3:40 Catterick
This Class 6 handicap over 1m7f189y at Catterick on soft ground brings together a field of limited performers, several of whom are dropping in class while others step up or down in trip. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Rock On Pedro heading the numbers on 58, followed by Bollin Neil on 55, while the remainder sit in the high 40s and below. Several runners have shown ability on soft ground or at the track, but most carry questions over trip, surface or consistency.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two or more habitual front-runners are present and several more like to race prominently. Fairydale, Golden Samba, Lilykoy, Ebony Maw, Bollin Neil and Flag of Eva could all contribute to an early burn-up that risks collapsing in the straight. That shape would play to the strengths of hold-up performers, posing the key question of whether any prominent racer can get away with it or if the race will fall to something coming from midfield or further back.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rock On Pedro KTB Selection58/100
Rock On Pedro is a limited performer who has dropped to a workable mark yet arrives here on the back of two modest runs. He has won on soft ground and at today's trip, though this will be his first visit to Catterick from stall 12 of 12. Olly Murphy holds a 24% strike rate at the track from 34 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while the 5lb claim of H. J. Horgan offers some assistance. The selection typically settles in midfield and should be suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Dropping in class looks a positive.
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2Bollin Neil55/100
Bollin Neil is a limited performer who has won five times at Catterick from 22 starts. He steps up in trip today having last run over 1m6f yet has won at this distance. Tim Easterby has a 12% strike rate here from 1,955 runs which is above their 9% at other courses while jockey Jake Dickson has a 15% strike rate at the track from 13 rides. The 10-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead and has two wins from 12 starts on soft ground with a further six placed efforts. Dropping in class adds to his appeal.
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3Ebony Maw49/100
Ebony Maw is a limited performer who has won once from five runs at this track and steps back up to a trip at which he has also scored once from five starts. He has been competitive on soft ground without winning, placing six times from 14 starts, and arrives in ordinary recent form. The trainer's 8% strike rate at Catterick from 39 runs is in line with his record elsewhere while Jason Hart has a 14% strike rate at the venue from 525 rides. Usually prominent, he could find himself in the thick of the strong pace.
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4Corsican Caper49/100
Corsican Caper is a limited performer who has won once from two runs at Catterick. He has three wins from 11 starts on soft ground and has also won over today's trip though he drops back from 2m2f. Sean Dylan Bowen has a 27% strike rate at the track from 11 rides while the trainer's small sample of two runs here is too limited to judge. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the likely strong pace that could collapse in the straight.
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5Habari47/100
Habari is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in nine starts and arrives here with recent form of 007-87. He steps up markedly in trip on ground he has never encountered while making his first visit to Catterick. The yard holds a 13% strike rate at the track from 16 runs and the combination with Shane Gray has a 33% strike rate from 21 runs. Usually held up, he could be ideally placed if the strong pace does collapse late.
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6Lilykoy47/100
Lilykoy is a limited performer who has shown some consistency lately with form figures of 834312. She has run twice at Catterick without placing and is unproven on soft ground having never tackled it. Dropping back in trip today asks a fresh question of this 49-rated 3-year-old who usually races prominently.
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7Masterpiece46/100
Masterpiece is a limited performer who has shown little in four runs this year and carries a basement official rating of 34. The yard records a 13% strike rate at Catterick from 45 runs while Rhys Elliott has a 5% strike rate at the track from 38 rides. Soft ground looks unproven and the drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of this hold-up performer.
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8Fairydale45/100
Fairydale is a limited performer who has shown enough at this level to win once over this trip and once at Catterick from three starts here. He has handled soft ground in two runs without placing and arrives in reasonable form having won at this trip last time. Usually a front-runner, he is likely to be prominent in a race where the pace is expected to be strong.
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9Flag of Eva41/100
Flag of Eva is a modest performer who has shown little impact in six starts this year with a string of mid-pack finishes. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Usually prominent, he could be involved early in what is likely to be a strongly-run race.
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10Two Plus Two40/100
Two Plus Two is a limited performer who has been a regular in this grade yet remains winless after 37 starts. First run at Catterick and no experience on soft ground add two fresh questions at this trip where he has been tried only once. A hold-up performer, he could be suited by the expected strong pace.
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11Lion City39/100
Lion City is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts this year and carries a basement official rating of 42. He drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous runs at this distance, while his sole soft-ground effort also brought no reward. The trainer has only two runs at Catterick so the sample is too small to judge.
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12Golden Samba39/100
Golden Samba is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and carries an official rating of 43. Stepping up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m2f, with just one previous try at this distance that brought no success. A front-runner, he is likely to be on the speed in a race with a strong pace expected.
KTB verdict
Rock On Pedro heads the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. He has dropped to a workable mark, has form on soft ground and at the trip, and benefits from the yard's solid record at Catterick. The strong pace should suit his midfield style if the leaders go hard and fold. Main dangers are Bollin Neil, who knows the track well and has won over the distance, Corsican Caper who is proven at Catterick and on soft ground from a hold-up position, and Ebony Maw who has course form and can race handily.
KTB Selection Rock On Pedro
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Rock On Pedro | 7/1 | BoyleSports, 12:02am |
| Bollin Neil | 10/1 | BetTom, 12:02am |
| Ebony Maw | 8/1 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Corsican Caper | 9/4 | BoyleSports, 12:02am |
| Habari | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Lilykoy | 7/2 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Masterpiece | 22/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Fairydale | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Flag of Eva | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Two Plus Two | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Lion City | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Golden Samba | 20/1 | BoyleSports, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Catterick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are likely to set or contest the strong pace?
Fairydale and Golden Samba tend to make the running while Lilykoy, Ebony Maw, Bollin Neil and Flag of Eva usually race prominently.
Who is best placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses late?
Hold-up horses such as Corsican Caper, Habari, Masterpiece and Two Plus Two are suited by the expected pace shape.
Which horses have previous soft-ground form at this track or trip?
Rock On Pedro has a win from two starts on soft and has won at the trip, Bollin Neil has two wins from 12 on soft with six places and has won at the distance, Corsican Caper has three wins from 11 on soft, Ebony Maw has placed six times from 14 on soft, and Fairydale has handled soft in two runs.
Which trainers have the strongest records at Catterick in this race?
Olly Murphy has a 24% strike rate at Catterick from 34 runs, Dylan Cunha has a 24% strike rate from 17 runs, and Tim Easterby has a 12% strike rate from 1,955 runs which is above his 9% at other courses.
Which horses are stepping up or down markedly in trip?
Habari steps up markedly in trip, Flag of Eva steps up markedly in trip, Golden Samba steps up markedly in trip having last run over 1m2f, Lilykoy drops back in trip, Masterpiece drops back in trip, and Corsican Caper drops back from 2m2f.
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