3:35 Doncaster
The Betfred May Hill Stakes is a Group 2 contest for two-year-olds over a mile at Doncaster on good to soft ground. An 11-runner field features several lightly raced types stepping up in class or distance, with the KTB Fit ratings highlighting a clear top pick on 72 while the remainder cluster between 59 and 46. The race asks fresh questions of most runners regarding trip, ground or grade, and the strong pace anticipated could play a significant role in how it unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and confidence in that view is high. Scommessa Sicura, Tie A Navyribbon, Musical Times and potentially Martinet are all inclined to race on or near the lead, which raises the likelihood of an honest gallop that could collapse in the final furlong. That scenario would play to the strengths of hold-up performers such as the selection Sea Of Rain, Ballyskeagh and Eabha, who can deliver their efforts late off a strong pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sea Of Rain KTB Selection72/100
Sea Of Rain arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 72 and is the clear selection. A useful colt, he boasts a solid recent record of 223141 that includes two wins and three seconds from his last six starts. He has already won twice over today's mile trip from five attempts at the distance. Trainer J S Bolger holds a 25% strike rate at Doncaster from 12 runs, giving strong course connections, while Rossa Ryan takes the ride. Run-style is held up with high confidence and he usually produces his effort late. The going remains an unknown with no runs on good to soft and only seven career starts on the board.
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2Scommessa Sicura59/100
Scommessa Sicura is rated 59 on KTB Fit and is a leading contender. A useful performer, he has finished no worse than second in four of his five starts and looks to have solid placed form at this trip. The yard posts a respectable 14% strike rate at Doncaster from a big sample of 436 runs, while the trainer and jockey combination shows 20% from 2646 rides with an A/E of 0.94. Run-style is front-runner with high confidence as he tends to make the running or race on the pace. He has been placed once from one run on good to soft though is yet to win on the surface. Going suitability remains unknown on the basis of only five runs overall.
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3Ballyskeagh55/100
Ballyskeagh holds a KTB Fit of 55 and has already shown he belongs at this level. A useful colt, he has a win and two placed efforts from just three starts, including a placed effort at this trip. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 24 runs, backed by a 17% trainer-jockey record from 202 rides with an A/E of 1.03. Run-style is held up, usually producing his effort late, though confidence here is only medium. The going remains unproven with no runs on good to soft from his small sample of three outings.
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4Tie A Navyribbon55/100
Tie A Navyribbon is rated 55 on KTB Fit and steps up in class as a fair performer. He has already won at this trip on his only attempt and the form figures of 361 show steady improvement. Lightly raced, he retains scope to do better. Trainer William Stone has a 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 11 runs while Josephine Gordon has a 15% strike rate at the track from 68 rides. Run-style is front-runner with medium confidence as he tends to make the running or race on the pace. The going is unproven with no runs on good to soft.
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5Eabha54/100
Eabha is rated 54 on KTB Fit and is a useful performer who has been consistent. She has three wins and two places from six starts this year. Today she steps up to a mile for the first time, which asks a new question. The trainer and jockey combination shows 12% from 1985 rides with an A/E of 0.87. Run-style is held up with medium confidence as she usually produces her effort late. She has one run on good to soft with no win or place.
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6Tall Trees53/100
Tall Trees is rated 53 on KTB Fit and is a useful performer who has shown steady improvement, winning a nursery last time after a string of placed efforts. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the going remains unproven with no runs on good to soft.
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7Speckles53/100
Speckles is rated 53 on KTB Fit and has shown useful ability in three starts, finishing a clear second on his most recent outing. He is asked a fresh question over this trip having failed to make an impact in his only previous attempt at the distance. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Doncaster and Ryan Moore is aboard.
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8Thuritha53/100
Thuritha is rated 53 on KTB Fit and is a fair performer who has shown steady improvement in three starts with a win at this trip already on her record. Drawn in stall 1 she should get a nice run through from the inside. Trainer Simcock has a 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 221 runs.
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9Musical Times51/100
Musical Times is rated 51 on KTB Fit and has won both starts in useful company while remaining lightly raced. The step up to a mile poses a fresh question while the good to soft ground is unknown with only two runs on the board. Appleby has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 240 runs and Buick is in the saddle.
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10Beguiled47/100
Beguiled is rated 47 on KTB Fit and has shown fair ability in two runs, finishing third then winning a maiden over 7f. The step up to 1m poses a fresh question while the good-to-soft ground remains unknown given the small sample. The Gosden yard holds a 23% strike rate at Doncaster and Doyle is a reliable booking.
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11Martinet46/100
Martinet is rated 46 on KTB Fit and has shown fair ability in three runs this year with a win and two placed efforts. He steps up to a mile for the first time today which asks a new question of him while the yard has a 12% strike rate at Doncaster from 228 runs. The small sample on this ground leaves suitability unknown.
KTB verdict
Sea Of Rain stands out with a KTB Fit of 72 and is the selection. A useful colt with a solid recent record that includes two wins and three seconds from his last six starts, he has already won twice over today's trip and benefits from strong course connections through his trainer's 25% strike rate at Doncaster. His held-up run-style looks well suited to the strong pace that is likely. The main dangers are Scommessa Sicura, who has finished no worse than second in four of five starts, and Ballyskeagh, who has already shown he belongs at this level with a win and two placed efforts from three starts. Tie A Navyribbon and Eabha are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be ruled out if the unknowns of class or trip are overcome.
KTB Selection Sea Of Rain
This is the narrative read of the 3:35 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at a mile already?
Sea Of Rain has already won twice over today's trip from five attempts and Tie A Navyribbon has won at this trip on his only attempt.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners and it could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Doncaster in this field?
J S Bolger has a 25% strike rate at Doncaster from 12 runs, Charlie Appleby has 23% from 240 runs and the Gosdens also have 23% from 162 runs.
Which runners are stepping up in class?
Tie A Navyribbon, Tall Trees, Thuritha, Musical Times and Beguiled are all stepping up in class.
Which horses are held up in running?
Sea Of Rain, Ballyskeagh, Eabha, Tall Trees, Speckles, Thuritha and Beguiled are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
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