3:40 Doncaster
This Class 2 Betfred Mallard Handicap over 1m6f115y at Doncaster on good ground brings together nine useful performers in a steadily-run, tactical affair. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Fantasy World heading the numbers on 63, followed closely by Say What You See on 59, Valedictory on 58 and Ernst Blofeld on 57. Dropping in class looks a positive for the selection while several others step up in trip or try the course for the first time, adding layers of unknowns to an already open-looking renewal.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay. With the top four principals all confirmed hold-up types, along with several others in the field, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from the rear. The key question will be whether any horse can muster a telling late effort on this track when the tempo lifts inside the final two furlongs, or whether one of the more patiently ridden runners can pick up the pieces effectively.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Fantasy World KTB Selection63/100
Fantasy World is a useful performer who has won three times and shown consistent form in stronger company. He drops in class today, which is a positive, though he has only had one run at this trip and just a placed effort on good ground so far, leaving some questions about the exact conditions. The Andrew Balding yard posts a 14% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.02 from 459 runs, while Oisin Murphy has a 16% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.92 from 322 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be ridden for a late run in a race where being handy pays. Both trainer and jockey hold solid records at the track.
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2Say What You See59/100
Say What You See is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with three wins from his last six starts. He has already placed over course and distance at Doncaster and handles good ground well with two wins from six runs. This represents his first try at this longer trip, which asks a fresh question. The Liam Bailey yard has a 16% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.66 from 19 runs, while Billy Garritty has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.81 from 82 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from off the pace in what is set to be a steadily-run affair.
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3Valedictory58/100
Valedictory is a useful performer who has run to a similar level on his last four starts and finished a creditable third when tried here over two miles in the spring. He drops back in trip today for the first time, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is another unknown. The John & Thady Gosden yard holds a 23% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.04 from 168 runs and the stable has strong course connections. Robert Havlin has a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.95 from 324 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to time his run well in a tactical contest.
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4Ernst Blofeld57/100
Ernst Blofeld is a useful performer who has run to a solid level on his better days and arrives here in reasonable form after a pair of placed efforts earlier in the season. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while he has shown no win or place from three runs on good ground. The Hamad Al Jehani yard holds a strong 25% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.34 from 16 runs. Callum Rodriguez has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 165 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be reliant on the race unfolding to suit from the rear.
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5Dancing In Paris52/100
Dancing In Paris is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after a win over 2m last time. He drops back in trip today to something untried, which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Doncaster. The Ian Williams yard strikes at 11% here from a big sample of 540 runs and the horse has a good record on good ground with three wins from 12 runs.
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6Arqoob49/100
Arqoob is a useful performer who has been in decent form this year with two wins in his last five starts. He has never won or placed in three runs here and steps up in trip today having failed to score in one previous try at this distance. The Lucy Wadham yard and Harry Davies both have solid records at the track.
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7Team Player49/100
Team Player is a useful performer who has won on good ground and arrives in solid recent form. He drops back from two miles today which asks a fresh question, while the first run at Doncaster is simply unknown rather than a negative. The Ewan Whillans yard has a 0% strike rate from 12 runs here but the jockey has shown a 12% strike rate from 49 rides at the track.
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8All In You47/100
All In You is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning twice on good ground last year. He drops back from 2m4f to a trip he has already won over, which looks a positive, while his record on good ground is a solid 1-1. Trainer and jockey both have established records at Doncaster though neither figure stands out.
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9Boatswain46/100
Boatswain is a useful performer who has shown decent form this year, including a win over 1m6f at Newmarket in June. He drops back from 2m last time and that trip change poses a fresh question while he has only placed once from three runs on good ground. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard holds a solid 19% strike rate at Doncaster from 68 runs.
KTB verdict
Fantasy World is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with three wins to his name and proven consistency in stronger company, he drops in class here while trainer and jockey both bring solid Doncaster records to the table. The steadily-run pace should suit his usual hold-up style if he can produce his effort at the right time. Main dangers are Say What You See, who brings strong recent form and course-and-distance placing, Valedictory who was third over further here in the spring, and Ernst Blofeld who represents a trainer in excellent form at the track.
KTB Selection Fantasy World
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class?
Fantasy World is dropping in class.
Who is wearing first-time headgear?
Valedictory is wearing first-time headgear.
Which horses are making their first start at this trip?
Say What You See, Valedictory and Ernst Blofeld are all having their first try at this trip or stepping up in trip for the first time.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Doncaster in this field?
Hamad Al Jehani has a 25% strike rate at Doncaster from 16 runs.
How many of the principals are confirmed hold-up types?
All four principals — Fantasy World, Say What You See, Valedictory and Ernst Blofeld — are usually held up and produce their effort late.
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