4:10 Catterick
This Class 4 handicap over 1m4f13y at Catterick on soft ground features a field of ten with a genuinely-run pace shape that should provide a fair test. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by the 3-year-old Sassicaia on 58, with Aequitas, Pol Roger, Arrange and Golden West all closely matched between 47 and 52. Several runners step up or down in trip while the majority remain unproven on soft ground, adding layers of uncertainty to a competitive-looking renewal.
How the race shapes up
With a front-runner in Something likely to be pressed by several prominent runners including Sassicaia, Pol Roger, Arrange and Talismans Time, the race should unfold at a genuine gallop. This sets up a proper test where those racing handily will need to stay every yard on the soft surface while the held-up types such as Golden West, Falcon Nine, Oracle Mission and Kasgani look to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate matters or if the race will fall to a strong traveller in the later stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sassicaia KTB Selection58/100
Sassicaia is a fair 3-year-old with five runs under his belt and a recent sequence of 1-4353 that shows some ability. He steps up in trip to 1m4f today for the first time and the going suitability remains unknown with such a light career record. Owen Burrows has a 25/95 (26%) record when teaming up with Callum Rodriguez, who himself has a 19% strike rate at Catterick from 142 rides. The yard has a 50% strike rate at the track from only four runs, too small a sample to judge fully. Sassicaia races prominently, usually on or close to the lead, and is the KTB Selection. His family line shows he is half-brother to Kingmont who won once from nine runs, with the dam having had one other winning runner.
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2Aequitas52/100
Aequitas is a fair performer who ran creditably when third at York last time on his first start for this yard. He steps up in trip today having won at this distance earlier in his career. David O'Meara has an 11% strike rate at Catterick from 554 runs with Mark Winn, in line with the yard's record elsewhere, though the jockey is 0-3 at the track from a small sample. Aequitas typically settles in midfield and remains unproven on soft ground. His dam has had one other runner who did not win. The 4-year-old arrives with an official rating of 82 and recent form figures of 100-73.
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3Pol Roger50/100
Pol Roger is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year with two wins from his last six starts. He has shown some aptitude for soft ground with three placed efforts from seven runs yet remains winless at this trip from two attempts and was only fourth on his sole visit to Catterick. Michael Dods has an 11% strike rate at the track from 533 runs while 5lb claimer Rhys Elliott is aboard with a 5% strike rate from 38 rides at Catterick. The 6-year-old races prominently with high confidence in that run-style and carries an official rating of 82 with recent form figures of 412104.
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4Arrange49/100
Arrange is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with a string of placed efforts. He has won over this trip and on this track from five runs here, plus he has placed form on soft ground with one win and five places from seven runs. Martin Todhunter has a 6% strike rate at Catterick from 327 runs which is below his record elsewhere while Lauren Young rides with a 0% strike rate from eight rides at the track. The 8-year-old steps up in class, races prominently and arrives with recent form figures of 622322 and an official rating of 70.
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5Golden West47/100
Golden West is a modest performer who has been placed without winning at this trip and showed his best effort here when second over course and distance on his only visit. Tim Easterby has a 12% strike rate at Catterick from 1,955 runs, above their 9% at other tracks, while jockey David Allan is 11% from 977 rides at the course. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late with high confidence in that style. He has two runs on soft with no win or place, comes into this on the back of mixed recent form of 925872 and holds an official rating of 74.
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6Talismans Time46/100
Talismans Time is a fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning. Dropping back from 2m to an untried 1m4f poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is now applied. Edward Bethell has a 21% strike rate at Catterick from 48 runs in line with their record elsewhere and the horse makes its first appearance here.
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7Falcon Nine45/100
Falcon Nine is a limited performer who has been knocking on the door of late with three consecutive seconds. He steps up in trip today having placed once at this distance and is unproven on soft ground after no previous runs on it. Iain Jardine operates at an 8% strike rate here which is in line with their record elsewhere while the 6-year-old is held up in his run-style.
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8Oracle Mission45/100
Oracle Mission is a fair performer who showed useful form when third on debut before winning a maiden at Kempton. Has been well held in two handicaps since and now steps up in trip for the first time. Harry Eustace records a 14% strike rate at Catterick from 14 runs while the 3-year-old is held up in his run-style.
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9Kasgani44/100
Kasgani is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form at best on his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to win or place in three previous tries at this distance while his sole run on soft ground also brought no reward. Declan Carroll’s 10% strike rate at Catterick is in line with his record elsewhere and the 4-year-old is held up in his run-style.
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10Something40/100
Something is a fair sort who has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts. Has run well enough here in the past without winning and acts on soft ground though is yet to score on it. Liam Bailey's 3% strike rate at Catterick is in line with his record elsewhere while the 5-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace.
KTB verdict
Sassicaia is the KTB Selection. The 3-year-old brings a progressive profile and a prominent run-style that should suit the expected genuine pace, while his yard's healthy strike rate at Catterick adds to the appeal despite the unknown stamina and going factors. He is closely matched on the KTB numbers with Aequitas, who brings prior winning form at the trip, and Pol Roger, who has soft-ground placed form but questions over this distance and course. Arrange and Golden West both have strong course records and consistency in their favour, though the latter may find the prominent pace a touch hot from the rear. The race looks set to be decided by who handles the step up in trip and the soft ground best.
KTB Selection Sassicaia
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Sassicaia | 9/4 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Aequitas | 11/2 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Pol Roger | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Arrange | 15/2 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Golden West | 11/2 | BetTom, 12:02am |
| Talismans Time | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Falcon Nine | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Oracle Mission | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Kasgani | 10/1 | BetTom, 12:02am |
| Something | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:10 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Catterick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time having shown ability in five previous runs?
Sassicaia steps up in trip to 1m4f today for the first time having shown some ability in a recent sequence of 1-4353.
Which runner has won over this trip earlier in his career and ran creditably when third at York last time?
Aequitas ran creditably when third at York last time on his first start for this yard and steps up in trip having won at this distance earlier in his career.
Who has shown aptitude for soft ground with three placed efforts from seven runs but was only fourth on his sole visit to Catterick?
Pol Roger has shown some aptitude for soft ground with three placed efforts from seven runs yet remains winless at this trip from two attempts and was only fourth on his sole visit to Catterick.
Which horse has won over this trip and on this track while arriving on a string of placed efforts?
Arrange has won over this trip and on this track from five runs here, has placed form on soft ground and has been consistent of late with a string of placed efforts.
Who showed his best effort here when second over course and distance on his only visit and is held up in his run-style?
Golden West showed his best effort here when second over course and distance on his only visit, is usually held up and produces its effort late.
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