Aintree, while the trainer is 0 from 11 at the track and the jockey is 0 from 16. Dropping back in trip today to a distance where he has placed both starts is a positive, though his record on good to soft is mixed with just two wins from 12 runs. He typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Prairie Wolf stands out as the KTB Selection. He arrives in excellent order with two wins from his last three starts, has won at the trip and the course, and his prominent running style looks ideally suited to the expected genuinely-run pace. The 9-year-old has the best KTB Fit rating in the field and his record on good to soft ground further strengthens the case. Main dangers include Matterhorn and Riskintheground from the Skelton yard, both high-class performers with strong recent form who will be closing late, while Hitman brings the highest official rating and proven course ability from a handy position.
KTB Selection Prairie Wolf
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:03am, 25 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Prairie Wolf | 16/1 | 7Bet, 1:03am |
| Matterhorn | 40/1 | 7Bet, 1:03am |
| Riskintheground | 40/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Hitman | 9/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| Boombawn | 3/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Bluey | 15/2 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Etalon | 40/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| Master Chewy | 13/2 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Wendigo | 9/2 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Insurrection | 18/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Matata | 12/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Imperial Saint | 7/1 | William Hill, 1:03am |
| Teddy Blue | 16/1 | 7Bet, 1:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Aintree. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Aintree racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Aintree results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Aintree racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent winning record at Aintree?
Prairie Wolf has won from three starts at Aintree.
How many principals are held up in running?
Three of the five principals usually race held up: Matterhorn, Riskintheground and Boombawn.
Which runner is trying headgear for the first time?
Boombawn is trying first-time headgear.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Aintree among the principals?
Prairie Wolf's trainer has a 25% strike rate at Aintree from four runs.
Which horse has won the most times at this track?
Imperial Saint has won three times from six starts at Aintree.
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