4:18 Nottingham
A competitive Class 5 handicap over 1m2f50y at Nottingham on good ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Didaar heading the list on 64, closely followed by Renesmee and Crimson Road on 62, while several others sit in the mid-50s. Recent form is mixed across the board and the strong pace anticipated should play a significant role in how the race unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is expected to be strong, which could lead to a late collapse and play into the hands of hold-up horses. New Bay Star, Garden Oasis, Pleasant Man, Why Not Me and Roman Secret all tend to race prominently or on the pace, setting up what looks a stiff test up front. The key question is whether any of the hold-up performers, of which there are several including the top three in the KTB Fit order, can time their runs to best effect off this strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Didaar KTB Selection64/100
Didaar is a modest performer who has won once from two runs at Nottingham and also has a win at today's trip. Recent form is mixed, showing a solid third on his penultimate start before being well held last time after a step up in distance. The 5-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Trainer Gihan Arnolda has a 50% strike rate at Nottingham from a small sample with an A/E of 2.48, while jockey Jack Dace has a 14% strike rate here from 7 rides with an A/E of 1.09. He is placed once from four starts on good ground and his course record stands at one win from two runs.
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2Renesmee62/100
Renesmee is a modest performer who has won over this trip in the past but has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. She did win on her only previous run here and both the yard and jockey have above-average strike rates at the track. The 6-year-old is held up and usually produces her effort late. Trainer Michael Keady has an 11% strike rate at Nottingham from 19 runs with an A/E of 1.07, while jockey Kyle McHugh has a 17% strike rate here from 12 rides with an A/E of 1.19. She has two wins from eight starts on good ground and her course record is one win from one run.
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3Crimson Road62/100
Crimson Road is a modest performer who has been in excellent heart of late with four wins from his last six starts. He has won five times at today's trip from 13 attempts and the draw in stall 1 could be a plus. The 5-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Trainer John & Rhys Flint have a 25% strike rate at Nottingham from 4 runs with an A/E of 3.3, while jockey Adam Wedge has no record at the track. He is yet to win or place from seven starts on good ground and his course record from two runs is fourth and eighth.
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4Celestias Comet57/100
Celestias Comet is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning over this trip at Nottingham last time. He has a solid one win from one course record here. The 4-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer James Fanshawe has a 16% strike rate at Nottingham from a large sample of 427 runs with an A/E of 1, while jockey Jonny Peate has a 9% strike rate here from 33 rides with an A/E of 0.77. He is zero from two on good ground.
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5New Bay Star57/100
New Bay Star is a modest performer who has shown ability on a couple of occasions but has been well held in his last two starts. The 3-year-old steps up in trip today having been placed once over this distance without winning, while he has only run once on good ground. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. Trainer Michael Appleby has a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 624 runs with an A/E of 1.24, while jockey Ray Dawson has a 15% strike rate here from 110 rides with an A/E of 1.07. He has no course form on record.
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6Expressionless53/100
Expressionless is a modest performer who knows this track well having won three of six starts here. He drops back from 1m6f to a trip where he has placed three times without winning and acts on good ground. Trainer Dylan Cunha has an 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 44 runs with an A/E of 1.18, while jockey Joanna Mason has an 8% strike rate here from 88 rides with an A/E of 0.7.
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7Mohaab53/100
Mohaab is a modest performer who has won once here from a single visit and also scored at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy with a string of lesser efforts after an early 1-4-2 burst this year. Trainer William Muir & Chris Grassick have a 23% strike rate at Nottingham from 40 runs with an A/E of 2.12, while the horse's record on good ground is so far unconvincing.
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8Taradif52/100
Taradif is a modest performer who has shown little sign of progress in six starts to date and finished well held in a similar race last time. The step up in trip is an unknown at this stage. Trainer Jessica Macey has a 6% strike rate at Nottingham from 33 runs with an A/E of 0.64, while jockey Sean Levey has a 16% strike rate here from 164 rides with an A/E of 1.21. He has no runs on good ground.
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9Garden Oasis50/100
Garden Oasis is a modest 11-year-old who has been knocking at the door without winning lately and now steps up in trip for the first time in a while. He has placed at this distance in the past but his only run here was poor and the yard's modest strike-rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. On good ground he is proven at least.
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10Public Enemy47/100
Public Enemy is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form at a low level without winning in three starts this year. He drops back from 2m3f to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Edward Smyth-Osbourne has a 0% strike rate at Nottingham from 4 runs with an A/E of 0, while jockey Alistair Rawlinson has a 10% strike rate here from 155 rides with an A/E of 0.9.
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11Pleasant Man46/100
Pleasant Man is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 331385 that includes three placed efforts. He has two wins from 12 starts on good ground and has been placed twice from four runs at this trip though he has never won over it. The yard has only a small sample here while the jockey is still seeking a first Nottingham winner from 11 rides.
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12Why Not Me42/100
Why Not Me is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts, finishing second on debut before two respectable placed efforts. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Stuart Williams has a 7% strike rate at Nottingham from 245 runs with an A/E of 0.62, while jockey Marco Ghiani has a 15% strike rate here from 68 rides with an A/E of 0.99.
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13Crimson Rambler40/100
Crimson Rambler is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing second twice at this track and placing on good ground. He steps up in trip today having already shown he can be competitive at this distance, though the extra yardage remains a question. Trainer Matt Crawley has a 0% strike rate at Nottingham from 3 runs with an A/E of 0, while jockey Liam Wright has an 8% strike rate here from 13 rides with an A/E of 0.47.
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14Roman Secret38/100
Roman Secret is a limited horse who has been a regular at Nottingham and usually puts in an honest shift, finishing second twice and third once from five runs here. He has won over today's trip but his overall record shows more modest form than progressive, with a recent sequence of 163815 that mixes the occasional win with plenty of lesser efforts. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate at the track.
KTB verdict
Didaar is the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer with a win from two runs at Nottingham and a win at today's trip, and his held-up style should be well suited to the strong pace that is likely. The recent solid third adds encouragement, and the trainer-jockey combination brings respectable figures at the track. Main dangers include Renesmee, who has a previous win here and above-average yard and rider stats at Nottingham, and Crimson Road, who arrives in excellent heart with four wins from his last six starts despite his poor record on good ground.
KTB Selection Didaar
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Didaar and the other hold-up horses, as the strong pace could collapse late and favour those producing their effort from off the pace.
How many wins has Crimson Road had at today's trip?
Five wins at today's trip from 13 attempts.
What is Expressionless's course record at Nottingham?
Won here three times from six starts.
Which horses tend to race prominently in this field?
New Bay Star, Garden Oasis, Pleasant Man, Why Not Me and Roman Secret all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
What is Celestias Comet's course record at Nottingham?
Won here one from one.
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